Three final things to watch heading into today’s opener:

1. How does Shea McClellin fare on third downs in exclusive pass rushing situations? I expect the Bears to have success on early downs, specifically against the run, and Shea’s emergence opposite Julius Peppers will be key to the Bears getting off the field on defense.
2. How do the Bears tight ends work into the offense? Will Kellen Davis become the primary receiver? (Tony Scheffler had nearly 700 yards in Denver in 2008.) Will Mat Spaeth be strict protection for J’Marcus Webb on the left side? Will Evan Rodriguez have a role in the base offense as a FB/HB hybrid? Will Kyle Adams even be active?
3. How does Urlacher’s knee look after contact? How does he look in the third and fourth quarters?

Bear down.

It is tradition around here.

Bear down.

Enjoy.

Remember you can still make an entry into the the picks contest but that selection must be made on THE INITIAL POST. No picks made on this post or tomorrow’s game thread will be accepted.

The Week’s Lines.

Remember:

• You only pick one team against the spread.
• Once you select the team they are unavailable to you for the remainder of the season.
  
• It is NOT a survival pool. The highest winning percentage at Week 15 will be awarded the prize. If there are ties, we’ll decide in Weeks 16 and 17 by increasing the number of games selected incrementally.
  
• You don’t need to pick every week. But you must make ten selections between Week One and Week Fifteen.
  
• DO NOT MAKE YOUR SELECTION IN THE BODY OF ANOTHER COMMENT. YOUR SELECTION SHOULD BE IT’S OWN COMMENT AND CONTAIN ONLY THE NAME OF THE TEAM YOU ARE SELECTING. (Otherwise it’s a terrible bitch for me to tally up each week.)
• Picks are due by kickoff of the early games Sunday. Picks will only be accepted in the comments of THIS post.
  

(Home team in CAPS)

DENVER -1.5 Pittsburgh

Seattle -3 ARIZONA

Carolina -3 TAMPA BAY

GREEN BAY -5 San Francisco

Atlanta -3 KANSAS CITY

DETROIT -7 St. Louis

HOUSTON -11.5 Miami

MINNESOTA -3.5 Jacksonville

New England -5 TENNESSEE

NEW ORLEANS -7 Washington

NEW YORK JETS -3 Buffalo

Philadelphia -9 CLEVELAND

CHICAGO -10 Indianapolis

And so it begins: the most anticipated season in the modern era of the Chicago Bears. Sunday begins a campaign many believe CAN end with a Super Bowl trophy being hoisted in the great city of New Orleans. But celebratory Pimm’s Cups and muffuletta at the Napoleon House will have to wait until an entire NFL season and postseason are played. Can the Bears make a magical run? We shall see.

Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears This Week?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• Mike Chappell of the Indy Star has documented the Colts’ struggles at corner throughout the preseason. Until they made a seemingly ludicrous trade for Vontae Davis the Colts did not have a second professional corner on the roster. Now they’ve given up a second-round pick for Davis and Davis has the unenviable task of drawing former teammate Brandon Marshall at Soldier Field.
• Robert Griffin did not have big numbers in the third preseason game against the Colts due to his own fault. There were wide open receivers deep all first half. I expect the Bears to take multiple shots on this secondary and put on a show for the home fans.
• What should worry the Bears is the impact of the interior blitz from the Colts. As Freeney and Mathis struggle early to adapt to new positions in a new scheme, I expect Chuck Pagano’s Baltimore roots to shine through as he attempts to overwhelm the interior of the Bears offensive line on obvious passing downs. And he may be successful if the Bears don’t avoid obvious passing downs.
• I don’t expect Andrew Luck to test the back end of the Bears secondary. If he does it is because the Bears are mounting zero pass rush. I think Bruce Arians will settle Luck’s debut by relying on a series of quick slants and screens and Arians will run, run, run until he can’t run anymore. If the Bears can get a lead in this game they could force Luck & Co. into some big game-ending mistakes.
• I think the Bears should dominate the Colts coverage units. Young teams without depth struggle to field solid special teams units.
• I expect the Bears to get Cutler out of the pocket more than we’ve seen all preseason and it should open up pockets downfield. (It also should lead to many of us saying “Oh, that Kellen Davis” on Monday morning.)
• I expect the Bears to play games with Luck all afternoon. I think we’ll see linebackers and defensive backs hovering around the line of scrimmage and disguising blitzes on almost every play.
• If the Bears sack Luck three times Sunday, they’ll win handily.
• I think the Colts will rely on a steady stream in the seam, attempting to test Urlacher’s range in the middle of the field. I don’t think it will be effective.
• Don’t underestimate the energy you’ll feel in Soldier Field. Normally I think this is an overrated element but I’d imagine you’ll be able to sense the expectation while you’re in line for the $10 MGD.
• Hunger. It may sound strange but I believe a lot of Bears will be hungry opening week. I believe Brian Urlacher is hungry to show the media they don’t know shit about his injury. (His comment about David Haugh on Waddle & Silvy Tuesday was a thing of beauty.) I believe Mike Tice is hungry to show he knew what he was doing when he assembled this offensive line. I believe Matt Forte is hungry to show everyone he was worth the drama accompanying his contract extension. I believe Charles Tillman will be hungry to show the Giants preseason game was a meaningless preseason game and some moron Bears fans should shut their mouths. Cutler. Marshall. McClellin. I believe there is far more to prove on the home sideline Sunday than the visitor sideline – where they know the pressure won’t start until year three of this new regime.

My score prediction. The only two times the Bears have made the Super Bowl they opened the season with a 38-28 win over Tampa Bay (1985) and a 26-0 victory over the Packers (2006). I’ll split the difference.

Chicago Bears 32, Indianapolis Colts 14

I’ve never liked the picks contest on the site. It’s always been far too much work for me and the prize was never worth the effort. Then I gave away a pair of lower tier tickets at this year’s Draft Party in Chicago and saw far more fun can be had the better the prize is. And now Ms. Ronetta Smith is going from Cortland’s Garage in Bucktown to Soldier Field on October 28th and sitting downstairs with the fancy lads.

So this year I’ve concocted a new contest and a new prize. A prize I think is fun and will make the contest worth watching/following. First the rules…

PICKS CONTEST RULES

• I will post the point spreads for the Sunday games each Saturday morning. The contest will not involve the Thursday night or Monday night contests. Only the Sunday games. You must have your pick on the site by kickoff of the early games Sunday.
• You pick one game each week against the spread. One game only.
• You can only select a team once. Once you pick a team they are unavailable to you for the remainder of the season. (Survivor pool rules.)
• I know lives get busy and sometimes folks miss posts. But you must make 10 selections over the course of the season to be eligible for the prize. If you do not make ten picks, you’re out. No exceptions.
• The regular season for the contest will end after Week 15 – Sunday, December 16th. If we have a single winner, they will be awarded the prize. If we have multiple individuals tied at the top, we will decide the winner over the final two weeks by increasing the number of selections made.

CONTEST PRIZE

You’ll be invited as special guest of DaBearsBlog to this year’s Round One Draft Party on Thursday night, April 25th at Cortland’s Garage in Bucktown. The prize includes:

• Accommodation for draft night at The Willows Hotel, Lakeview. To see the hotel, CLICK HERE. I’ll also be in the hotel and will gladly take you for a drink at the local spot Monsignor Murphy’s if you so choose.
• DaBearsBlog will cover the open bar for you and a +1 at the event.
• $50 gift certificate for you/wife/husband/family to any of the Lou Malnati’s locations across the Chicagoland area.
• Two automatic entries into the ticket contest giveaway that evening. (We’ll announce the particular game and details once the schedule is released next spring.)
• A pair of 2012 DaBearsBlog tee-shirts.

This is my way of thanking those of you who’ve made this site your home over these years and to show I’m constantly looking for new ways to improve the experience around here. The first spreads will be available here on Saturday.

As the World Champion New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys step onto the field in the New Jersey Meadowlands, we welcome the NFL back into our lives. There is no professional sports league in the world like it. None close. And the NFL celebrates its return with its version of Christmas Eve. The night before the day. (In the case the day is 72 hours away.) And we celebrate its return.

The 2008 Chicago Bears struggled to defend throughout the preseason and on opening night – against the Indianapolis Colts – put on a road clinic and won 29-13. (Adewale Ogunleye looked like he was headed for Defensive Player of the Year honors.) The team finished 9-7 and out of the money. (Ogunleye did NOT win Defensive POY.)

The 2009 Chicago Bears lost to the Green Bay Packers on opening day. Doomsday! Season over! Raining frogs! The Bears subsequently won the next three games and it was hope! Love! Charity! All it took was a bye week for the season to fall apart. 7-9. Well out of the money.

The 2010 Chicago Bears opening day victory over the “lowly” Detroit Lions was overshadowed by a still-popular discussion of officiating. Calvin Johnson ridiculously laid the football to the turf after scoring the “game-winning touchdown” and the local media let us all know the Bears were opening their campaign with an asterisk. The Bears took it to heart. They went to the NFC Championship game.

2011 is fresh in all our minds but do you remember how it started? With an absolute Shermanesque shelling of Atlanta. The Bears dominated the Falcons at Soldier Field 30-12 and all was right with the world. It only took losing three of the next four games – often in glorious fashion – for the entirety of the Bears universe to forget the ecstasy of the opener.

Because we love the NFL. Because we love the Chicago Bears. Because we have all waited nine months to see the Bears play an official NFL game again we are all prone to analyze and over-analyze every snap of this week’s opener against the Indianapolis Colts. We will place way-too-much emphasis on Shea McClellin’s debut, Brian Urlacher’s knee, Cutler’s chemistry with the wide receivers and Evan Rodriguez’ ability to fill the void at fullback. And the truth of the opener is this: the performance has almost no historical connection to the season’s outcome.

The result absolutely does – especially in today’s NFL. The Bears are playing at home. They are almost a double-digit favorite. They are facing a rookie quarterback. That rookie, while much ballyhooed, is leading the worst team in football a year ago. The Bears must win this game because they are the superior team but also because this is the deepest NFC in almost a decade.

And that is a point not to be understated. Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, Panthers, Niners, Panthers…etc. Not only can 9 or 10 of the sixteen conference sides make the postseason but 6 or 7 can actually make the Super Bowl. 10 wins may not be enough to earn the final wild card position, nevertheless top the league’s best team (Green Bay) for the division title. I’ve always believed that the first half of the season is about accumulating victories. The second half of the season is about rounding into playoff form. Due to the talented rosters competing for those six tournament positions I would argue it is as true in 2012 as it ever has been.

The Bears must win Sunday. 3-0. 6-3. 31-0. 43-42 in OT. It does not matter. Style points in week one are the equivalent of good looks in high school. They’re fun to have but when you’re going through a second stint in AA after losing your third wife, the visible jaw bones in that yearbook photo become nothing more than a haunting reminder of what life could have been.

I can’t top that sentence.

I’m taking the holiday weekend off to recharge my batteries for the big, big, big season to come. This post should keep y’all busy til Tuesday.

Each year I like to make a boat load of NFL predictions for the season to come and then evaluate them at year’s end. I figure this: if I make fifty predictions and twenty-five receive a + (as opposed to a – ) when evaluated, I’m doing fine. I think I’ve averaged about 55 – 60% accuracy over the last three years.

There will be 19 Bears-related predictions & one prediction for each of the other 31 teams.

1. I will undoubtedly write a column pushing Brandon Marshall as MVP by November. The rest of the NFL will be realizing Jay Cutler is good (we realized last year) but it will be Marshall responsible for the Bears receiving corps being the most improved single unit in the sport.
2. Jay Cutler will eclipse Erik Kramer’s single-season yardage mark of 3,838.
3. The Bears signature flaw of the 2012 season will not be their offensive line. It will be their defensive line’s inability to generate consistent pressure with the front four.
4. Justin Blackmon will look like a man among boys for the Jacksonville Jaguars and beat both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin (does everyone have to call him RGIII?) for rookie of the year.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers have a down year and go 8-8. (Their quarterback? Still a rapist.)
6. In a conference with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco will start the Pro Bowl for the AFC. (Are they playing that again this year?) Flacco will still whine about how he’s treated by the fierce Baltimore media. (Do they still have a newspaper?)
7. Eagles, everybody’s preseason darling, fail to make the postseason. Someone explain to me how a columnist can write pick the Eagles with the “if Vick stays healthy” caveat. Has he ever stayed healthy? No.
8. Giants, everybody’s forgotten world champion, win the NFC East. They have a motivated, contract-year Osi Umenyiora. Look for a dozen sacks.
9. The Vikings will open 1-0 and win 2 more games the rest of the season, securing them the first overall pick in the draft and USC quarterback Matt Barkley.
10. J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS will not be as bad on offense as they were in preseason. Not great, by any means, but they’ll win games and be battling for the postseason in December.
11. Mark Anderson will have a productive season in Buffalo opposite Mario Williams. I think the Buffalo defensive line will keep them in games all season.
12. Luke Keuchly won’t have big statistics but the Panthers linebacker will be the defensive rookie of the year. I loved two players in this draft. Keuchly and Blackmon.
13. Tim Jennings will have four interceptions.
14. Brian Urlacher will miss four games this season but none in January and February.
15. I’m going to refer to Robbie Gould as Bob Gould this year.
16. Andy Dalton will come back to the earth for the Cincinnati Bengals but they have a wonderful coaching staff and will make the postseason.
17. For some reason I absolutely love the Kansas City Chiefs to beat out the Denver Broncos for the AFC West title. Nobody really talks about how much talent the Chiefs lost to IR in the first five weeks of the 2011 season. They will be back and motivated. Chiefs!
18. Antonio Gates will challenge Gronk as the best statistical tight end in the AFC. I think he’s been struggling with his health for three years and finally has his body in the correct shape.
19. Tom Brady’s protection issues will be a major reason the Patriots are playing on the first weekend of the playoffs and opposed to their patented bye week.
20. The Houston Texans will win the AFC South between Halloween and Thanksgiving.
21. “Say something about the Miami Dolphins, Jeff”. Okay. Done.
22. The Bears will win 11-12 games.
23. Brandon Weeden is going to look like a very silly draft pick to the Cleveland Browns by mid-season when they turn back to Colt McCoy. Or Seneca Wallace. Or Bernie Kosar. Or whoever.
24. How many NFL coaches are (1) in their second year with a team (2) have a track record of failing as a head coach (3) left a major college with a puddle of corruption/sanctions and (4) just turned to a fourth-round rookie as his starting QB? Matt Flynn will see the field this year.
25. The Bears will win the NFC North.
26. San Francisco will wait til Houston wins the AFC South and win the NFC West the following week.
27. I wish I could tell you something interesting about the St. Louis Rams. But all I have to say is I think Sam Bradford is going to have a HUGE comeback season.
28. The Bears will win my heart.
29. Andrew Luck will have a better year than Robert Griffin, Jake Locker and Ryan Timothy Tannehill combined. (Side note, re: Hard Knocks: People should stop telling me how attractive Tannehill’s wife is. Looks like a bird. That southern debutante thing don’t float my boat.)
30. Mike Zimmer’s work with the Bengals defense this year will earn him a head coaching job in 2013.
31. Pierre Garcon will be injured seriously this year. Two reasons I think this: Griffin will leave him hanging over the middle often and he’ll take some big hits on predictable bubble screens.
32. I’d take the over on Devin Hester returning 2.5 kicks for touchdowns this year if Vegas has set that line.
33. Kendall Wright will be Jake Locker’s most reliable target. Not Kenny Britt.
34. I take the under on Dez Bryant breaking 1.5 of his Cowboys-initiated Dez Bryant Rules. (I think he will go to a strip club at some point. It seems these fellas can’t stay away.)
35. Packers will be really good. Fuck em.
36. Lions will not. Yeehaw. And the best thing about the Lions defense? They’ll talk and act very, very tough while stopping no one from moving the ball and scoring.
37. I’ll say one additional thing about each of those teams: I don’t think either will win a Super Bowl without finding a run game to complement the big-strike passing. And I don’t see either finding that on their current roster.
38. I buy the hype: Eric Decker is going to have a monster year catching Peyton Manning passes.
39. I heard Matthew Berry waxing poetic about Carson Palmer the other day on ESPN. And while I couldn’t hear everything he said because I was dry heaving due to the sound of his voice, I know he’s high on Palmer. If Palmer has a great year I will take a -2. He’s been shot for years.
40. I wasn’t going to write anything about the Cardinals and see who noticed. But I’ll write something about the Cardinals. They are going to be a miserable, miserable team and the Vikings’ true competitor for Matt Barkley. (Side note: Has anyone come up with a Suck for Luck thing for Barkley yet? How about Blow for the Tro? Can we make Blow for the Tro happen? Get it done, kids!)
41. Falcons good. Uninspiring, tedious but good.
42. Saints better. Even without half their coaching staff and a few post-prime defenders I just don’t see how the Saints offense misses a beat because Sean Payton is not there. That system is in good hands with Drew Brees.
43. Greg Schiano will feel right at home in Tampa. The former Rutgers head coach knows what its like to not have a very good quarterback. (Side note: Hey Greg! Mike Teel! He’s out there! I just Googled Teel and he’s the quarterbacks coach at Wagner College. He can’t be happy there.) One of my only hopes for the 2012 NFL season is that Schiano brings the ridiculous “choppin wood” sentiment to the pros.
44. Bears will score 27.6 points per game.
45. Bears will allow 16.2 points per game.
46. Brandon Marshall will have 12 touchdown catches.
47. J’Marcus Webb will not be benched at left tackle this season. Take that!
48. AFC Playoff Six: Texans, Ravens, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos, Bengals
49. NFC Playoff Six: Bears, Niners, Giants, Saints, Packers, Falcons
50. I think the Bears will play in the last NFL game of the season.

Make five preseason predictions of your own below. I’ll put the ones I like the best in a column and post it on Tuesday.

I’m leaving this one sit on the site all day as I work on tomorrow’s prediction column. Lovie Smith has admitted the roster decisions have essentially been made so don’t expect to see anything of note happen on the football field tonght. Even still, here’s a few things.

• The only conceivably interesting competition might be for the third running back position, as neither Matt Forte nor Michael Bush will be involved much tonight. Can Armando Allen seize the opportunity to start and usurp Lorenzo Booker – a player whose return prowess has placed him in the spotlight?
• I’d like to see Ryan Quigley have another decent night punting the ball. The Bears were scavenging the waiver wire for a punter this week but I think they’d be making an error by letting Quigley go until they’re sure Adam Podlesh can stay on the field.
• McCown. With word leaking of Brad Biggs that the Bears might consider keeping only two quarterbacks, one wonders if McCown might think he’s playing for a roster spot tonight. My opinion? The Bears are insane to carry two quarterbacks. If McCown were on the roster when Cutler went down last season the Bears would have been in the playoffs.
• I wouldn’t mind seeing Corey Wootton make a single play. Just one. Throw us a bone.

I’ll leave it you guys. Even though I will be watching, convince me to watch. Give me a reason to turn tonight’s game on.

I’m up in the mountains of Woodstock, NY so today will be an abbreviated post. We will have an uber-meaningless fourth preseason game preview column tomorrow and will post my pile of predictions for the 2012 NFL season on Friday.

Tee Shirts

Production has begun and will be completed by tomorrow afternoon. All shirts will be on the road to you by Friday morning. We will be making a second round of shirts available for sale some time after the start of the season (most likely October).

Adios, Mr. Morrissey

I read Rick Morrissey’s inane, worthless diatribe in the Sun-Times this morning out of boredom if nothing else. And I am now fully comfortable with my decision for 2012: I will no longer cite or reflect upon anything written by a Chicago columnist during the 2012 season. I will stick to the folks I respect on the fringe of the Bears coverage: my friends Roy and Adam Oestmann. They are talented individuals with opinions I respect. I can’t say the same about Morrissey, Haugh…etc.

That Does Not Go For the Actual Reporters…

…and Potash does not profile work in the Sun-Times on fullback Tyler Clutts – a player it is quite hard not to root for. I think the Bears would be making a possibly devastating mistake if they believe Evan Rodriguez is capable of anchoring the power run game they’re trying to implement with Matt Forte and the acquisition of Michael Bush. Clutts is the best blocking back on this current roster. He should make this team.