Picks Contest

Only four weeks remain in the blog picks contest – a raging success in its inaugural year. Home team in CAPS.

CHICAGO vs. Minnesota is off the board. Jay Cutler won’t be cleared till Saturday and, really, who has the time?

Pittsburgh -1.5 CLEVELAND

CINCINNATI -8 Oakland

INDIANAPOLIS -3 Buffalo

Denver -10.5 KANSAS CITY

Tennessee -4 JACKSONVILLE

Atlanta -1 TAMPA BAY

Seattle -2.5 MIAMI

NEW ORLEANS pk San Francisco

SAN DIEGO pk Baltimore

ARIZONA -2.5 St. Louis

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 Green Bay

My pick: Denver beats Kansas City 40-6 in a half empty stadium.

_________________________________

Updated Standings w/ Thanksgiving Bonuses. (Remember these are winning records only.)

I Bleed Navy + Orange 10-1

Viva 9-2

Crown 9-2

MikeV in Or 6-1

OsosFan 5-1

BobbyDouglass 4-1

ben in norcal 8-2

Enderwiggin 8-2

evantonio 8-2

Bearfanincb 7-2

MonkeyNuts 7-2

Artoo 8-3

Bears-4-Ever 7-3

Blogfader 7-3

jmcyclone 6-2

TheFifth 6-3

BearDown85 6-4

Reprisal 6-4

4EverBears85 (aka Butch Deadlift) 6-4

505Bears!!! 4-3

SirWiz 4-3

As always, tell me if I’m wrong by emailing jeff@dabearsblog.com

Simple game to evaluate.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• I think Jay Cutler is coming back.
• I think the Bears defense is angry they looked so awful Monday night.
• I think Percy Harvin will be limited due to a nagging ankle injury. Harvin is an excellent player but once he starts to be hobbled by injury it usually don’t stop.
• The Chicago Bears have to beat two players Sunday at Soldier Field. Let’s talk about each.

THE BEARS ON OFFENSE: STOPPING JARED ALLEN

Jared Allen is arguably the best pass rushing 4-3 defensive end in the sport. He can wreck a football game. And while he’s entering Soldier Field with only seven sacks on the year one can logically assume he expects to exit with 10 or 11 in the stat column. That’s what a premiere pass rusher sees when they look at tape of the two gentlemen playing offensive tackle for the Chicago Bears. (And the backups aren’t exactly intimidating.) He sees a padded sheet. He sees glory.

The Allen Challenge does not belong to J’Marcus Webb. Webb isn’t in Allen’s class and he’s not going to be anytime ever. The Allen Challenge belongs to Mike Tice. How will Tice prevent a wrecked game? There are a dozen options. He can chip Allen with backs. He can bring Evan Rodriguez and Matt Spaeth to Allen’s side consistently. He can take James Brown or Gabe Carimi or whomever is not starting at right tackle and park him next to Webb, sticking with a “big” package for the entire afternoon.

If Tice can’t find the right scheme or package of players to slow Allen down Sunday then he’s simply unfit to lead this offense and should be dismissed as the primary play caller before the Bears and Seahawks kick off on December 2nd. The Bears have to simplify everything Sunday. Run it. Throw short. Block. Kick field goals. Win.

THE BEARS ON DEFENSE: STOPPING ADRIAN PETERSON

The Vikings don’t have a complicated run scheme. They hand off to one of the greatest running backs to ever live, Adrian Peterson, and he runs the ball exceptionally hard. This season he’s doing so after a miraculous comeback from tearing his knee apart at the end of the 2011 season.

Here’s what he’s done thus far:

The Bears were physically manhandled by the Niners Monday night. (Watch Frank Gore light up Lance Briggs again if you don’t believe me.) If they allow themselves to punished at the point of attack again Peterson will unload on them for 200+ and a couple touchdowns. If they allow Peterson to run wild it will allow Christian Ponder operate a manageable, play action offense and avoid big errors. It all comes down to holding Peterson to the 12 carries for 30-something yards he had a year ago at Soldier Field.

PREDICTION

A year ago the Bears went to Detroit on a Monday and were embarrassed in front of a national audience. Six days later they hosted the Minnesota Vikings and Jay Cutler threw them out of the building, winning 39-10. Now they’re hosting the Vikings again, six days after another Monday Night Football disaster. Will the result be the same?

Chicago Bears 24, Minnesota Vikings 10

A Note of Thanks.

Thanks to you all for making this another incredible year on DBB and I look forward to all of you following us as we head rogue (again) in 2012. We’re working daily to build something you will all love.

The Standings

I am only including those who currently have a winning record. Anyone with a losing or .500 record needs a miracle to win the contest. If you have a losing record, keep making picks and I’ll continue tracking them.

Viva 9-1

Crown 9-2

I Bleed Navy + Orange 9-2

MikeV in Or 6-1

OsosFan 5-1

BobbyDouglass 4-1

Bearfanincb 7-2

MonkeyNuts 7-2

Artoo 8-3

evantonio 7-3

Bears-4-Ever 7-3

Enderwiggin 7-3

Blogfader 7-3

ben in norcal 7-3

jmcyclone 6-2

TheFifth 6-3

BearDown85 6-4

505Bears!!! 4-3

SirWiz 4-3

Note: As always just send me an email to jeff@dabearsblog.com and let me know if there’s an error in your current status. I’ll correct it in short order if you’re right.

The Thanksgiving Bonus

This will be your best opportunity all season to get some bonuses and erase some negative weeks. The task is simple. Pick all three games against the spread. If you get two out of three correct, you’ll be awarded one bonus week. If you get all three correct you’ll be awarded two bonus weeks. You can go from having 2 losses to undefeated in one day.

The lines. Home team in CAPS.

Houston -3 DETROIT

My pick: I watched every snap of Detroit versus the Packers and Matt Stafford is playing football at a terrible level right now. Does Houston suffer the sniffles on the short week? Nope. Texans.

DALLAS -3 Washington

My pick: I don’t trust Dallas to beat anyone at any time anymore. I’ll take the Redskins.

New England -7 NEW YORK JETS

My pick: Everyone in the Jets organization has been ripped publicly for the last two weeks and rightly so. They are a dysfunctional, unlikable lot who’ve turned on each other in an almost glorious fashion. But one thing Rex Ryan has done well in New York is play Tom Brady and the Patriots. I think that continues. I’m taking Jets and the points.

If you’re going to pick all three games, those picks must be in by kickoff of the opener. You may pick the latter games only. Those picks must be in by kickoff of the second game.

Note: Make sure you stop by tomorrow morning. There will be significant picks contest bonus potential for the Thanksgiving games.

I have been receiving multiple Tweets and emails all basically alluding to the same idea: the 2012 season for the Chicago Bears is not “over” but expectations for that season have been lowered immensely. My only question is a simple one: why?

What did we learn Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers that we did not already know? We know the Bears were not a legitimate playoff threat without Jay Cutler playing quarterback. We know the offensive line will not hold up, unless given significant assistance, against the best pass rushes in the sport. We know Lovie Smith’s defenses, even when playing their best, are prone to a disastrous night or two along the way. (2006 Dolphins, anyone?) We know the head coach is a solid leader of men but rarely gets the best of the top tier head coaches in the league. And I believe we have learned over the course of this season’s first ten games that Mike Tice is a fun interview and a somewhat awful offensive coordinator.

But suddenly, because the Bears have caught in the standings by the prohibitive preseason Super Bowl favorite, the alien spacecraft has settled above the Lakefront with its death beam pointed directly at Soldier Field. Rahm has declared a state of emergency. Production on the new season of Boss has been delayed. There is a sign on the front door of the Green Mill Lounge reading “How Can You Think of Jazz at a Time Like This?”

Remember, this is the new NFL. There are not great teams on a consistent week-to-week basic in the regular season. Houston needed two scores in overtime to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Super Bowl champion Giants were trounced in Cincinnati the last time they took the field. Did you see Green Bay and Atlanta win Sunday? Did either impress you even remotely? The Patriots run a tight end specific offense and may not have a healthy tight end on the field for a month. I’m not arguing the Bears are a great team. They’re not. Not with Tice calling the plays and those five fellas up front blocking. What I am arguing is there are NO great teams anywhere to be found in the NFL these days.

To make Monday night the game by which you judge the season seems foolish. If the defense does not show up, as they did not against Colin Kaepernick and the boys, the Bears don’t have a chance to beat a good team without their starting quarterback. This Bears club, perhaps more than any other team in the sport, can not erase large deficits because they can’t protect the passer down for down over the long haul of a second half.

The 2012 Bears have a specific identity. They play ferocious defense, turn you over, keep the game close and blow your doors off in the fourth quarter with a quarterback who has dominated late. Will that identity hold through the duration of the regular season and into January? We don’t have to guess. Minnesota and Seattle are their prime competitors for the wild card spot in the NFC and they are three of the next four dates on the calendar. Green Bay is the fourth, at Soldier Field, to possibly decide the division title. If the Bears go 3-1 over these next four nobody will remember the Monday night meltdown.

And then we’ll see where expectations sit.

The truth is this: we don’t know what Monday night in San Francisco meant. We don’t know if it’s the beginning of a second-half meltdown or merely an example of the Bears coaching staff being outmatched by a more talented group. The focus must shift to Minnesota – the biggest game of the Bears season. Thoughts on last night…

• Was the Bears game plan for Vernon Davis really a combination of Major Wright and Lance Briggs in coverage?
• Have the Bears not seen tape of Aldon Smith? How could it be that I spent more time attempting to scheme ways to block one of the best rushers in the game than they did?
• 3rd and 3. First drive of the game. Do the Bears not have a short pass in the playbook? Does every third down have to involve the quarterback dropping into a deep pocket?
• Was I wrong about Jason Campbell? Well I sure wasn’t RIGHT. But I’d like to see him play this game not trailing by seventeen points at essentially the opening whistle.
• Have you ever seen a wide receiver run a worse route than Devin Hester’s intercepted out route?
• Gabe Carimi looks defeated out there and it’s understandable. When you’re getting thrown to the ground on Monday Night Football you know it’s only a matter of time before you are no longer part of the starting unit. I know he’s a good run blocker. But he’s not that good.
• Hi, J’Marcus Webb. Welcome back.
• Missing tackles? The Bears have missed about 5 tackles all year! They missed 50 last night!
• Until further notice, the Major Wright to the Pro Bowl chatter has to quiet down. On a night the Bears gave Wright a prominent defensive role, he folded.
• I can’t remember Bears linebackers looking so feeble. Did you see Lance Briggs get pancaked by a running back? The LB play is one reason I’m willing to write this off as an exception rather than the rule.
• No pass rush.
• No running game.
• No blocking.
• Let’s spend a minute or two on the coaching. I’m going to give Lovie & Rod a pass because they’ve anchored the best defensive unit in Chicago for some time. But it time to recognize that Mike Tice and Jeremy Bates are not going to find their rhythm in 2012. (And I’m not sure 2013 looks very good either.)
• Nice punting, Adam Podlesh. You saved your first night of decent kicks for a night the Bears didn’t need ’em. (But it’s a step…)
• I do like seeing Devin Hester catch punts and run backwards. There’s something old timey about it.

There’s more. But really, what’s the point? The Bears were shellacked on the road by a very good team. Are the Bears a very good team? I think so, yes. But fans are right to question whether they’re a true contender for a title. Those same conversations happened in San Francisco when the Giants embarrassed them and in New York when the giants laid an egg in Cincinnati. The only way you can answer the question is by winning the following week.

Three final thoughts:

• If Mike Tice throws it more than he runs it tonight we may be entering “he’s not fit to be an offensive coordinator” territory. You don’t have to average 6 yards a clip but if the Bears veer away from the ground game at any point they will end up exposing their issues in pass protection to a ferocious rush.
• I don’t believe in litmus test games in November but this is absolutely a litmus test game for Adam Podlesh. We are likely to see twenty punts and Podlesh can’t put the Niners in position to be in field goal range over a first down or two. He needs to have his best game tonight.
• I wouldn’t want to make my first career NFL start against this Bears defense. I think Colin Kaepernick starting for the concussed Alex Smith is a HUGE deal. Smith is not flashy but he’s consistent, accurate and mistake free. Can Kaepernick string together six or seven throws in a row to beat this defense? I don’t see it.

Bear down. Cowbear lost on Sunday night but he’s never lost on Monday.

I wrote a stunning game preview on Wednesday of late week. I was spinning prose like Dickens and finding better videos than Red Tube on its best day. Each time my fingers hit the keyboard I could, for the first time, imagine what Orwell must have felt as he tapped into his old Remington, “It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.”

Then Alex Smith passed his concussion test.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.

PERTINENT STATISTICS

• You think scoring will be easy? Niners allow 14.1 points per game. Bears allow 14.8 points per game. You can’t run on either. Can’t throw on either. They’re good.
• Bears have a +14 turnover ratio. Niners have a +4.
• Vernon Davis has 29 catches, 404 yards and 4 touchdowns.
• Kellen Davis has 11 catches, 150 yards and 2 touchdowns.
• Chicago quarterbacks have been sacked 28 times. San Francisco quarterbacks have been sacked 29 times. Chicago has sacked opposing quarterbacks 26 times. San Francisco has sacked opposing quarterbacks 17 times.

LESS PERTINENT ANALYSIS

• If the Bears run the ball less than thirty times, they will have made a major tactical error.
• Will Evan Rodriguez be moved to full-time tight end? Will Kyle Adams see his snaps increase? Will Matt Spaeth become more involved in the passing game? My answer to all three: no. I think the Bears will give Kellen Davis one more opportunity to be the pass catching threat they require from the TE position. If he fails, he’s out.
• I think Jason Campbell will play a conservative, mistake-free game for the most part but I also think he’ll take a few deep shots down the field. The return of Alshon Jeffery means those shots will probably go in his direction, not in the direction of Devin Hester.
• I get worried when coaches come down ill midweek and Jim Harbaugh’s irregular heartbeat procedure falls into that category. It always adds a certain “let’s win this for Jim” element that can not be qualified in normal football prognostication.
• I’m assuming the Bears camp Charles Tillman on his old buddy Randy Moss who – trust me – will want nothing to do with that type of physical battle. That means Tim Jennings will spend most of his evening making sure Michael Crabtree doesn’t run wild. Crabtree is finally coming into his own as a wide receiver and he’s doing so with a mix of down field receptions and bubble screens/run after the catch. This won’t be a night about Jennings intercepting the ball. It will be a night about Jennings tackling.
• Who covers Vernon Davis? (Just a question. No answer.)
• When Jay Cutler went down in 2011 we all complained it would expose the lack of talent around backup Caleb Hanie. It did. There is tremendous skill position talent around Jason Campbell now, especially the big wide receiver. Brandon Marshall should catch ten passes tonight, even if those passes are all within three yards of the line of scrimmage. Get the ball to your playmakers and let them make plays. Marshall is the Bears best playmaker.

BUT JEFF, IT’S THE BACKUP QUARTERBACK!

This is what Marshall did against the league’s best corner and Matt Moore as quarterback.

THIS GAME WILL COME DOWN TO SPECIAL TEAMS

I don’t hide my love for special teams. I love punting. I love kickoff coverage. I love field position. I love it all. This is an intriguing special teams battle.

Andy Lee is a great punter – both for distance and direction. On a night like Monday night he’ll rescue the Niners on 3 or 4 occasions. Adam Podlesh has landed maybe 2 or 3 decent kicks all year, including a nice bouncer inside the five against the Texans. The Bears need to hope Podlesh uses that kick as a springboard. I’m doubtful. Advantage 49ers.

Robbie Gould had an uncharacteristic miss in a clutch situation Sunday night but, hey, I’m letting him slide. He’s made too many big kicks in too many big spots to be bothered by a single miss. David Akers is coming off his career year in 2011 but has been awful in 2012, missing 6 kicks through 9 games, including a game-winning 41 yarder against the Rams last week. He missed only 8 in total last year. Advantage Bears.

Return game statistics are always misleading so ignore them. Here’s what you need to know. Ted Ginn Jr. and Devin Hester are both capable of scoring every time they touch the ball. Draw.

THRIVE/SURVIVE!

• Thrive: Cam Worrell blamed Nate Collins for both of the the longer runs on the Texans touchdown drive. Don’t think the Niners won’t notice. If Collins is active Sunday, and he should be, expect Jim Harbaugh to attack him with Frank Gore in much the same way.
• Survive: Aldon Smith will have to choose between J’Marcus Webb and Gabe Carimi Monday. I think he chooses the latter. Carimi grades out as one of the best run-blocking tackles in the sport but one of the worst pass protectors.

HAVE SOME SINATRA…

PREDICTION

The Niners have their starting quarterback tonight. They are coming off a tie, at home, to an inferior team. But I don’t trust them to move the ball consistently against the Bears defense and I think Jason Campbell makes just enough plays. (Do I actually think these things? No. I think the Niners will win. But this site has never picked an opponent and we’re not starting now!)

Chicago Bears 13, San Francisco 49ers 10

Apologies to the Reverend’s logo, not pictured. Today’s photo is our draft party ticket winner in the brilliant seats provided her by DaBearsBlog. We’re glad she had a great time. Who will be joining us free of charge for our draft party in 2013? It could be you!

Picks Contest:

Crown has shown weakness. Who will attack? (I will do updated standings of ONLY THOSE WITH WINNING RECORDS next week.)

Home teams in CAPS

WASHINGTON -3.5 Philadelphia

ATLANTA -9 Arizona

Tampa Bay -1.5 CAROLINA

Green Bay -3.5 DETROIT

DALLAS -8 Cleveland

ST. LOUIS -3.5 New York Jets

NEW ENGLAND -9 Indianapolis

HOUSTON -14.5 Jacksonville

Cincinnati -3 KANSAS CITY

New Orleans -4.5 OAKLAND

DENVER -7.5 San Diego

Baltimore -3.5 PITTSBURGH

Side note: You are not out of this yet. There will be three, three, THREE picks contest bonus opportunities on Thanksgiving Day.

Sélection du blogpère: I’ll be rooting hard for Detroit so I’m picking Green Bay, laying three and a half, to keep myself from having a dud of a Sunday. I hope the Packers lose by 60.

Note: At publishing time, Jay Cutler has not been ruled out for Monday night’s game. But I maintain a firm belief that we won’t see Jay until next Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings.

UPDATE 11/16. 11:52 am CT. Jay Cutler has been ruled out Monday night against the 49ers.

When the 2011 season ended, Jason Campbell believed he would find a starting job outside Oakland in 2012. By the start of free agency he understood that to be unlikely and on the first day of the signing period inked a surprising $3.5 million contract to backup Jay Cutler for the Chicago Bears. It was a coup for new Bears GM Phil Emery; a man determined to never allow another season on the Lakefront be Hanie’d.

I imagine the conversation between Jason Campbell and his agent went something like this:

Campbell: So there’s no starting jobs out there?

Agent: No.

Campbell: What’s the best backup job out there?

Agent: Well, there are possibilities.

Campbell: Okay…

Agent: The Jets have Mark Sanchez but they are running an offense from the Triassic Period and their best running back is Shonn Greene.

Campbell: That doesn’t sound good.

Agent: And their owner never takes his baseball cap off. Never trust a man over 50 in a baseball cap.

Campbell: What else?

Agent: The Rams are looking for a backup to Sam Bradford but you’ll more than likely be mopping up losses for a four-win teams.

Campbell: No mops.

Agent: Okay.

Campbell: Is that it?

Agent: The Bears.

Campbell: Cold there…

Agent: Yea but…

Campbell: Real cold…

Agent: Only in the winter.

Campbell: I’m from Mississippi.

Agent: Yes, yes…

Campbell: Went to Auburn…

Agent: Went UNDEFEATED at Auburn one year!

Campbell: Don’t remind me.

Agent: Sorry.

Campbell: Undefeated in the SEC! Undefeated in the gosh darn SEC with Cadillac and Ronnie and Carlos and Marcus McNeil and –

Agent: I know.

Campbell: It’s cold in Chicago.

Agent: They are a good team. Potentially great team. But their offensive line can’t pass protect and the backup quarterback is always ten seconds away from taking over a playoff run. Did you see what Caleb Hanie walked into last year?

Campbell: Who?

Agent: Caleb Hanie.

Campbell: Never heard of him.

Agent: He’s the night manager at a Denver Chik-Fil-A but last year he was the backup quarterback in Chicago. Took over a 7-3 team and ran them into the ground. Imagine that were you…

Campbell: What?

Agent: Imagine you were taking over a 7-3 team.

Campbell: Yea.

Agent: Right?

Campbell: That’d be nice.

Agent: You take over that 7-3, win a couple games and you’re in the playoffs. Then you showcase your talent for the league. You’ll be starting again the next season.

Campbell: I like it.

Agent: Should we sign there?

Campbell: How much?

Agent: I can get them to $3.5 million.

Campbell: Not bad.

Agent: I’m good at my job.

Campbell: See if they’ll throw in a coat.

Monday night is Campbell’s night. Its an opportunity to peddle his wares for the whole of the league, on national television, against one of the best defenses in the sport. Campbell is not Todd Collins, an old man trying to stabilize the position. He is not Josh McCown, a journeyman trying to capitalize on a last shot at NFL success. He is not Caleb Hanie, a young quarterback trying to find a foothold in the league. Campbell is trying to prove to every GM in this nation he is worthy of being their opening day starter in September 2013. (And if he’s unable to do that, he’s trying to show Phil Emery he’s worth a long-term extension as Cutler’s backup.)

How can he do it? It won’t be by flinging the ball forty yards whenever he sees Devin Hester running down the sideline. No NFL franchise will be signing Campbell this offseason to be the second coming of Dan Fouts. It will be by handing the ball to Forte and Bush 40 times. It will be by avoiding the edge rush and using his legs to extend plays/move the chains. It will be by putting together a stat line that looks something like this: 14-20, 189 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT.

Most importantly, it will be by winning – by beating the Niners and their defense in their house. If Campbell does that Monday night I would imagine folks in New Jersey, Arizona and Kansas City would take notice. I know the folks at Halas Hall will.