You won’t find many Bears writers or bloggers around who’ve been as critical of Brian Urlacher. While celebrating his remarkable, sideline-to-sideline athletic ability and impeccable huddle command I have also questioned his ability to shed blocks since Ted Washington and Ketih Traylor were exiled by a defensive regime change and wondered publicly if Urlacher possessed the intimidation factor that has defined the great middle linebackers in Chicago and across the NFL. (I also routinely questioned Urlacher’s Hall of Fame credentials for years – a position on which I’ve since reluctantly reversed course.)

This off-season Phil Emery and the Bears hierarchy need Brian Urlacher as much as he needs them. Yes, the captain is suffering from chronic knee issues that are more than likely never going to improve. And yes, even a healthy 54 might only be a shadow of the player who dominated the league in 2005-2006. But Urlacher understands his physical liabilities will prohibit him from breaking the bank on the final contract of his professional career and thus the risks – should one choose to use that word – to the Bears organization will be minimal.

The rewards? Potentially great.

The Bears offense – designed by Marc Trestman and blocked byAaron Kromer – will be reworked and re-imagined. The system  and scheme will change. The terminology will change. The players will change. Nothing that took place on the field in 2012, other than the success of Cutler-to-Marshall, will play any role in what takes place on the field in 2013.

The Bears defense, barring surprises over the next few months, may not have a single new starter. Think about it for a moment. The secondary – Tillman, Jennings, Wright & Conte – will be there. The defensive ends will be Peppers and a combination of Wootton, McClellin and maybe a new face or two should Idonije head elsewhere. Henry Melton will be back, either on the franchise tag or with far, far, far heavier pockets. Might Emery bring in a new starter in free agency? Doubtful. Might a draft pick break into the starting lineup? It’s possible. But odds are we know the names of the eleven men who’ll take the field on defense the first Sunday after Labor Day. The difference. The man who has directed that defense since 2004, Lovie Smith, is gone. Mel Tucker has arrived.

And Mel Tucker needs Brian Urlacher.

The new defensive coordinator needs a defensive signal-caller in the huddle who already has the respect of the ten men around him. He needs a player with Urlacher’s intelligence to help translate his own concepts into familiar language/terminology. And perhaps less discussed is the notion that Tucker will face far less scrutiny from the fans and media with Urlacher patrolling the middle of the field. Until #54 retires this will continue to be his defense.

But don’t believe it’s a one-sided relationship. While Tucker is keeping the Bears in a 4-3 alignment, he is not staunchly sticking with the Tampa-2 concepts. This means that Urlacher’s physical requirements each and every Sunday could be significantly less. (No longer might he be needed to cover the deep middle of the field on surefire passing downs.) The less pressure put on Urlacher’s knees in 2013, the more likely there will be a 2014 for the superstar. As strange as it is to admit there might be less physical demand on Urlacher in Chicago than many other destinations across the league.

A deal should and will get done in the coming weeks. It is the best thing for Brian Urlacher and the best thing for the Chicago Bears. It will not only make the sixty-one thousand plus of Soldier Field happy come September, it will make the fifty-three on the field more formidable.

Marc Trestman delivered this morning the type of press conference that will come to define the Phil Emery era in Chicago. It was bland. It revealed nothing. It utilized a bunch of a buzz words and corporate-speak phraseology befitting a man known for his football intellect.

Most importantly was Trestman’s answer when asked if Shea McClellin will remain a defensive end in 2013: uh…maybe?  (Side note: Phil Emery later said Shea will remain at defensive end.)

While many around Chicago would like to see Shea McClellin as heir apparent to the Urlacher throne I would prefer to see McClellin given an opportunity to thrive at 4-3 defensive end – a position he’s truly only played for one season. Middle linebacker is a hallowed role in the city of Chicago but the ability to rush the passer is the key to success in the modern NFL. Having a B+ edge rusher outweighs an A- middle man.

So…open debate. Where do you want to see Shea McClellin in 2013?

Talk, Talk, Talk

Player safety.

That seems to be the key buzzword floating around the NFL these days.  Rodger Goodell and the league office talk about it all the time.  Seriously.  They just don’t stop.  They fine players for it, make new rules in the pursuit of it, and make commercials about it.

The players, meanwhile, also seem to care about their own safety quite a bit.  They talk about it adnauseam, and many former NFL players are suing the NFL for a lack of safety protocol, ostensibly to make the game safer more than to line their own pockets.

This fan, for one, is utterly sick of it, and I know I can’t be alone.  Both sides talk back and forth, pointing fingers at each other, but neither push for any meaningful reform.  All they care about is winning the war of public opinion, and their blatant hypocrisy needs to stop.

When the NFL and players’ union were in a lockout in 2011, they debated many important issues for the future of the league, including how to fairly share revenue and prevent rookies from being vastly overpaid.  But for two parties that both care so much about player safety, they didn’t really make much progress on that front.  Sure, they reduced full-contact practices and offseason workouts and put some token money into medical research, but they missed the main issue.

Style over safety

Football players have safer helmets available to them, ones that are proven to reduce concussions.  A few players, such as DeSean Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, and Greg Jennings, have switched to these (with good results), but the vast majority eschew them because they don’t look cool enough.  So let me get this straight: players will sue the NFL because of concussions, but won’t change to helmets that can prevent these concussions because of the style? It is hypocrisy of the highest order, and it was repeated when players complained about being forced to wear thigh pads.

The NFL league office, meanwhile, is not blameless in this either.  Sure, they fine players for delivering dangerous hits, but they do nothing to force them to wear the safer equipment. I understand that needs to be bargained with the players’ union, but if the league really cared about player safety as much as they claim, that would have been a top priority in the 2011 lockout.  A league that can fine players for their socks or shoes, but not for wearing unsafe helmets, is not a league that truly cares about the safety of those players.

Furthermore, the NFL is really only using player safety as an excuse to tweak rules in favor of the offense.  When one quarterback gets his knee blown out by a player lunging from the ground, that becomes illegal.  Receivers and quarterbacks have greater protection now than they ever have, making the passing game much more prolific than at any point in NFL history, but defensive players do not get awarded this same protection.  Offensive players have far fewer restrictions on how to block than defenders do on how to hit, leading to leg injuries to defensive players who get chopped down on a regular basis.  The NFL’s new crackdown on player safety is inherently biased towards promoting big plays and lots of points, things which help drive ratings and make money for the league.

Calling Bull

Both the NFL and the players’ union claim to care about player safety, but I’m not buying it.  Both sides are extremely hypocritical and only really care about one thing—money.  There is nothing wrong with this, but lying to the public to garner sympathy is just wrong.  I’m calling bullshit right here and right now. Shut up and play. Take the copious quantities of money we throw at you and be done with it.

Don’t expect us to care about your health when you prove just how little you care about it yourselves.

Sometimes I don’t know what to post or share with you folks. But after finding myself spending the better part of the morning watching video highlights of Marc Trestman’s 2002 Oakland Raiders offense I figured why the hell not see what you think.

Two notes before you see these two videos. (1) Trestman and Gannon’s offense was entirely about timing. There was almost no delay in the quarterback’s mind about where to go with the football once he took the snap. The days of Jay sitting in a pocket and surveying seem to be over. (2) Crossing routes, crossing routes, crossing routes. So many crossing routes.

Amidst stories of teams telling their injured players to dust it off and get back out there, it is refreshing to see instances in which a team genuinely puts player safety before the importance of winning a game. Three such examples have happened in recent years within the NFC North, and they all make me respect the men making decisions for those teams immensely.

Nick Collins

Early in the 2011 season, Green Bay Packers safety Nick Collins suffered a severe neck injury. Green Bay kept him on the roster for the entire season before deciding it was not safe for him to play football anymore. Collins retired shortly thereafter. General manager Ted Thompson said that “we were not comfortable clearing him to play again. As with all of our players, Nick is a member of our family and we thought of him that way as we came to this conclusion.”

Collins had been one of the leaders of a defense that played well in the team’s Super Bowl run, and the Packers clearly missed his presence on the field. Faced with an opportunity to clear him, helping their defense but exposing him to further serious injury, the team chose to put his well-being first, something football fans should take notice of and applaud.

Jahvid Best

The Detroit Lions faced a similar situation with running back Jahvid Best, who suffered a severe concussion (not his first) in October of 2011. The Lions, who had started 5-0 with Best’s explosive playmaking, stumbled to a 5-7 finish over their remaining 12 games.

Heading into the 2012 season, Best had still not been cleared by doctors, and Detroit likely at least suspected that he never would be, yet they still kept him on the roster, paying him his salary and providing him with free, top-notch medical care.  After the season, it was announced that Best’s career was over. Once again, a team had a chance to try and get a valuable player back on the field at the risk of his long-term safety, but decided instead to listen to doctors and make player safety the main priority.

Johnny Knox

Just a few months later, Chicago Bears wide receiver Johnny Knox was bent over backwards and nearly paralyzed towards the end of the 2011 season.

Even though he could barely walk at the start of the next season, the team kept Knox on the roster, once again giving the player access to money (over $1 million) and top-notch medical care they were not obligated to provide. Despite Knox’s public insistence that he wanted to play again, Chicago cut him after the 2012 season, and he retired days later.

Setting the example

Three teams, three talented players in position of need, three franchises put their players’ health ahead of putting the best possible talent on the field. Their good example stands in stark contrast to the recent behavior of the Washington Redskins, who let a clearly hobbled Robert Griffin III play in the playoffs because he insisted he could do it. These teams trusted their medical professionals to make the call, even over the pleadings of their players, who were filled with passion for the game and a burning desire to win. For that they have earned my deep respect. Here’s hoping more teams follow their lead.

Walter Payton: A Football Life

It is wonderful. Here it is.

Marc Trestman Introduces Coaching Staff

I sent a pair of Tweets in the lead-up to Trestman’s formal introduction of his coaching staff to the media and fans Thursday. They were:

Marc Trestman introduces his coaching staff today. Couldn’t have less interest. Wake me up when he introduces his offensive line at camp.

And…

Lions stink. Vikings relied upon arguably the greatest rushing season ever. Trestman & coaches have one team to beat. If they do, playoffs.

I don’t need to hear from Marc Trestman again until he’s coaching the men he believes will be primarily involved in the 2013 campaign. Trestman will be given some wiggle room as the new Bears coach but this is not a rebuilding venture. This is a team built for success this coming season and there will be no time for learning on the job.

DaBearsBlog & ChicagoNow

This website’s planner and delayed move away from ChicagoNow is being delayed a second time. I understand that for many of you this will be unwelcome news but my life at the moment – for entirely positive reasons – is not allowing me the time and energy required to launch the site independently. As we progress through the coming months there will be more updates but for now we’ll be living here at CN. As always, direct all complaints to jeff@dabearsblog. I’ll just keep writing the best material I can write.

Green Bay’s offensive hallmark in the last five years has been their passing game, which makes perfect sense when you consider that they have an all-time great quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. However, two successive playoff failures have made many think that Green Bay, which has not had a rusher go over 750 yards since 2009, needs a feature back who can give them a solid running game.

Many fans are looking longingly at free-agent running back Steven Jackson, who has been a very good running back on many very bad St. Louis Rams teams in the last eight years. ESPN NFL analyst John Clayton has also publicly stated that he thinks this would be a great idea, suggesting that signing him for $5 million would be a great deal for the Packers.

On the surface, this move makes perfect sense. Putting a dangerous running back in an offense that is already explosive can only help improve it. But is this actually the case, and would such a hefty investment be worth it for an older back?

Steven Jackson has already played eight years in the NFL, and he has almost 2400 career carries.  That’s some serious mileage, and it’s fair to worry about diminishing returns once a player has taken that many hits. Let’s look at other running backs in the last twenty years who have more than 2400 carries, and see how they fared.

Looking at the table, it’s hard to think that signing Steven Jackson would be a good idea. Only three of the eleven backs in similar situations to him improved their production after 2,400 carries, and one of those (Warrick Dunn) did so in an extremely limited sample size (186 carries). Of the 33 100-or-more carry seasons by these backs after they had ,2400 carries, only seven (21%) averaged better than their first 2,400 carries. By contrast, nineteen of them (58%) found the backs performing at a clip that was at least 0.3 yards per carry worse than their average from their first 2,400 carries.

To put these numbers in perspective, Steven Jackson has averaged 4.2 yards per carry in his career so far. Based on historical numbers, then, he would have roughly a 20% chance of averaging 4.2 yards per carry or more for the Packers, and close to a 60% chance of averaging 3.9 yards per carry or less. There were 31 NFL running backs who had 100 or more carries while averaging 3.9 yards or more in 2012, including five rookies, four of whom were drafted in the third round or later.

Devin Hester and Brian Urlacher are not financial decisions for Phil Emery and the Chicago Bears. Neither breaks the economic bank because neither poses a make-or-break impact on the 2013 season. Hester could certainly be a productive kick return and Urlacher would stabilize the middle of the defense but if Marc Trestman is relying on either to return to an All-Pro level for a postseason trip he is sorely misguided in his roster analysis.

Henry Melton is an emerging star at defensive tackle and the Bears can address his future with the organization with one of three approaches:

• Set Melton free and allow him to sign a lucrative contract with another organization. (I would imagine the Cowboys would try to find room for Melton immediately.)
• Sign Melton to an extension that should – based on Melton’s production – exceed the 7 year, $50.5 million contract inked by Tommy Kelly of the Oakland Raiders in 2008. Kelly’s contract surprised many around the league and was met by many fans with a collective, “Who?” Melton’s will surprise nobody.
• Tag Melton. According to Ian “I’m Not” Rapoport of NFL.com the franchise tag number for a defensive tackle in 2013 is tentatively set at $8.306 million.

While Henry Melton will assuredly not want to be franchised, franchising him is exactly what the Bears should do. (Side note: I don’t understand why the NFLPA allowed the franchise tag to stay in place only to have every single player complain once it is applied. What’s the point of having labor negotiators for a worthless union? We had a punter last year complain about the tag!)

Melton is a terrific player. His thirteen sacks over the last two seasons show the promise of a player capable of anchoring a defensive line for the better part of a decade. But how does one know if Melton – whose transition to and development at DT is credited equally to Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli – is truly an emerging Warren Sapp or a product of the system and coaching staff? Until Melton has produced outside the DT/sack friendly confines of the Tampa-2 how can the Bears know whether he is worth the long-term financial commitment he is seeking this winter?

Melton is a terrific player but is he a consistently dominant one? (Look no further than Cincinnati and Geno Atkins to see a player who alters the opposition’s offensive game plan on a week-by-week basis for an example of such.) Melton is not that player…yet. While the statistics are starting to lean in his favor the eyeball test reveals Melton is only occasionally disruptive. But don’t think the Bears aren’t aware that Atkins is entering the final year of his rookie contract and could demand upwards of $10 million per moving forward. If they do not hammer out an agreement with Melton and his production increases in 2013, the price tag could be significantly higher.

Is it a risk? Yes. But it is a risk the Bears should take.

The defensive tackle in the modern day NFL is not a statistic-driven position. As the league has moved to the 3-4 in an overwhelming fashion the best DTs in that alignment – Wilfork, Ngata, Hampton – thrive on their ability to disrupt opposing run games and OCCASIONALLY attack the quarterback. Those three in particular make the most out of limited opportunities to rush the passer. The 4-3, Tampa 2 tackle surges through a gap and attack the quarterback. Melton may be the second best in football currently. But the Bears can’t be swayed to overpay a player based on a dearth of talent at his position.

Melton is a terrific player and he should be a member of the Chicago Bears in 2013. Whether he’s a member of the organization in 2014 and beyond should still be up for debate.

Devin Hester is the greatest kick returner in the history of the NFL. He is not a professional caliber cornerback. He is not a professional caliber wide receiver. He is a returner of punts and kickoffs and nobody has done either better. Hester, to the best of my knowledge, is the first player in sports history not content with being the greatest ever at his position.

Nope, Devin Hester wants a change of scenery. He wants to change the scenery. Many of you may not know this but I make my living writing for the professional theatre so I am quite familiar with scenery changes. Scenery is changed during the course of a play to alter the audience’s perception of time and space. It is not changed because an actor/performer is, well, no longer having fun with a particular tree or house-painted flat or stone (if this were a minimalist production of Waiting for Godot). It is not changed because an actor/performer no longer feels comfortable with the present scenery.

Devin Hester does not want a change of the scenery. Hester wants to leave a scene-stealing role in a classical play at an elite Chicago theatre (let’s say Polonious in a well-received Hamlet at the Goodman) for a more prominent role in a lesser production elsewhere (say Mercutio in the Kansas City Rep production of Romeo & Juliet). He is not comfortable blaming his struggles in 2012 on himself – even though his former coordinator Dave Toub was quite comfortable with that scenario. Hester is blaming, what else, the city of Chicago.

And might I add one more point. And I say this having had the pleasure of interviewing Devin Hester on my podcast and genuinely enjoying that interaction. How dare you, Devin? How about some gratitude to the Chicago Bears organization for mistakenly attempting to appease you these last few years and find a successful role outside of special teams? How about some loyalty to a fan base that has cheered your every return and forgiven your every return mistake for the duration of your career? I know professional athletes are some of the most selfish individuals on the planet but could Hester truly be so willing to leave those thousands of #23 jerseys on the Lake Front behind for a chance to catch a few passes in 2013 from Mark Sanchez or Brandon Weeden on gimmick plays?

Regardless of Hester’s blind selfishness, the Chicago Bears organization should not even consider letting him leave town.

GM Phil Emery and head coach Marc Trestman (as well as new special teams coordinator Joe D) should be on the phone with Hester before the start of the free agency period. The Skunk may no longer be returning kicks for touchdowns at the alarming rate he did a few years ago but there are still only a handful of return men in the sport that belong in his conversation. He still possesses the ability to score on every return. He still frightens opposing coaches.

Hester does not need to be abandoned by the Chicago Bears right now. He needs to be recommitted to. And while I’m not pleased with his comments I have too much respect for his past achievements to close the door on a legend. If I’m on the Chicago Bears…that success is not leaving town.

You could make a sound and moat-protected argument the Bears off-season began with the firing of Lovie Smith and subsequent hiring of Marc Trestman as his replacement. Both of those decisions will shape the Chicago Bears for the next half-decade and define the tenure of General Manager Phil Emery in the city of Chicago. But around here, on this blog, I have always believed free agency, roster moves and the draft should not be discussed until after the Super Bowl has been played. It is a gesture on my part. A show of respect for the postseason and the clubs in it. And hey, we have seven months to discuss roster decisions now. Seven months until the Packers or Steelers (I’d guess) travel to Baltimore to kick off the 2013 season.

Today will serve as something of a table of contents for the off-season as we take a look at the issues (major and minor) facing this organization. Each will be addressed in a large, long form piece as we move forward. Here are the basic questions:

• Does Devin Hester have a history in Chicago? Hester is a Bears legend and the greatest kick returner of all time but there seems to be a perception that he’s in need of a change of scenery. It makes little sense to me.
• How will Bears address their two most glaring roster needs: offensive tackle and tight end? Both positions should have serious options at the twentieth pick in the draft, especially Ertz and Eifert at the TE spot.
• Jake Long? At one time Long was the finest left tackle in the sport but he’s declined over the last year or two. Would the Bears be willing to overpay to upgrade their franchise QB’s blindside?
• How much will Phil Emery pay Henry Melton? With the Bears deciding to bring Mel Tucker to town and the 4-3 structure remaining in place, Melton’s worth in Chicago is still quite high. Will Phil Emery break the bank to sign arguably the game’s finest young defensive tackle.
• Will Brian Urlacher finish his career at Soldier Field? Urlacher made it clear he’d take a serious pay cut. Will the Bears offer him one?
• What does Marc Trestman need? We’ve evaluated the Bears offensive needs based primarily on the needs of the former regime but does anybody know the specific types of offensive talent Trestman needs to be successful? I surely don’t.

These are just the beginning of what will be a rejuvenating off-season for the Bears organization.