Today’s show comes complete with the Picks Contest Standings.

I can’t remember, in my lifetime, a Bears team that had a winning record this late in the season and elicited so little excitement from fans.  They’ve now had two weeks to ponder their losing streak.  Two weeks to sit in the film room.  Two weeks to read media clippings and doomsday prognostications.

Sunday the Chicago Bears cross the border into the land of moose meat and shady prostitutes lingering outside check cashing establishments a mile from the Niagara Falls casinos.  (I may or may not have firsthand information on this.)  They face the winless but gutsy Buffalo Bills.  A team that has turned a corner in their 2010 campaign.  A team that has taken two superior opponents, in consecutive weeks, on the road, into overtime. 

And if the Bears come back to the states with a .500 record, hanging the Bills their first win of the year, the hourglass will have flipped on Jerry, Lovie and the boys.  This is a not a must-win game for the 2010 season.  That was two weeks ago against the Washington Redskins.  This is a must-win for an organization regime that has designs on signing a new lease on their swanky Chicagoland estates. 

If Lovie Smith’s Chicago Bears lose this week to the Buffalo Bills, he’ll cease to be a concern for fans and media.  His name (as well as Jerry Angelo’s) will be replaced on the airwaves by Bill Parcells, John Fox, Jon Gruden and Bill Cowher.  If the Bears lose to the Bills this week, there is no hope for Lovie Smith.  No possible winning streak to ignite the fans.  No brilliant performance capable of convincing the McCaskey family he’s the man for the job.  If the Bears lose to the Bills this week, the only question that will remain is whether or not the Bears will fall below the Vikings and Lions in the standings as the season progresses.

And the bye week does not help matters.  Fair or not, most analysts use a team’s performance in the aftermath of the bye to accurately evaluate a coach’s ability to adjust mid-season and inspire his team on the field.  We should know about ten minutes into Sunday’s contest whether or not Lovie’s voice has been lost on the 53 men who have been charged with keeping his paychecks coming.  With the Bears, it usually doesn’t take much longer than that.

…and the NFC North picture is becoming more clear by the day.

The New York Jets played an awful lot like the recent Chicago Bears at the Meadowlands this afternoon, turning the ball over on the Packers side of the field three times and allowing their punter to call his own fake with eighteen yards needed on an early fourth down.  (I’m still shaking my head over this.)  With the Packers victory they are now alone at the top of the North, playing the quit-on-the-season Cowboys at Lambeau next Sunday night.

The Minnesota Vikings, at least, have a better record than the Detroit Lions.  Oh wait.  No they don’t.  They have a defense that is struggling when it doesn’t get to the quarterback.  They have a head coach who lacks guts and instincts.  And they have a quarterback who seems hellbent to die on a football field at some point during the 2010 season.  (I think he’s going to get his wish.)

The Bears are in this thing but the Packers are in the pole position.  Beating them early in the season is looking quite significant right now.  Having watched the Bills plays the Chiefs today, the Bears have no excuse not to be 5-3 in seven days.  Having watched the Packers, they have no choice.

Garza Returns to Right Guard

Bears quarterback Jay Cutler said developing the timing with his receivers is ongoing.

“I think it’s always going to be a process, not only for me, but also for the receivers,” he said. “They’ve got to be at the right spot at the right depth at the right time against the right coverage. There’s a lot of variables involved and it’s a process.

We’re still going through it.”

The receivers and quarterback not being in rhythm with the scheme is not an excuse for the terrible decision-making which led to four game-murdering interceptions against the Redskins.  I simply don’t accept this nonsense that Cutler needs to haphazardly throw the ball to a particular space because Martz’ play-of-the-moment calls for it.  Throw the football away.  Throw the football to a back in the flat.  Use your legs and take off.  I understand the system is difficult to comprehend, I do.  But no more throwing the ball to a spot on the field because, hey, a guy is scheduled to be there.  If a friend of mine is scheduled to land at JFK at 1:45 pm, and I’m picking him up, I don’t just show up at the terminal at 1:45 pm.  I check the flight status because I know sometimes, and often times, things change.  I just hope the Bears, at some point this season, will do the same.

There are some Chicago Bears fans that will start rooting for our opponents on Sundays because they are desperate to see turnover at the general manager and head coach positions.  In recent years I have castigated such behavior as at-best shameful and at-worst un-American.  Fans believe their championship answers rest in the roster decisions of Bill Parcells – who has never won a Super Bowl as a GM – and the coaching prowess of Bill Cowher –  whose 2-4 record in AFC Championship Games isn’t exactly making him a first ballot Hall of Famer.

I don’t root for the Bears to lose.  Ever.  I don’t care if a Week 17 win is the difference between the top pick in the draft and the eighth pick, I don’t do it.  I live by the mantra that we’re only granted, at least for the next year, sixteen opportunities to watch our beloved ball club play.  And I want the Bears to win every one of them.

That being said, I decided to spend some time proving to myself that the Bears have no chance to reach the postseason this year.  As a desperate act, a defense mechanism, an attempt to spare myself the Lovie letdowns of the next two months.  Turns out it is much, much, much harder than I thought it would be.

Here are the schedules:
Bears.  @ Bills, Vikings, @ Dolphins, Eagles, @ Lions, Patriots, @ Vikings, Jets, @ Packers.
Vikings. @ Patriots, Cardinals, @ Bears, Packers, @ Redskins, Bills, Giants, Bears, @ Eagles, @ Lions
Packers. @ Jets, Cowboys, @ Vikings, @ Falcons, 49ers, @ Lions, @ Patriots, Giants, Bears
The first thing I thought looking at those schedules was, “Wow.  The Packers and Vikings are both going to lose this week.”  If the Vikes and Pack do lose (and they are six-point underdogs), the Bears will arrive in Toronto alone in first place.  They will have lost two straight games at home, as favorites, and play their next game as lone division leaders.  Don’t say much for the North, does it?  If they win that game, they will end the first half of their schedule at 5-3. 

Objectively speaking, I think the Bears don’t have a single guaranteed win over their final eight but they have several winnable games.  I think the Vikings should not have much trouble with the Cardinals and Bills at home.  I think the Packers should handle the 49ers easily at home as well. (I’m not quite ready to call their Cowboys game a guarantee.)

The conclusion?  These schedules make it basically impossible for any of these teams to pull away.  And contrary to my opinions a few weeks ago, it makes a 9-7 division champion a possibility.  The NFC North will be decided by two Bears/Vikings games and most likely on the last afternoon of the season at Lambeau Field.

And wouldn’t it be fitting for Lovie Smith, the man who proclaimed beating Green Bay as his primary goal the day he was hired, to have to defeat the Packers in order to have a shot to keep his job this postseason?   

The Bears are not very good.  I thought they were and then they weren’t.  If it’s not the offensive line, it’s fumbling in the red zone.  If it’s not fumbling in the red zone, it’s throwing mindless interceptions.  If it’s not throwing mindless interceptions, it’s the head coach having no idea how to utilize the challenge flag.  The Bears have a good enough defense and special teams to compete with just about any team in the NFL.  But to call their offense bad would mistakenly assume that what the Bears do when they possess the football is “offense”.  It’s not.  It’s a series of unrelated plays that only occasionally, and often by pure chance, move the ball forward down the field.  (Never on third down, as Thom Brennaman likes to remind us.)

The biggest problem facing the Bears organization?  The Packers and Vikings aren’t very good either.  Neither are the teams in the NFC East, South or West.  If the Bears manage a split with the Minnesota Vikings – who’ll most likely start Tarvaris Jackson by Thanksgiving – there is no reason to believe any of the teams in this division will be able to run and hide.  The division crown may be on the line at Lambeau Field on the final night of the regular season.

And if that is the case, and the Bears have an opportunity to win the division that night, victory should not guarantee Lovie Smith’s return in 2011.  Michael McCaskey, always speaking at the least appropriate time, has declared that Lovie does not need to win the Super Bowl to return next season.  Starting right now, Lovie Smith should only be considered for a return if he does the following things.  (1) Oversees an improvement in the overall offensive play throughout the year.  (2) Wins the NFC North and the home playoff game that follows.  Even that should not guarantee him anything more than consideration.

And I’ll add one more thing.  In two weeks, in Toronto, the Bears will play the winless Buffalo Bills.  The Bills are bad but they moved up-and-down the field on one of the best defenses in the league in Baltimore yesterday.  If the Bears hand this team their first win of the season, Lovie Smith should be fired before he walks through American customs after the return flight.  And Dave Toub – not Rod Marinelli or Mike Martz – should assume the head coaching throne.

I don’t mind when a quarterback throws interceptions, especially when those interceptions are the result of trying to make a great play.  But that’s not what took place yesterday at Soldier Field.  What happened on the lake yesterday was a quarterback – with careless disregard for his teammates, coaches and fans – throwing away a football game and quite possibly a season. 

Lovie not challenging the game-changing touchdown was bad enough.  The offensive line’s first half was bad enough.  Donovan McNabb failing to get his pick six off on time was bad enough.  Jay Cutler was worse.  Worse than his head coach and offensive coordinator.  Worse than his offensive line.  He missed wide open backs in the flat.  He missed a wide open Devin Hester on a crossing route that could have gone for days.  His interceptions – all four to Mr. Hall – each revealed the singular flaw in Cutler’s regressing game.  What is that flaw?  Jay Cutler is not a smart quarterback.  He’s an arrogant thrower with no game sense.  On each of the interceptions, the pass had no business being thrown.  How does one teach a player to be intelligent?

As I sat in the bar watching the Vikings and Packers, a buddy turned to me and said, “I love watching this moron [Brett Favre] play quarterback but I am so happy he is not the quarterback of my team.”

Unfortunately, I think he is the quarterback of mine.