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Young starting quarterbacks: the NFL’s biggest bargain

| March 19th, 2013

Rookie bargains

When the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the NFL and players’ union was put into place prior to the 2011 season, one of the big changes from the old CBA was the rookie wage scale. Gone were the days when players drafted in the top five became the highest-paid player at their position in NFL history before playing a single down.

Two years later, we are seeing clear effects of that, especially for teams with young quarterbacks. Ten teams started quarterbacks in 2012 that have been drafted under the new CBA: Miami (Ryan Tannehill), Cleveland (Brandon Weeden), Indianapolis (Andrew Luck), Washington (Robert Griffin III), San Francisco (Colin Kaepernick), Cincinnati (Andy Dalton), Carolina (Cam Newton), Tennessee (Jake Locker), Jacksonville (Blaine Gabbert), and Seattle (Russell Wilson). Of those ten, three were drafted in the top two picks of their draft (Luck, Griffin, and Newton), meaning that they would have been amongst the highest-paid quarterbacks last year under the old CBA.

Instead they are paid less than $5 million per year, more than $10 million less than what they would have gotten in previous years. Factor in the other seven quarterbacks, who were drafted later and are even cheaper, and it’s no surprise eight of those ten teams have significant money to spend in free agency this year to improve their rosters. The two exceptions are Washington, who has a reduced salary cap due to NFL-imposed penalties, and Carolina, who is still saddled with a number of other terrible contracts from their incompetent former general manager.

Trickle-down economics

Consequently, teams who can get competent play from their young, inexpensive quarterbacks have more money to build a better team around them, which helps explain how five of these teams made the playoffs in 2012. Three of the other five—Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Tennessee—dealt with poor quarterback play, while a fourth, Miami, was mediocre. The only young quarterback who played well and didn’t lead his team to the playoffs was Cam Newton, who must contend with a roster full of overpaid and underproducing players.

Teams with young quarterbacks who have played decently, such as Miami, Seattle, Indianapolis, and San Francisco, have all utilized that extra cap space to fill holes and improve their team.

The upshot of all this is that teams will have to pay their quarterbacks eventually and need to plan accordingly. Highly drafted players typically receive five-year deals that can be renegotiated after four years, while those drafted in the second or third rounds (like Kaepernick, Dalton, and Wilson) can sign extensions after three years.

The smart front offices are taking advantage of this brief window to acquire players with contracts that expire by the time they will need to pay their quarterback. San Francisco recently traded for wide receiver Anquan Boldin; they were willing and able to absorb his $6 million salary because his contract expires after 2013, which, not coincidentally, will be when Colin Kaepernick is due for a hefty pay raise. The Seattle Seahawks signed Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, two solid defensive ends who will help bolster their pass rush, to deals that will expire by 2014, when Russell Wilson gets his money. Consequently, these two teams, who were arguably the two best teams in the NFC last year (sorry, Atlanta fans), have been able to greatly improve themselves this offseason and position themselves as Super Bowl favorites without damaging their longterm outlook.

The days of top draft picks being more trouble than they’re worth are long gone, and this is a good thing for the NFL. Teams that swing—and hit—on young quarterbacks are now actually at a competitive advantage over teams with highly paid veterans, which goes a long way towards helping maintain the parity that has helped build the NFL’s popularity into what it is today.

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A Quick Paragraph on Each NFC North Team

| March 18th, 2013

Green Bay Packers

Tom Crabtree is gone. Greg Jennings in gone. The Packers did not make a significant move to upgrade the running back position. But forgive me if I’m not sounding the “fade from glory” alarm for the club up in Green Bay just yet. The modern Pack regime does not make flashy moves in March. They make flashy plays on the field from September to December. They’ll restock their offensive artillery in late April and be a force to reckon with in the 2013 season.

Minnesota Vikings

I’ll say it: I think the Vikings are a 6-win team in 2013. They’re still starting Christian Ponder at QB and now are backing him up with the worse-than-Ponder Matt Cassel. Percy Harvin covered up Ponder’s flaws with his ability to convert the bubble screen into an 80-yard touchdown on a regular basis. Greg Jennings does not replace Harvin. He is a prototypical wide receiver and he’s never played with such mediocrity at the quarterback position. The only way Minnesota finds themselves in the postseason is if Adrian Peterson delivers ANOTHER all-world season.

Detroit Lions

Is their defense better? No? Then why would I care if they signed Reggie Bush. Points and yardage were not Detroit’s issue in 2012. They can’t stop anybody.

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Where Else Can Bears Turn in Free Agency?

| March 14th, 2013

Phil Emery acquired his starting left tackle and his starting tight end on the first day of free agency. The two most significant vulnerabilities of the 2012 Chicago Bears have been, at least in the eyes of the GM, have been addressed. Now that the spending spree is over and the organization is tight to the salary cap, where else might Emery turn?

  • Stay home. Signing Nick Roach, Lance Louis and Brian Urlacher would give Emery complete freedom as he approaches the end of April. Roach and Urlacher would be penciled in as the starting linebackers, leaving the Bears only to seek depth (a Geno Hayes type) for the position. Louis would be  the starting right guard, leaving the Bears to perhaps draft his counterpart on the left side. Without these three players the Bears will INEVITABLY be seeking 2013 starters on Thursday night, April 25th. This is a position good teams usually avoid.
  • Karlos Dansby. Dansby can still be a viable middle linebacker in the right system, even at the age of 31. Would he provide the sideline-to-sideline ability of a prime Urlacher? No. But he could be an affordable tackling machine in the middle of the defense at the right price.
  • Rey Maualuga. Is Maualuga a great player? No. He’s not. But is he a serviceable third starter next to Briggs and either Urlacher/Roach? Sure. The Giants are rumored to be interested so if the Bears are going to pursue, they’d need to pursue quickly.
  • Kevin Boothe & Brandon Moore – the guards of New York. While Emery told Mike Wright of ESPN Chicago that the Bears can’t afford a starting guard in free agency, he does not know what the market will be for these two significant potential upgrades to the Bears offensive line. Boothe is a more exciting option since he could start at center for the Bears and allow Roberto Garza to slide back to his natural guard position.

There are options out there but they require money. If Phil Emery and Cliff Stein can find some the Bears may not be done upgrading this roster for 2013.

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Emery Contiues to Surprise in March

| March 12th, 2013

Phil Emery landed the surprise of the 2012 off-season with his acquisition of Brandon Marshall from the Miami Dolphins for a pair of third-round picks. Marshall rewarded Emery by delivering one of the most impressive offensive seasons in the history of the Chicago Bears and in my opinion allowing Emery the grace period which led to the firing of Lovie Smith in the aftermath of the ten-win 2012 campaign.

The first day of Free Agency 2013 was nearly as surprising.

Within minutes of the official signing period opening, word leaked out of Chicago/New York that former Cowboys and Giants tight end Martellus Bennett had reached an agreement (in principal, of course) to join the Chicago Bears. Bennett, much like Marshall did a year earlier at wide receiver, immediately validated the tight end position. If he repeats his 55-626-5 from a year ago over the four-year duration of his contract, Kellen Davis will become no more than a trivia answer to questions asked by negativity-prone intoxication monkeys in Rossi’s on North State.

Emery was not done.

As the clock moved from five to six in the middle of this country, Emery and the Bears inked a long-term deal with former Saints tackle, Drew Brees blindside protector and certifiably pornographic last name holder Jermon Bushrod. The deal is worth a bit more than $17 million guaranteed.

Around these parts much has been made about the Pro Football Focus grading of Bushrod as equivalent to J’Marcus Webb in 2012. A few points on this:

  • Emery acknowledged PFF in his post-season press conference. These were not numbers unknown to the Bears GM. These were numbers unimportant.
  • Aaron Kromer, the Bears current “offensive coordinator”, was Bushrod’s position coach in New Orleans. If Bushrod is a marginal player and marginal improvement, Kromer must simply not care or decided to stay quiet.
  • Bushrod is not only an improvement at left tackle for the Bears. He also drastically improves the right tackle position by allowing Gabe Carimi and J’Marcus Webb to battle for the spot in camp. Best case for Bears? Carimi beats Webb and becomes a swing tackle with a year plus experience on both sides of the line.

In one day the Bears upgraded their two most vulnerable positions: left tackle and tight end. Did they overpay? Perhaps. But during Cliff Stein’s tenure in Chicago the Bears have rarely, very rarely, faced anything approaching cap trouble. They’ll be just fine.

Now the club has the flexibility heading into the NFL draft. Now they can use their first round selection on a middle linebacker or guard or wide receiver or whomever they believe to be the best player available. Emery has used free agency to address the needs. Now he can use the draft to address the desires.

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Bears Find TE, Add Martellus Bennett

| March 12th, 2013

While many were clamoring for Jared Cook over the last few months (I was not) Giants TE Martellus Bennett was quickly gaining traction amongst the folks at Halas Hall. That traction has led to his reportedly agreeing in principal to become the new tight end of the Chicago Bears.

So join in bidding a fond farewell to Kellen Davis’ involvement in the offensive game plan.

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On Free Agency and the Chicago Bears

| March 11th, 2013

March 12, tomorrow, unlike say franchise tag application day, is a day of actual importance on the NFL calendar. Franchises can be changed forever, both positively (Reggie White, Green Bay Packers) and negatively (Albert Haynesworth, Washington Redskins). The best teams in the NFL don’t build their organizational foundation by cutting big checks to veterans. But the smart ones know how to complete their personnel puzzle and add the type of depth necessary in the injury-laden modern NFL.

The finest modern (post-Ditka) Chicago Bears teams were able to compete in January due to decisions made in March.

Where would Dick Jauron’s 2001 Bears and their up-and-coming middle linebacker have been without the forces of nature called Keith Traylor and Ted Washington – both acquired as unrestricted free agents in the lead-up to the 2001 campaign.

Jerry Angelo has received his “fair” share of abuse in Chicago but he was able to rebuild the team’s offensive line (ironically) in the mid 2000s by acquiring John Tait (2004), Ruben Brown (2004) and Fred Miller (2005). When Lovie Smith was hired and wanted to return the Bears to an off-the-bus run attack Angelo signed Thomas Jones at the drop of the free agency period. (It my memory that signing happened at 12:01 AM but I doubt that’s accurate.) Free agency dramatically helped send that team to the Super Bowl in 2006.

There’s a reason prospective FA acquisitions are referred to as “targets”. The more specific and narrow the scope the greater possibility there is for a team to make the right maneuver. Attempts at grand, sweeping change, at a roster overhaul are almost economically impossible and often end in unrealistic expectations and unsustainable success. (See: Team, Dream) Football is not a sport where championships are won by the best collection of talent. Or perhaps more accurately, since the beginning of free agency football is not a sport where championships are won by the best collection of talent.

Where do the Bears and Phil Emery find themselves on the day before the day?

  1. They do not have a top forty offensive lineman on their roster. Their best talent (Lance Louis) is coming off a significant injury and while I expect his services to be retained I also expect the Bears to bring in someone with veteran status if only to calm the angry mob of fans who don’t want to see another bullshit camp battle J’Marcus Webb can’t lose.
  2. The Bears don’t have a pass-catching tight end to own the middle of the field. What nobody seems to know – because nobody inside Halas Hall leaks anything ever these days – is if this sort of player is in Marc Trestman’s plans. We assume the answer is yes because all of the league’s top offenses utilize the TE  but is it any more than an unsubstantiated assumption? If Trestman is planning to throw only 30 passes to the position this year it is something the Bears can address in the middle of the draft.
  3. People point to the New England Patriots as the model NFL franchise and why not? They win their division every year and seem to win at least one playoff game each time they get in. But one needs only to look at that team’s complete lack of depth at almost every position on defense to understand a basic truth: the Patriots win because they have a top-5 all time coach and a top-5 all time quarterback. Depth, as we’ve come to know it, does not exist in the hard cap NFL without maintained success in each draft round season after season. Adding depth vets in free agency is about short-term security. Signing players like Geno Hayes, Kelvin Hayden and later Jonathan Scott might not have disrupted the balance of power in the NFC but the moves enabled the Bears to survive injuries and win 10 games.

Phil Emery’s offseason (and year, for that matter) will not be defined by what he does over these next few weeks. His year will be defined by the man he has put in charge of the football team. But to believe the Bears are in some kind of rebuilding mode is to lack an understanding of the dynamic nature of their current roster.

Imagine the 2012 Bears with adequate pass protection? Imagine replaying the season and replacing every Kellen Davis drop with a Kellen Davis catch? What you’re imagining is a division champion. What you’re imagining is a title contender. What you’re imagining of 2012 is what the Bears could be in 2013.

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DaBearsBlog is On Vacation!

| March 6th, 2013

I don’t take a lot of time off over the course of the year from this site but the next week will be such a time. I am taking my drinking & eating talents to the great American city of New Orleans until Monday morning.

imo

DBB will return on March 11th to set the stage for the start of the free agency period on March 12th. Will the Bears make a splash for a starting tight end or offensive lineman? Will Phil Emery repeat his maneuvers of 2012 and add quality depth on the defensive side of the ball? Will all things remain quiet at Halas Hall?

See ya Monday.

PS. Should anything of note happen, I urge you to follow @DaBearsBlog on Twitter. That’s the only place I’ll be for the next four or five days barring huge breaking news.

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The Jake Dilemma: Should Bears Consider LT Long

| March 4th, 2013

Jake Long is reportedly asking for $11 million a season as he enters the free agency pool in a few weeks. Nobody is going to pay Jake Long $11 million a season. Based on most of the reliable and reputable grading systems across the NFL, Long is on the decline  and I’d be surprised if he draws anywhere near double-digits from an offensive line hungry team. Long was a great player for the Miami Dolphins and at times the most dominant left tackle in the sport. But injuries and time have taken their toll on him, leading to a 2012 season where the label of “mediocre” might actually be too generous.

Is Jake Long still a viable left tackle? Yes. Pete Prisco, Peter King and Omar Kelly have each written on the subject of Long’s demise being overstated.

Is Long capable of overcoming the injuries which have plagued him the last few seasons and returning to his previous form? Doubtful. Players don’t fall from greatness and return to it in the NFL. The league gets too young too fast and the human body can only take so many snaps.

Is Long worth the financial risk for the Chicago Bears? Maybe.

At his worst in 2012, Long graded out by Pro Football Focus as the 21st best pass protector in the NFL. This was devastating news for Long but it essentially means only 20 tackles in football protected their quarterback more effectively. J’Marcus Webb was 53rd. Gabe Carimi was 63rd. Think about that. 63rd? (For you non-math wizards, there are only 32 teams in the NFL and subsequently 64 starting tackles.) If one believes 2012 Long is a precursor of 2013 Long, the Bears would still be improving their edge protection by a significant amount.

The downside of signing Long is the 2012 version. The upside is he regains his health and provides a veteran anchor to the Bears offensive line for a few years the way Fred Miller did in the mid 2000s.  But Miller was never Long, never an elite NFL player and never capable of dominating a pass rusher the way Long is.

There are questions arising from the Long option.

  1. Can the Bears afford him? My belief is now and will continue to be that with Cliff Stein managing your salary cap a team can afford any player they’d like to sign. If the Bears want Long, Long will be a Bear.
  2. Would the signing preclude Phil Emery from taking an OT with the 20th pick? No. The Bears could sign Long and draft a Lane Johnson or DJ Fluker and enter the summer with the J’Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi battling for backup spots. (I continue to say the oft-maligned Webb is an incredible asset as a flex tackle with his experience on both edges.)
  3. Are Long’s health risks too risky? Maybe in baseball but not the NFL. Unless the Bears were to guarantee Long some absurd amount of money his contract would essentially be structured as a series of one year deals. (That’s most NFL contracts.)
  4. Would a new home motivate Long? I think the answer is absolutely yes. I spent some of this weekend watching Dolphins tape and – while he hasn’t stated it publicly – I believe Long was struggling with injuries for a majority of the season and I agree with Prisco/King/Kelly in their assessment of his performance. I don’t think he was bad in 2012 and I think he can be good in 2013.

If I were running the Chicago Bears, I’d bring Long in at the right price but no one knows for sure how Phil Emery intends to approach the free agency period. If he decided to roll the dice on Jake Long, he may reap the benefits for the next three seasons.

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How Would You Rebuild the Bears Offensive Line?

| March 1st, 2013

Let’s consider this post something of a poll question. I will keep it short and sweet. I want to know how you, readers, commenters, Bears fans would rebuild the club’s offensive line heading into the 2013 campaign. You must be logical and take into consideration salary cap restrictions and draft place. You can’t have everything.

I will be writing a piece on the subject for Monday morning and I will use some of the best answers below in the body of that column. So bring your A-games.

(Hint: My column may/may not involve the wing champion above.)

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Tackling the NFL's "Gay Problem"

| February 26th, 2013

Two things should be stated at the outset of this column.

Item #1. I have no evidence nor have I read any evidence that former Notre Dame linebacker and future NFL millionaire Manti Te’o is homosexual. For the purposes of this piece that is actually unimportant. When Katie Couric asks you if you’re gay on national television in front of a zillion people, the topic has been raised.

Item #2. I make my literary living writing for the theatre and, for half that time, the musical theatre. Homosexuals are as normal to my daily existence as iced coffee. I have no issue with their sexual behavior. I just hate it when they’re fucking late to rehearsal. (Side note: This has far more to do with them being actors than it does with their sexuality.)

Many of the NFL scouts and GMs interviewing Manti Te’o at this week’s Combine have asked about his sexuality. They are not asking because of personal bias – Bill Belichick went to Wesleyan for Christ’s sake. They are asking but they’re keenly aware of an overwhelming bias existing in their locker rooms.

The never dull lightning rod of a columnist called Jason Whitlock believes the NFL has a gay dilemma and believes Roger Goodell is tasked with solving it. Whitlock poignantly writes:

Let’s be honest. I think it’s reasonable to assume that 15 percent of NFL players are gay and/or bisexual. Generally speaking, they’re forced to conceal their sexuality out of fear of being ostracized and potentially released from the team.

They need to be set free, released from the grip of the most hostile work environment in America. Is there a more homophobic work setting than a football locker room? I can’t think of one.

I grew up in a football locker room. We wore our homophobia like a badge of honor. No one thought twice about using the F-word that rhymes with rag. Being gay was viewed as a disease that stripped you of all masculinity and most of your integrity.

This is expertly written but missing one key component.

Whitlock’s contention is that Goodell – through partnerships and penalties can help open the door for a homosexual to come freely out of the closet and into the locker room. This has not been achieved in any American sport but Whitlock believes it can happen in the NFL – America’s most masculine and violent of sports – with the help of the folks on Park Avenue.

But one needs to look no further than the world’s football to understand how naive an opinion that is. For the past decade FIFA, UEFA and a host of soccer federations have launched an aerial assault against racism both on and off the pitch. What has that organizational attack reaped? Higher tensions, monkey chants and banana peels thrown onto the pitches across Eastern Europe (literally) and everything surrounding the Ferdinands and Mario Balotelli.

Anti-gay sentiment will not exit NFL locker rooms because Roger Goodell does a commercial with GLAAD or invites Harvey Fierstein to announce the first pick of April’s draft. It will not exit NFL locker rooms because Goodell takes the Chicago Bears to see a Mario Cantone show. It will not exit the NFL locker room because like it or not the institution of the NFL is not IN their own team locker rooms.

After all, is the government in the living rooms of all those who hold anti-gay stances? Will any amount of gay marriage legalization influence the millions of Americans receiving their anti-gay instruction from velvet-draped megachurch stages across the map?

Aye, there’s the lighthouse.

We somehow forget how religious professional athletes are. We forget that an overwhelming majority of NFL players are African-Americans and rural whites – two groups that wear their love of the lord around their necks. We forget that these individuals do not treat homosexuals with the same rancor white baseball treated Jackie Robinson and those who followed. They don’t just historically hate gays. They believe “gay” is evil. They believe “gay” is an affront to their god. And one needs only to look at the Twitter feeds of the NFL’s more vocal to know where they place god’s opinion on their list of priorities.

So how can the NFL become a safe place for a homosexual to exist? The players must make it so. But that will not come to pass until more of the NFL is as outspoken as Chris Kluwe and Brendon Ayanbadejo have been. That day will not come until religious institutions around this country stop hand-feeding an atmosphere of hate/rejection and begin embracing what I believed to be their primary means for existence: love and acceptance.

Some of you will read this column and believe I am advocating a change in the stance on homosexuality by various religions. I am not. I could care less what is taught in churches because I only ever set foot in them to watch two fools get married or mourn the loss of a life. I give no more authority to the Catholic Church than I give the local Elks Club and the church doesn’t have the courtesy to sell me cheap beer. What I do acknowledge is the influence of organized religion.

The “problem” – if you choose to believe there is a problem with bigotry towards a large group of human beings – is Sunday. Not the Sunday you’re thinking of. Instead of Jason Whitlock foolishly believing the power to change an individual’s deeply held belief rests with a sport’s commissioner, he might turn his attention to where these beliefs originate: the pulpit.