All the homework is done and the Bears are just left waiting to see who is there for them to pick. By now, they have a list of players they think might be available and have them ranked on their board, but nobody has access to that list outside of John Fox and Ryan Pace. So, here’s my best guess.

First, a few things I considered:

• The best player available thing is just GM talk. They look at positions of need and this list will reflect that.

• I won’t pretend to be a scout, so my “scouting reports” are based heavily on things actual scouts (current and former) have said. I do a ton of research on the draft prospects and put more weight on what those who do the job for a living say than the guy with 1,563 Twitter followers.

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This weekend is the final opportunity for you to register for the DBB / Art of Men NFL Draft Picks Contest. There are ONLY two ways to register:

• Follow Art of Men (@ArtofMen) on Twitter and send a message reading “Draft Contest”.
• Go to Art of Men’s contact page – http://artofmen.org/contact/ – and fill out the form with the message being “Draft Contest”.

The contest will be simple. Everyone registered will submit their guess for the Bears first round pick. Those who get that player right will move on to round two…etc. The last contestant standing will receive two tickets to a Bears game this season. (Tiebreakers will be announced next week.)

If nobody gets the first round pick right, the tickets go to charity. Because, quite frankly, you don’t deserve them.

Prospect Profile: Joey Bosa, Edge, Ohio State

Pros: Considered the best edge prospect in the draft. Very strong at the point of attack, with great technique. Should be able to be an impact player Day One and considered a top-five talent.

Cons: Not the kind of guy who’s going to lead the league in sacks every year. He’s a good athlete, but not great. Certainly isn’t JJ Watt or even a smaller version of JJ Watt. Doesn’t add speed to the Bears defense.

Summary: No use taking a lot of time to over-think this one. Bosa should go very high and likely will. He may not get 15 sacks a year, but he should regulary eight eight-to-10 while setting the edge against the run.

Jeff’s Thought: I think the Bears (and Bears fans) would be thrilled if the team has an opportunity to take Bosa. The JJ Watt comparisons are being made for one reason: he’s white. Does every white guy have to get compared to JJ Watt?

Prospect Profile: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

Pros: Considered a complete back. He can catch passes, block and make people miss. Very good size and speed ratio. Doesn’t look like he’s 225 pounds, but he was great in short-yardage.

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Prospect Profile: Shaq Lawson, Edge, Clemson

Pros: Very athletic and never takes a play off. Athleticism was a question for some before the combine but Lawson had arguably the best performance at his position. Was very productive with 12.5 sacks and 24.5 tackles for loss last season. Had 21 tackles for loss and seven sacks his first two seasons as a part-time player at Clemson.

Cons: Suffered a knee injury late last year and was flagged at the combine for a shoulder issue. Hard to say how that will turn out. His arms are on the short side, measuring 32.75 inches.

Summary: I love Lawson as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s going to have a ton of sack production in the NFL. I can see him being a Tamba Hali clone. He’ll have around eight sacks per season and be very productive against the run. Probably best suited to be a teams second-best pass-rusher. Is that worth the 11th pick?

Jeff’s Thought: 8 sacks per season? If he’s guaranteeing that you sprint to submit the card at 11.

Prospect Profiles: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

Pros: Great size, athleticism and production at Memphis. Did not turn the ball over, something that many believe will translate to the NFL. Has the potential to be a real franchise quarterback.

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Prospect Profile: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame

Pros: Considered by many to be a franchise left tackle because of his size and athleticism. Has exceptionally long arms and held up very well in pass protection. Would improve the Bears pass-blocking from Day One and give them someone who can hold up against Clay Matthews, Ziggy Ansah and Everson Griffen.

Cons: Not really considered a mauler in the run game, which could be a big problem for the Bears. Some question if he really loves football. Looked really stiff and slow at the combine, but said it was because of a calf injury.

Summary: If NFL teams grade Stanley as a franchise left tackle, he won’t make it to the 11th pick. It’s going to come down the psychological evaluations, something nobody really has access to. Certainly has the talent to be a great left tackle. For the Bears, it’s worth questioning if they should invest such a high pick in the position when they have a quarterback who excels after the play breaks down.

Jeff’s Thought: I don’t know how good Charles Leno can be at left tackle but I think the Bears would be making a terrible mistake not finding out. Drafting Stanley would relegate Leno to the bench immediately.

Prospect Profile: A’Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama

Pros: Called “Body Beautiful” because he looks the part. Incredibly strong despite being just 20 years old last year. Was able to consistently push blockers into the backfield and rarely, if ever, lost ground. Will immediately improve and anchor any team’s run defense. Much better prospect than Danny Shelton was.

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The Bears website catalogued the players being mocked to the team by analysts across the country. Andrew Dannehy weighs in on each. This is the first of four volumes.

Prospect Profile: Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State

Pros: Conklin is big (6’6″, 305) and nasty with exceptionally long arms (35 inches). He was al All-American playing against tough competition at Michigan State. Might not be a better pass-blocker than Charles Leno right away, but he has athletic upside and would immediately be a mauler in the run game.

Cons: His footwork makes him looks slow out of his stance at times. He’ll probably struggle against speed-rushers, which could be a major problem in a division with Clay Matthews. If he struggled at left tackle, the Bears really don’t have anywhere else to put him.

Summary: Conklin is a good prospect and one of my favorites tackle prospects in this draft. If the Bears are confident he can improve his footwork and play left tackle right away, he could very well be the pick. Personally, I’m not convinced he’s going to be an upgrade over Leno, in year one, anyway.

Jeff’s Thought: Aren’t the days of the tough, white Big Ten tackle over? When I watch Conklin I can’t imagine any scenario where he is able to block Von Miller.

Prospect Profile: Leonard Floyd, Edge, Georgia

Pros: At six-foot-six, Floyd showed exceptional agility and fluid hips, even running down the field with wide receivers at times last season. He can be a chess piece as he can drop in coverage and rush from a variety of positions on defense.

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Some thoughts:

• Realistically, the start of the season is not difficult. Neither Houston nor Philadelphia strike me as being title contenders this season. The Bears are a young team on the rise and they need a few good things to happen to them early in the year so they can start to believe. This schedule makes that possible.
• Four primetime games before the bye shows the NFL believes the NFL thinks the Bears might be pretty good.
• Perfect bye week. Dead center of the season.
•  Halloween night game…spooky.

Overall, nothing really stands out. It’s a fair, balanced schedule. And it sets up well for the Bears.

If you read this space regularly, you know I don’t care about measurables. It’s not that I don’t think they are important. They clearly are a useful tool in the scouting process. I simply don’t care about them in the same way I don’t care about the Combine (which is actual pornography to measurables people), the salary cap (dead money! dead money!) and weekly power rankings.

Brandon Doughty isn’t going to be Peyton Manning. He isn’t going to be a ten-year NFL starter at quarterback. But when I watched him on the field this season I kept having the same thought over and over again, “This kid can play a little bit.”

I don’t think there is a star quarterback in this draft and I think a few years time will prove that teams reaching for Wentz, Goff, Lynch or Cook will find themselves in Ponder/Locker territory. Doughty needs a few years of serious NFL coaching and the Bears, with an established veteran QB and locked-in coaching staff, might be the perfect destination.

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You know Noah Spence’s story. He was a five star recruit, kicked out of the Big 10 because of two failed drug tests for ecstasy. He went on to Eastern Kentucky, had a productive year and made people drool as he ran around bad tackle prospects at the Senior Bowl. That was right around the time of the Super Bowl and everyone suddenly wanted Spence to be Von Miller. Here’s the thing: He isn’t Von Miller and isn’t close as a prospect.

I’ll get to the red flags later.

Spence has very real physical flaws that make me think he’d struggle even if he did stay clean. The best pass-rushers in the league are either long or athletic. Spence isn’t either. It isn’t just about his 40-yard dash time. He didn’t show particularly good agility or explosiveness.

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Four Thoughts

• Teams have to consider the idea that Nkemdiche is batshit crazy. He’s smoking synthetic marijuana and jumping/falling out windows in the middle of his final season in college. He admitted at the Combine he was occasionally lazy on plays. He doesn’t have red flags. He is a red flag.
• He’s a physical freak. From Yahoo:

At 6-foot-3 and 294 pounds, his 40-yard dash (4.87 seconds), bench reps (28 at 225 pounds), vertical (35 inches) and broad jump (9 feet, 8 inches) were all in or near the top percentile for defensive tackles.

• Nkemdiche is one of the only players in this draft who passed my “jumped off the screen” test during the college football season. These are players that make me pause the game I’m watching and ask, “Who the hell is that?” (My three favorite examples being Ndamukong Suh, Justin Blackmon and Aaron Donald.) At Alabama, Ole Miss’ most difficult opponent of the year, Nkemdiche was the best player on the field and led the Rebels to victory. He had 2.5 tackles for loss, including a half sack. He was unblockable.
• If he falls out of the first round the Bears should be clawing at the walls of their war room throughout Thursday night. Risking a second-round pick on this kid is no risk at all because the reward could be an NFL star.