Note: Make sure you stop by tomorrow morning. There will be significant picks contest bonus potential for the Thanksgiving games.

I have been receiving multiple Tweets and emails all basically alluding to the same idea: the 2012 season for the Chicago Bears is not “over” but expectations for that season have been lowered immensely. My only question is a simple one: why?

What did we learn Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers that we did not already know? We know the Bears were not a legitimate playoff threat without Jay Cutler playing quarterback. We know the offensive line will not hold up, unless given significant assistance, against the best pass rushes in the sport. We know Lovie Smith’s defenses, even when playing their best, are prone to a disastrous night or two along the way. (2006 Dolphins, anyone?) We know the head coach is a solid leader of men but rarely gets the best of the top tier head coaches in the league. And I believe we have learned over the course of this season’s first ten games that Mike Tice is a fun interview and a somewhat awful offensive coordinator.

But suddenly, because the Bears have caught in the standings by the prohibitive preseason Super Bowl favorite, the alien spacecraft has settled above the Lakefront with its death beam pointed directly at Soldier Field. Rahm has declared a state of emergency. Production on the new season of Boss has been delayed. There is a sign on the front door of the Green Mill Lounge reading “How Can You Think of Jazz at a Time Like This?”

Remember, this is the new NFL. There are not great teams on a consistent week-to-week basic in the regular season. Houston needed two scores in overtime to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Super Bowl champion Giants were trounced in Cincinnati the last time they took the field. Did you see Green Bay and Atlanta win Sunday? Did either impress you even remotely? The Patriots run a tight end specific offense and may not have a healthy tight end on the field for a month. I’m not arguing the Bears are a great team. They’re not. Not with Tice calling the plays and those five fellas up front blocking. What I am arguing is there are NO great teams anywhere to be found in the NFL these days.

To make Monday night the game by which you judge the season seems foolish. If the defense does not show up, as they did not against Colin Kaepernick and the boys, the Bears don’t have a chance to beat a good team without their starting quarterback. This Bears club, perhaps more than any other team in the sport, can not erase large deficits because they can’t protect the passer down for down over the long haul of a second half.

The 2012 Bears have a specific identity. They play ferocious defense, turn you over, keep the game close and blow your doors off in the fourth quarter with a quarterback who has dominated late. Will that identity hold through the duration of the regular season and into January? We don’t have to guess. Minnesota and Seattle are their prime competitors for the wild card spot in the NFC and they are three of the next four dates on the calendar. Green Bay is the fourth, at Soldier Field, to possibly decide the division title. If the Bears go 3-1 over these next four nobody will remember the Monday night meltdown.

And then we’ll see where expectations sit.

The truth is this: we don’t know what Monday night in San Francisco meant. We don’t know if it’s the beginning of a second-half meltdown or merely an example of the Bears coaching staff being outmatched by a more talented group. The focus must shift to Minnesota – the biggest game of the Bears season. Thoughts on last night…

• Was the Bears game plan for Vernon Davis really a combination of Major Wright and Lance Briggs in coverage?
• Have the Bears not seen tape of Aldon Smith? How could it be that I spent more time attempting to scheme ways to block one of the best rushers in the game than they did?
• 3rd and 3. First drive of the game. Do the Bears not have a short pass in the playbook? Does every third down have to involve the quarterback dropping into a deep pocket?
• Was I wrong about Jason Campbell? Well I sure wasn’t RIGHT. But I’d like to see him play this game not trailing by seventeen points at essentially the opening whistle.
• Have you ever seen a wide receiver run a worse route than Devin Hester’s intercepted out route?
• Gabe Carimi looks defeated out there and it’s understandable. When you’re getting thrown to the ground on Monday Night Football you know it’s only a matter of time before you are no longer part of the starting unit. I know he’s a good run blocker. But he’s not that good.
• Hi, J’Marcus Webb. Welcome back.
• Missing tackles? The Bears have missed about 5 tackles all year! They missed 50 last night!
• Until further notice, the Major Wright to the Pro Bowl chatter has to quiet down. On a night the Bears gave Wright a prominent defensive role, he folded.
• I can’t remember Bears linebackers looking so feeble. Did you see Lance Briggs get pancaked by a running back? The LB play is one reason I’m willing to write this off as an exception rather than the rule.
• No pass rush.
• No running game.
• No blocking.
• Let’s spend a minute or two on the coaching. I’m going to give Lovie & Rod a pass because they’ve anchored the best defensive unit in Chicago for some time. But it time to recognize that Mike Tice and Jeremy Bates are not going to find their rhythm in 2012. (And I’m not sure 2013 looks very good either.)
• Nice punting, Adam Podlesh. You saved your first night of decent kicks for a night the Bears didn’t need ’em. (But it’s a step…)
• I do like seeing Devin Hester catch punts and run backwards. There’s something old timey about it.

There’s more. But really, what’s the point? The Bears were shellacked on the road by a very good team. Are the Bears a very good team? I think so, yes. But fans are right to question whether they’re a true contender for a title. Those same conversations happened in San Francisco when the Giants embarrassed them and in New York when the giants laid an egg in Cincinnati. The only way you can answer the question is by winning the following week.

Three final thoughts:

• If Mike Tice throws it more than he runs it tonight we may be entering “he’s not fit to be an offensive coordinator” territory. You don’t have to average 6 yards a clip but if the Bears veer away from the ground game at any point they will end up exposing their issues in pass protection to a ferocious rush.
• I don’t believe in litmus test games in November but this is absolutely a litmus test game for Adam Podlesh. We are likely to see twenty punts and Podlesh can’t put the Niners in position to be in field goal range over a first down or two. He needs to have his best game tonight.
• I wouldn’t want to make my first career NFL start against this Bears defense. I think Colin Kaepernick starting for the concussed Alex Smith is a HUGE deal. Smith is not flashy but he’s consistent, accurate and mistake free. Can Kaepernick string together six or seven throws in a row to beat this defense? I don’t see it.

Bear down. Cowbear lost on Sunday night but he’s never lost on Monday.

I wrote a stunning game preview on Wednesday of late week. I was spinning prose like Dickens and finding better videos than Red Tube on its best day. Each time my fingers hit the keyboard I could, for the first time, imagine what Orwell must have felt as he tapped into his old Remington, “It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.”

Then Alex Smith passed his concussion test.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.

PERTINENT STATISTICS

• You think scoring will be easy? Niners allow 14.1 points per game. Bears allow 14.8 points per game. You can’t run on either. Can’t throw on either. They’re good.
• Bears have a +14 turnover ratio. Niners have a +4.
• Vernon Davis has 29 catches, 404 yards and 4 touchdowns.
• Kellen Davis has 11 catches, 150 yards and 2 touchdowns.
• Chicago quarterbacks have been sacked 28 times. San Francisco quarterbacks have been sacked 29 times. Chicago has sacked opposing quarterbacks 26 times. San Francisco has sacked opposing quarterbacks 17 times.

LESS PERTINENT ANALYSIS

• If the Bears run the ball less than thirty times, they will have made a major tactical error.
• Will Evan Rodriguez be moved to full-time tight end? Will Kyle Adams see his snaps increase? Will Matt Spaeth become more involved in the passing game? My answer to all three: no. I think the Bears will give Kellen Davis one more opportunity to be the pass catching threat they require from the TE position. If he fails, he’s out.
• I think Jason Campbell will play a conservative, mistake-free game for the most part but I also think he’ll take a few deep shots down the field. The return of Alshon Jeffery means those shots will probably go in his direction, not in the direction of Devin Hester.
• I get worried when coaches come down ill midweek and Jim Harbaugh’s irregular heartbeat procedure falls into that category. It always adds a certain “let’s win this for Jim” element that can not be qualified in normal football prognostication.
• I’m assuming the Bears camp Charles Tillman on his old buddy Randy Moss who – trust me – will want nothing to do with that type of physical battle. That means Tim Jennings will spend most of his evening making sure Michael Crabtree doesn’t run wild. Crabtree is finally coming into his own as a wide receiver and he’s doing so with a mix of down field receptions and bubble screens/run after the catch. This won’t be a night about Jennings intercepting the ball. It will be a night about Jennings tackling.
• Who covers Vernon Davis? (Just a question. No answer.)
• When Jay Cutler went down in 2011 we all complained it would expose the lack of talent around backup Caleb Hanie. It did. There is tremendous skill position talent around Jason Campbell now, especially the big wide receiver. Brandon Marshall should catch ten passes tonight, even if those passes are all within three yards of the line of scrimmage. Get the ball to your playmakers and let them make plays. Marshall is the Bears best playmaker.

BUT JEFF, IT’S THE BACKUP QUARTERBACK!

This is what Marshall did against the league’s best corner and Matt Moore as quarterback.

THIS GAME WILL COME DOWN TO SPECIAL TEAMS

I don’t hide my love for special teams. I love punting. I love kickoff coverage. I love field position. I love it all. This is an intriguing special teams battle.

Andy Lee is a great punter – both for distance and direction. On a night like Monday night he’ll rescue the Niners on 3 or 4 occasions. Adam Podlesh has landed maybe 2 or 3 decent kicks all year, including a nice bouncer inside the five against the Texans. The Bears need to hope Podlesh uses that kick as a springboard. I’m doubtful. Advantage 49ers.

Robbie Gould had an uncharacteristic miss in a clutch situation Sunday night but, hey, I’m letting him slide. He’s made too many big kicks in too many big spots to be bothered by a single miss. David Akers is coming off his career year in 2011 but has been awful in 2012, missing 6 kicks through 9 games, including a game-winning 41 yarder against the Rams last week. He missed only 8 in total last year. Advantage Bears.

Return game statistics are always misleading so ignore them. Here’s what you need to know. Ted Ginn Jr. and Devin Hester are both capable of scoring every time they touch the ball. Draw.

THRIVE/SURVIVE!

• Thrive: Cam Worrell blamed Nate Collins for both of the the longer runs on the Texans touchdown drive. Don’t think the Niners won’t notice. If Collins is active Sunday, and he should be, expect Jim Harbaugh to attack him with Frank Gore in much the same way.
• Survive: Aldon Smith will have to choose between J’Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi Monday. I think he chooses the latter. Carimi grades out as one of the best run-blocking tackles in the sport but one of the worst pass protectors.

HAVE SOME SINATRA…

PREDICTION

The Niners have their starting quarterback tonight. They are coming off a tie, at home, to an inferior team. But I don’t trust them to move the ball consistently against the Bears defense and I think Jason Campbell makes just enough plays. (Do I actually think these things? No. I think the Niners will win. But this site has never picked an opponent and we’re not starting now!)

Chicago Bears 13, San Francisco 49ers 10

Apologies to the Reverend’s logo, not pictured. Today’s photo is our draft party ticket winner in the brilliant seats provided her by DaBearsBlog. We’re glad she had a great time. Who will be joining us free of charge for our draft party in 2013? It could be you!

Picks Contest:

Crown has shown weakness. Who will attack? (I will do updated standings of ONLY THOSE WITH WINNING RECORDS next week.)

Home teams in CAPS

WASHINGTON -3.5 Philadelphia

ATLANTA -9 Arizona

Tampa Bay -1.5 CAROLINA

Green Bay -3.5 DETROIT

DALLAS -8 Cleveland

ST. LOUIS -3.5 New York Jets

NEW ENGLAND -9 Indianapolis

HOUSTON -14.5 Jacksonville

Cincinnati -3 KANSAS CITY

New Orleans -4.5 OAKLAND

DENVER -7.5 San Diego

Baltimore -3.5 PITTSBURGH

Side note: You are not out of this yet. There will be three, three, THREE picks contest bonus opportunities on Thanksgiving Day.

Sélection du blogpère: I’ll be rooting hard for Detroit so I’m picking Green Bay, laying three and a half, to keep myself from having a dud of a Sunday. I hope the Packers lose by 60.

Note: At publishing time, Jay Cutler has not been ruled out for Monday night’s game. But I maintain a firm belief that we won’t see Jay until next Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings.

UPDATE 11/16. 11:52 am CT. Jay Cutler has been ruled out Monday night against the 49ers.

When the 2011 season ended, Jason Campbell believed he would find a starting job outside Oakland in 2012. By the start of free agency he understood that to be unlikely and on the first day of the signing period inked a surprising $3.5 million contract to backup Jay Cutler for the Chicago Bears. It was a coup for new Bears GM Phil Emery; a man determined to never allow another season on the Lakefront be Hanie’d.

I imagine the conversation between Jason Campbell and his agent went something like this:

Campbell: So there’s no starting jobs out there?

Agent: No.

Campbell: What’s the best backup job out there?

Agent: Well, there are possibilities.

Campbell: Okay…

Agent: The Jets have Mark Sanchez but they are running an offense from the Triassic Period and their best running back is Shonn Greene.

Campbell: That doesn’t sound good.

Agent: And their owner never takes his baseball cap off. Never trust a man over 50 in a baseball cap.

Campbell: What else?

Agent: The Rams are looking for a backup to Sam Bradford but you’ll more than likely be mopping up losses for a four-win teams.

Campbell: No mops.

Agent: Okay.

Campbell: Is that it?

Agent: The Bears.

Campbell: Cold there…

Agent: Yea but…

Campbell: Real cold…

Agent: Only in the winter.

Campbell: I’m from Mississippi.

Agent: Yes, yes…

Campbell: Went to Auburn…

Agent: Went UNDEFEATED at Auburn one year!

Campbell: Don’t remind me.

Agent: Sorry.

Campbell: Undefeated in the SEC! Undefeated in the gosh darn SEC with Cadillac and Ronnie and Carlos and Marcus McNeil and –

Agent: I know.

Campbell: It’s cold in Chicago.

Agent: They are a good team. Potentially great team. But their offensive line can’t pass protect and the backup quarterback is always ten seconds away from taking over a playoff run. Did you see what Caleb Hanie walked into last year?

Campbell: Who?

Agent: Caleb Hanie.

Campbell: Never heard of him.

Agent: He’s the night manager at a Denver Chik-Fil-A but last year he was the backup quarterback in Chicago. Took over a 7-3 team and ran them into the ground. Imagine that were you…

Campbell: What?

Agent: Imagine you were taking over a 7-3 team.

Campbell: Yea.

Agent: Right?

Campbell: That’d be nice.

Agent: You take over that 7-3, win a couple games and you’re in the playoffs. Then you showcase your talent for the league. You’ll be starting again the next season.

Campbell: I like it.

Agent: Should we sign there?

Campbell: How much?

Agent: I can get them to $3.5 million.

Campbell: Not bad.

Agent: I’m good at my job.

Campbell: See if they’ll throw in a coat.

Monday night is Campbell’s night. Its an opportunity to peddle his wares for the whole of the league, on national television, against one of the best defenses in the sport. Campbell is not Todd Collins, an old man trying to stabilize the position. He is not Josh McCown, a journeyman trying to capitalize on a last shot at NFL success. He is not Caleb Hanie, a young quarterback trying to find a foothold in the league. Campbell is trying to prove to every GM in this nation he is worthy of being their opening day starter in September 2013. (And if he’s unable to do that, he’s trying to show Phil Emery he’s worth a long-term extension as Cutler’s backup.)

How can he do it? It won’t be by flinging the ball forty yards whenever he sees Devin Hester running down the sideline. No NFL franchise will be signing Campbell this offseason to be the second coming of Dan Fouts. It will be by handing the ball to Forte and Bush 40 times. It will be by avoiding the edge rush and using his legs to extend plays/move the chains. It will be by putting together a stat line that looks something like this: 14-20, 189 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT.

Most importantly, it will be by winning – by beating the Niners and their defense in their house. If Campbell does that Monday night I would imagine folks in New Jersey, Arizona and Kansas City would take notice. I know the folks at Halas Hall will.

Picks Contest Bonus

• Simple: Give me C.J. Spiller’s total yards from scrimmage (running + receiving + passing) for the Buffalo Bills. I think Spiller is one of the best and least utilized backs in football and I think he’ll have a breakout night at home against the Dolphins. My number: 188.
• Get it right and you’ll eliminate one of your incorrect weeks.

______________________________________

This is one of the great sport columns of the year. It is a scathing criticism of football’s largest bag of douches, Dave Wannstedt:

There may not be a more unpopular figure to general Buffalo-area sports fans, let alone die-hard fans of the area’s professional football team, than Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt. Promoted to that post following the 2011 season and blessed with more individual talent at his disposal than any Bills coordinator has had in recent memory, Wannstedt’s Bills defense is currently ranked No. 31 in the NFL, including dead last against the run.

Jason Cole, a reporter who covered the Miami Dolphins in the early 2000s when Wannstedt was their head coach (and who is now a national reporter for Yahoo! Sports), spoke with WGR 550’s The Howard Simon Show on Monday and touched on the topic of Wannstedt. His opinion of Wannstedt is, to put it very lightly, less than inspiring.

“Dave is probably one of the worst coaches I have ever seen who rose to that level,” Cole told Simon. He’d later continue, “Dave has no ability to inspire people to play harder. I think he’s a very unimaginative guy.”

Wannstedt, who also was a head coach for the Chicago Bears in addition to Miami, is most famous in NFL circles for being the Dallas Cowboys‘ defensive coordinator on two Super Bowl teams in the early 1990s. (Bills fans will remember those Cowboys teams well.) Cole believes that his success in Dallas had more to do with Johnson and the way the two coaches worked together.

“He was a great foil in Dallas for Jimmy Johnson,” Cole opined. “Jimmy would come in and play the bad cop role, and then Dave would come in and be the nice guy, and say ‘oh guys, we’ll get it together, don’t worry. Jimmy’s just going nuts, don’t worry about him.'”

Cole also spoke briefly of the 2002 season in Miami, when the Dolphins – blessed with the NFL’s leading rusher (Ricky Williams) and the No. 1 overall defense in the league – blew a division lead to miss the playoffs. After Week 15 that year, the Dolphins were 9-5, a game ahead of the New England Patriots and two ahead of the New York Jets. Miami lost to a 6-10 Minnesota team in Week 16, then dropped an overtime decision to New England in Week 17, allowing the Jets – who won their last two games convincingly – to sneak into the playoffs.

Wannstedt – who would coach parts of two more seasons in Miami – lost the team from that point forward, as Cole explained with the following story (taken verbatim from the WGR 550 interview):

“He stands up in front of the team in a pre-season, and he has a basket – like a trash basket – and then he’s got four things. He’s got a Bible, a family picture, a football and a brick, and he shows how if you keep everything in order, and keep your priorities right, the picture, the football and the Bible will all fit quite nicely in the basket. But if you add the brick – which he called ‘distraction’ – it won’t fit.

“The only problem was that as he did it, he took everything out of the basket, and then he tried to put it back in. This was the football, the Bible and the picture – he tried to put them all back in, but he couldn’t remember the way that they went back in. So he was fumbling around, and then the basket fell over in the middle of all of this. It began just sort of a comedy session.

“When he put the basket back in the locker room later in the week, the players were so frustrated with him that they took the stuff and threw it in the trash can.”

Cole – who, along with the rest of us, has been highly unimpressed with the play of Buffalo’s defense – seems to imply that the bulk of the blame for those shortcomings falls on Wannstedt’s shoulders.

“Dave is not a leader of men,” Cole concluded. “He and Norv Turner have made more money off of their association with Jimmy Johnson than any two human beings ever have deserved to.”

Gets better every time.

I have been having conversations with Cameron Worrell for over a year now and they are one of the highlights of my week. But hearing him discuss his history with concussions and their lingering effects put the entire issue in context for me. We talk football during this chat – why he hates the Niners, Nate Collins, Kaepernick, defensive resentment in the locker room – but it’s the concussion discussion that makes this our finest twenty minutes.

TEE SHIRTS UPDATE!

Sales of this round of tee shirts are closed and final. Unfortunately we can’t accept any more until we switch formats come the New Year. Due to some storm-related issues in the New York area we’re a tad bit delayed on processing the orders but all tee shirts will be processed and mailed by the second week of December. If this is completely intolerable for you, send me and email and we’ll talk about it (jeff@dabearsblog.com). But it shouldn’t be intolerable to you…because they’re tee shirts.

BIGGS BREAKS DOWN 2013 SCHEDULE

If you follow Brad Biggs or any other Bears writer on Twitter, chances are you haven’t been to the sports page sites of the Trib or Sun-Times in a long, long time. (Someone will present this non-existent data to me one of these days proving social media drives traffics to newspaper sites. It doesn’t. They know it.) Here is Brad’s breakdown of 2013:

Of course, the Bears will play the traditional home-and-home with NFC North foes. In addition, the Bears will host Dallas, the New York Giants, Baltimore, Cincinnati and the team with the corresponding finish in the NFC South.

The road trips will be to Philadelphia, Washington, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and the team with the corresponding finish in the NFC West.

So, the way the standings are aligned right now, the Bears would host the Atlanta Falcons and play at San Francisco for the second consecutive season. There is a long ways to go to determine the final standings this season though.

DaBearsBlog (Noah, myself and the Reverend) will be in Cleveland. Will you?

CLARK JUDGE ON JASON CAMPBELL

Here is a large chunk of Clark Judge’s CBS Sports column on Jason Campbell taking over short or long term for an injured Jay Cutler:

“If [Campbell] has to go,” said coach Lovie Smith, “we feel very confident. That’s why we brought Jason here. I’m hopeful, but I’m not ruling Jay out by any means.”

I’m not, either. And I’m definitely not ruling out Chicago of anything. I know the Bears travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers next Monday, and I know the 49ers are always a tough out. But they have issues of their own, with starting quarterback Alex Smith suffering a concussion in Sunday’s tie with St. Louis. That means there’s a chance … and let me emphasize a chance … that it’s Campbell versus Colin Kaepernick, and, given the choice, I’ll take the veteran.

I know what I have in Campbell, and so do the Bears. He can get the ball downfield, as he did with that 45-yard shot to Brandon Marshall. He will make sound and reasoned decisions. He won’t commit the fatal mistake. He can run. He can lead. Most important, he can win … and with Green Bay pulling itself together for a run at the Bears nothing is more important for Chicago now.

As one scout told me, the key is not so much Campbell as it is Forte and Bush. Because if rhe Bears can run the ball, Campbell can sell the play-action — which is his strength. Plus, as he pointed out, the issues with Chicago’s offensive line aren’t as much a factor with Campbell at quarterback because of his ability to flush the pocket. No, he’s not RG3, but, if necessary, he is good enough to make first downs with his legs.

“Jason Campbell is more than capable,” Marshall said. “I think he came in [against the Texans] and did an amazing job and had control of the offense … really got us into some good situations and made some great checks. I think the guys around him need to step up, myself included. We let him [and the team] down, and that won’t happen again.

“I understand what Jason Campbell is. I understand how he leads. Like I said, he’s more than capable, and I’m so glad we have him in situations like this.”

He should be. Everyone in and around the Bears should be. Jason Campbell is here to prevent another collapse from happening … and he will.

Kurt Warner told Waddly & Silvy on ESPN Radio he was confident the Bears could win games with Jason Campbell at QB. I agree. One thing lost on Sunday night was it was Campbell – not Cutler or Schaub – who looked most comfortable under center and managed the conditions best. I think Campbell can beat the Niners Monday night.

MORE JASON CAMPBELL!