Why Dave Toub Would Worry Me as Head Coach

John Harbaugh is the poster child for special teams coordinators being hired as head coach. His success has been undeniable. 54-26. 6-4 in the postseason, where his club plays every year. Cameron Worrell told me Dave Toub welcomed the news of Harbaugh’s hiring as a boon for special teams coordinators everywhere. I believe it. But I think the Bears would be making an error in promoting Dave Toub.

Why? Cam Cameron.

What happens if Toub chooses the wrong offensive coordinator? What happens if Toub – a man with no experience on the offensive side of ball – takes the wrong shot and realizes in a year or so that the system is not working? Harbaugh was able to move from Cameron to Jim Caldwell – a respected play caller and former Colts head coach. But could the Bears afford to make such an in-season maneuver when they’ve gone through a coordinator a year for the last decade?

Phil Emery has spent a few hours with just about every offensive coordinator in the league for one reason: he wants a man of vision on that side of the ball and he wants that man to keep Rod Marinelli and his defensive staff in place. That’s how you win in the league these days unless you have Belichick. Or Coughlin. Look at the success of coaches like McCarthy and Payton for the new model. Offensive visionaries willing to hand over the defensive end to a competent “other” like Dom Capers or Steve Spagnuolo.

I’d offer Toub a substantial raise to stay the special team coach in Chicago. I would not promote him to head coach.

I Don’t Know Who Marc Trestman’s Talking About…

But here he is, breaking down the Canadian game. (My instincts tell me this game won’t be a captivating media presence in Chicago.)

Giants Move Training Camp to the Meadowlands

Some franchises want to win. Some franchises don’t accept losing. The New York Giants are the latter. This week they announced they will not spend their summer in Albany – where they’ve been since 1996 – and will instead hold camp at the Timex Center practice facility in the parking lot of MetLife Stadium.

Is it a big deal? Not for many but it is for me. These kinds of moves are what separate the Giants from a majority of teams around the league. They failed to make the postseason in the year after a Super Bowl title and instead of resting on the laurels of their two shiny rings GM Jerry Reese and head coach Tom Coughlin decided to being making structural, organizational changes. Losing is not acceptable to Big Blue and it’s damn admirable.

Good friend of the blog, Cam Worrell, Tweeted this Sunday:

Dear Jay Cutler, this is how you play in the playoffs through a knee injury. Signed, RG3.

Needless to say, Cam took a beating from Bears fans. Today I give him the chance to respond. And then we tack on a discussion of Dave Toub as potentially the next head coach of the Chicago Bears.

Give it a listen.

Phil Emery has specific requirements for the next head coach of the Chicago Bears. He wants someone with high energy. He wants someone who has had success in their current role. He wants someone to provide a synergistic aura throughout the hallowed Halls of Papa Bear.

He wants Washington Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

First, I hate nepotism in the NFL and it’s rampant. The primary reason is simple: I’m jealous. Unless I wanted to be the next star of North Jersey real estate or become the CEO-in-waiting of a profitable moving company, my parents were of no use to me professionally. If my dad were the defensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears I would most likely be the linebackers coach of the Chicago Bears. I mean, I can’t have worse credentials than Bob Babich.

We all know Kyle Shanahan would never have ascended to a coordinator position at this level were his name Kyle Hughes or Kyle MacLachlan. But Shanahan did ascend and did so NOT under the wing of his father Mike but under the wing of his father’s protege, former Broncos backup QB and current Texans head coach Gary Kubiak. And his offenses have been successful, with and without a star quarterback.

Kyle Shanahan brings with him a track record of running successful offenses in Houston and Washington. He specifically brings an ability to install his father’s renowned zone run schemes and display the type of rush attack in Chicago the city and weather require. He also brings with him an asset that none of the other candidates bring: Mike Shanahan. No coach handled the skills and temperament of Jay Cutler better than Mike Shanahan and Kyle’s ability to mine that resource is an asset not to be overlooked.

Kyle Shanahan would also provide something the Bears sideline has lacked for the past 15 years: fire. He is an intense customer, never more on display than when he profanely chased a referee into the tunnel after a September game ended poorly for the Redskins. He apologized for that outburst and paid a heavy fine but that kind of passion is criticized on a sideline defined by Joe Gibbs’ steely class. It would be lauded on a sideline made famous in the modern era by Da Coach.

And Shanahan’s inexperience on the defensive side of the ball, coupled with his desire to climb from his father’s shadow, would certainly make him amenable to keeping Rod Marinelli and the current defensive structure/staff in place. For me this is the difference between the Bears being a contender in 2013 or not.

Would it be a risky hire? Absolutely. And I doubt Phil Emery would make a thirty-three year old his first major hire as a general manager. But Shanahan fits the bill and fills a desperate need in the city of Chicago.

Doesn’t someone like that at least require an interview?

Many, myself included, have been surprised by the meticulousness and breadth of Phil Emery’s first search to fill a head coaching vacancy. Two special teams coaches, what feels like a dozen offensive coordinators and the head man at the Montreal Alouettes have forced beat writers and bloggers to do more extensive Google searches in the last week than they’ve done in the last year. (I’ve exchanged emails with an Alouettes beat man at the Montreal Gazette. They generated very little.)

The surprise is not based on expectations of Emery. Nobody had any expectations of Emery because Emery – until his sprawling, hour-long press conference a week ago – was a shadowy figure pulling the strings in silence. All we really knew about him is that he’s a scout at heart and prefers to spend his time on the road. The surprise was based on an historical understanding of this process for the Chicago Bears since the passing of George S. Halas. This is the team that botched the Dave McGinnis hire. This is the team that had two options in 2004 after being spurned by Nick Saban: Russ Grimm and Lovie Smith. The Chicago Bears head coaching job is one of the crown jewels of the NFL and for the first time in a long time it feels that way.

Now Emery has to do the hard part. He has to hire the right man.

If there is one thing to be learned from these NFL playoffs it is this: the NFL is now about the coach and the quarterback. The rest – defense, backs, play calls, special teams, fan support – is secondary, tertiary, whatever the word is for fourth level. Coach. Quarterback. In a year when Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson climbed the record books the division round of the postseason will feature Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan…etc. And the quarterback can no longer simply manage the game. He must be explosive. That is why Harbaugh made the switch to Kaepernick mid-season and Carroll chose Wilson over Flynn in camp. It’s all about the quarterback.

Emery’s focus during the head coaching search has wisely been on the offensive side of the ball and task number one facing this new coach should be nurturing, developing and draining every ounce of greatness out of Jay Cutler.

There are some in the Chicago media and around the city beginning to wonder if Cutler is the QB of the future. They are questioning whether the organization should pad #6’s banking account in the lead up to the 2013 season – the final of his contract. If the Bears listen to these cries and move in a different direction they’ll be making a decision tantamount to organizational suicide. Cutler’s upside is a quarterback capable of putting an offense on his back loading and playing with just about any great quarterback in the league. Cutler’s downside is what the Bears saw in 2012: a pedantic yet serviceable performance (behind a 10 win club). There is no Good Jay Bad Jay the way there was with Rex Grossman. There is Great Jay Decent Jay (and twice a year 4 Pick Jay but who’s counting).

Now is not the time to run from the enigmatic but supremely talented quarterback. Now is the time to commit to him. Phil Emery must put in place a single offensive system and allow the quarterback to mature within that system over the next 3-4 years. With the exception of Peyton Manning – the greatest regular season player in NFL history – all of the other top tier quarterbacks in the NFL have benefited from operating within a single system for the duration of their careers. (Drew Brees is a possible exception but one can rightfully argue his career began when he arrived in The Big Easy.)

The Bears must also allow this new head coach to draft and develop his own man behind Cutler. And I don’t mean in a seventh-round, undrafted free agent sort of way like Nathan Enderle and Caleb Hanie. As dedicated as the new head coach should be to making Cutler the best player possible he should also not be hamstrung by Cutler’s potential inability to take direction or adapt his playing style. Noll benched Bradshaw. Holmgren knew he could bench Favre.

This decision, this hire, is entirely about the quarterback position for the Chicago Bears. Because without synergy (to use Emery’s word) between the coach and QB Bears fans across this country will continue to spend their January nights scouting college prospects.

The following are my selections for wild card weekend – against the spread, of course.

Cincinnati +4.5 HOUSTON

I am sure the whole world will be turning on the Texans after their miserable finish to the 2012 season…and I’m one of them. I hate this Texans team and I don’t trust their head coach (Kubiak) or defensive coordinator (Wade) or quarterback (Schaub) to win when the spotlight is brightest. If the Texans can’t get their run game ramped up they have no chance and I think Geno Atkins will revel in the national spotlight he desperately deserves. Bengals 24, Texans 16

GREEN BAY -7.5 Minnesota

Forgone conclusion. Now that the Bears (and me personally) have no stake in the Packers winning they will beat the tar out of the Vikings and shut down Adrian Peterson. Packers 30, Vikings 10

Indianapolis +6.5 BALTIMORE

#Chuckstrong. Ravens 20, Colts 17

Seattle -3 WASHINGTON

Best game of wild card weekend by a long shot. I get the sense this will be the first NFL playoff game of the modern era to eerily resemble a college game as a pair of option quarterbacks engage in a game of “who can complete the least number of passes and still win”. I like the Seattle defense to make a big play late.  Seahawks 24, Redskins 20

And for those of you not following @DaBearsBlog on Twitter – you don’t know what you’re missing! Here were my Tweets for each of the clubs playing this weekend.

#1 of 8. If Houston loses to Cincinnati, doesn’t McNair have to contemplate making a change at head coach?

#2 of 8. If Cincinnati beats Houston Saturday it will be because Geno Atkins thrives in national spotlight and wrecks Houston’s run game.

#3 of 8. True Story. In preseason I picked the Minnesota Vikings to have the first pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.

#4 of 8. Does any Bears fan doubt for a second that the Packers will beat the Vikes by 25 Saturday night now that Bears have no stake?

#5 of 8. What if Flacco throws up one of those 11-34, 135 yards, 2 INT performances Sunday? Does Ozzie look elsewhere for QB in 2013?

#6 of 8. Ray Lewis announced his retirement for 1 reason: self promotion. He’s not the type to go quietly. He’s a showman. And a murderer.

#7 of 8. If Seattle had home field advantage in NFC, would any other team be a viable selection to make the Super Bowl? No. That’s insane.

#8 of 8. If Redskins offense outfoxes terrific Seahawks defense with a gimpy quarterback…Emery needs to sit with Kyle Shanahan next week.

During our conversation, Cam discusses:

• Why he would NOT have fired Lovie Smith after the 2012 season.
• How the current crop of Bears defenders could adapt to a changing system.
• How the Bears might prepare, play differently under the total leadership of Rod Marinelli.
• What Lovie Smith’s role was in the development of offensive talent.

#5 Marshall, Marshall, Marshall

Bears fans complained for years about the absence of a number one wide receiver in Chicago. Then, in typical fashion for the Bears fans and media, they complained about overusing the one they got. Brandon Marshall may not have broken the records Calvin Johnson did but he delivered the most spectacular offensive performance in Chicago since #34 wore the navy and orange. If Bears fans are looking for a reason to be optimistic in 2013 and beyond they should look no further than the relationship between their quarterback and their star wide receiver.

#4 Peanut Punch: Nashville & Beyond

Charles Tillman has been the best cornerback, arguably, in the history of the Chicago Bears and this was his finest season. Never was his genius so on display as in the surreal confines of LP Field in Nashville (Soldier Field South) as he forced four fumbles with his patented Peanut Punch. Very few players in NFL history have changed the way the game is played. Tillman is one of them.

#3 Jay Cutler Handed the Vikings 14 points

Ultimately what kept the Bears out of the postseason was simple: they had a weaker season than the Minnesota Vikings. That could have been remedied in Minnesota where the Bears defense shut down AP after early success and allowed the Vikings 14 points off poorly thrown interceptions. The entire Bears team was bad that Sunday. Nobody was worse than Cutler.

#2 Russell Wilson Went 97 Yards

I sat there, in a beautiful seat, on a beautiful December day at Soldier Field. I watched the Bears, leading 14-10, send their punter onto the field and watched as Adam Podlesh pinned the Seahawks inside the five. And then it began, the ascension of Russell Wilson to the upper echelon of the NFL quarterback ranks. 97 yards and a Major Wright dropped interception later the Seahawks had the lead. (Yes, Cutler and company forced this game to overtime but this drive was the ultimate soul sucker.) If the Bears defense stops the ‘Hawks they would currently be preparing to play on wild card weekend.

#1 Gabe Carimi Could Not Play Tackle

It was the most essential misstep by the Chicago Bears coaching staff heading into the 2012 campaign: believing Gabe Carimi would be a capable right tackle. Carimi’s struggles forced offensive coordinator Mike Tice to make up for deficiencies on both sides of the offensive line and dramatically limit what the club’s offense could attempt. They will never get that opportunity now.

The Chicago Bears have failed to reach the postseason in 2012 and it has cost Lovie Smith his head coaching job. Today and tomorrow I’ll present my ten definitive factors/moments/developments of the 2012 campaign. They are the reasons the Bears succeeded and – perhaps more important – failed over the course of this roller coaster campaign.

#10 Six INT TDs in Five Weeks

To quote a Larry Mayer: “Not only has the unit broke a franchise record by returning six interceptions for touchdowns, it set the mark in a five-game span—in wins over the Rams, Cowboys, Jaguars, Lions and Panthers.” The Bears were not just one of the best defenses in the league in 2012; they were the best scoring defense perhaps in the sport’s history. They lit up the scoreboard for five weeks and ushered the Bears to an exhilarating 7-1 start.

#9 Disappearance of Devin Hester

Many Bears fans have grown accustomed to expecting the same thing each and every Sunday: Devin Hester returning kicks for a touchdowns. We’ve become so accustomed to The Skunk streaking through the end zone that it made no sense to expect anything else. Hester not only failed to score but he looked tentative with punts in the air, made poor decisions throughout the year and failed to show the burst on kickoffs he’d patented in the past. (You can also add that Adam Podlesh’s miserable first half contributed to an off year for Dave Toub’s normally stellar special teams units.) The Bears had one of the game’s great edges. They lost it in 2012.

#8 Health

Brian Urlacher was non-existent for most of the season. Robbie Gould couldn’t walk during the pivotal Minnesota game. Alshon Jeffery missed half the season and stunted the development of what looks to be a dynamic wide receiver. Matt Forte had bad ankles. Lance Louis, the Bears’ only reliable lineman, went down with an ugly looking knee injury. Jay Cutler, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester and Shea McClellin each missed time with concussions. Injuries weren’t to blame for the Bears missing the playoffs but they were a defining factor over the second half of the year.

#7 Adrian Peterson Joined the RB Rushmore

The Bears would be preparing for a postseason tilt at San Francisco this week except for one factor: Adrian Peterson. Nobody believed the Vikings were capable of surviving a two-game stretch at Houston in Week 16 and home to Green Bay in Week 17 undefeated. Not only did they survive but they blew out the Texans on the road and Peterson single-handedly tore through the Packers defense to the tune of 200 yards. If Peterson does not return from ACL surgery and deliver the most rousing rushing season in NFL history, the Bears might have entered the final week of the season preparing to rest their starters for wild card weekend.

#6 Packer Weak

When Lovie Smith joined the Bears he made beating the Green Bay Packers his priority and early in his tenure was successful. For the past three seasons the Bears have looked out-manned and out-coached every Sunday the two rivals have met. In order to beat the modern Packers the opposing offense must score points because Rodgers and company don’t make many mistakes and don’t turn the ball over frequently – two things a Lovie defense capitalizes on. The next coach must be able to walk up to Lambeau and post 30 with long, well-executed offensive drives. As Emery said in his press conference, it comes down to having more playmakers than the other guys. When the Bears have met the Packers in recent years the Packers have won that battle.

Tomorrow: #5-1

Phil Emery was named the General Manager of the Chicago Bears at the beginning of the 2012. He waited until the final day of that year to make his most significant, dramatic and gutsy move. He fired head coach Lovie Smith – a man with significant support amongst the fans and near-unanimous support inside the locker room.

Here are my rapid fire reactions to today’s press conference:

• He’s got a definitive look. The coat looks tweed. The glasses are borderline iconic. If he wins here I’d imagine this thing will take off.
• Made a point to comment on Lovie’s “defensive excellence” multiple times. Not team excellence. Defensive excellence.
• Emery wants the Bears in the playoffs on a consistent basis. Not being there 5 of 6 years cost Lovie.
• This change was very much about achieving consistency on the offensive side of the ball.
• Phil Emery making it very clear this was his decision. He presented his options to Ted and George and after some hard-line questioning they allowed him to make the decision.
• Emery truly owning the decision. Making it clear to those in the room he’s in charge.
• “Be in the hunt for championships on a consistent basis” repeated multiple time.
• Candidate musts: (1) Excellence in their current role – will seek a wide range of candidates. (2) Administrative/organizational skills. (3) Leader of men. (4) High energy. “Pulls everybody together in the building.” (5) Good on their feet with the media. Rare to hear this mentioned but very important in Chicago.
• Process will be executed with thoroughness but with a sense of urgency. He’d like to have a head coach hired by the East/West and Senior Bowl games.
• Makes clear that Jay Cutler is the franchise quarterback and next coach should be prepared to coach him.
• Some of the current coaches on the staff “may end up back here”. I would not rule out Rod Marinelli as defensive coordinator or Dave Toub as special teams coach.
• Assistant coaches were given extra year at start of last season to protect them and protect the team. Very interesting. Emery seems to have had this change in mind from day one.
• Emery wants a coach to adapt to his roster and understand the roster will continue to grow. This is not the beginning of a rebuilding stage, folks.
• Sure sounds like the Bears will stay with a 4-3 defense. He knows the talent is there to run a 4-3 and wants them in place.
• No discussion of Brian Urlacher. Commented that 54 looked “rusty”. Liked his performance in the Seattle. I maintain Brian Urlacher will be in a Bears uniform next year. Says it will be difficult to replace Urlacher’s “knowledge base of our system.” Sure sounds like the Tampa 2 alignment/base will be the defense in 2013.
• Will conduct interviews with head coaches himself, narrow the pool down to two or three and bring Ted and George into the fray. The final decision will belong to Phil Emery and Phil Emery only.
• Decision wasn’t finalized to fire Lovie Smith until Monday morning. Emery dodged the question of whether making the postseason this year would have influenced his decision. (I take that to mean he knew this was coming.)
• Wow. Phil Emery shouts out to Stats Inc. and PFF. Good for those guys.
• According to data the Bears were 26th in the league as a pass protecting offensive line.
• Bears were 22nd in the league when it comes to dropped passes. (Surprised they were this high.)
• Emery makes definitive statement: you have to have more playmakers than the other guys.
• Emery spent ten minutes explaining the decisions made along the offensive line this off-season.
• Chose Alshon Jeffery over riskier picks along the offensive line. Does not regret that decision.
• Bears need to get better at the midfield area of the field. Criticizes lack of using Forte in the passing game. Comments that Kellen Davis “had a rough year”. Hypothesizes about the lack of consistency from Earl Bennett.
• Emery is a joy to listen to if you’re a football nerd. I, my friends, am a football nerd.
• Stated Henry Melton “got better as a run player”. Tempering enthusiasm for contract negotiation?
• I believe Emery just said he coached both swimming and lacrosse.
• Money will be no issue when finding a new head coach and hiring his staff. One of the antiquated concepts about the McCaskey family is they’re cheap. They haven’t been cheap for more than a decade.
• “We want to win championships now.” Emery being very clear the Bears are NOT rebuilding.

Three words to define Emery: meticulous, passionate, honest. If you did not watch or listen to the press conference, go find it.

The Chicago Bears can not be eliminated from playoff contention if they beat the Arizona Cardinals this afternoon. But if they want to have a serious opportunity in the seventeenth week of the season, they need some help.

The ideal outcomes:

1. Minnesota loses to Houston. This is the most essential early outcome as it will eliminate the Vikings from the proceedings and not force Bears fans to root for the Packers in Week 17.
2. Either Washington loses to Philly or Dallas loses to New Orleans. If one of those teams loses it’ll give the Bears a second scenario to advance in Week 17.
3. New York Giants lose to Baltimore. If the Vikings and Giants lose, the Bears control their own destiny again.

Here’s my advice to Bears fans today: enjoy it. Nobody wanted this season to take the turn it has taken but today is a day to embrace the brilliance of the NFL. Folks are fond of saying college football has the best regular season in sports. I dare those folks to make that pitch on a day when more than half the NFL games have playoff relevance.

Bear down.