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YOUR LINES FOR THE WEEK:

RAVENS -3.5 Jets / Pats -4 RAIDERS / PACKERS -13 Broncos / CHARGERS -7.5 Dolphins / Giants -1 CARDINALS / Falcons -4.5 SEAHAWKS / TEXANS -4.5 Steelers / BEARS -6.5 Panthers / Vikings -1 CHIEFS / Bills -3 BENGALS / BROWNS -1 Titans / Redskins -1 RAMS / Saints -7 JAGUARS / COWBOYS -2.5 Lions / BUCS -10 Colts / EAGLES -9 49ers

Pick three games against the spread and you can’t duplicate the selections of myself or my brothers.

CURRENTLY ON THE BOARD:

The Brothers:  Jon (7-1-1), Jeff (5-4), Chris (4-5)

The Commenter Perfect Weeks: FQD1911 (2), Big Daddy (1), DYLbears23 (1), New Bear in Town (1), BossBear90 (1)

Jeff Pearlman is taking a beaten from Chicago Bears fans and from seemingly everyone associated even peripherally with the great 1985 team.  Well regarded fans believe the personal life of Sweetness is private business and does not belong in the public forum.  Mike Ditka said publicly he would spit on Pearlman if he encountered him.  The issue even worked its way into the current group’s press conferences, with both Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher – two players who started their own careers after #34’s death – defending the character of the namesake of the NFL’s Man of the Year award.

I understand Payton’s legacy in the Chicago Bears organization and the city of Chicago.  I understand that to an entire generation of individuals he is more than a football player.  He is someone to idolize.  He’s (dare I say it) a hero.

This brings me to Tribune columnist John Kass; a nice guy by most accounts.  Quite honestly I’d never heard of John Kass until Tuesday night when he appeared rather prominently in Alex Gibney’s Catching Hell documentary on ESPN.  In the documentary, Kass attempts to hand Steve Bartman his business card just moments after Bartman’s fateful “mistake”.  Bartman, a devoted Cubs fan, had his life ruined by the Chicago media in the days following Alex Gonzalez’ inability to field a routine double-play ball.  Not by Kass.  You see, Bartman did not take Kass’ business card that day.  Bartman’s never taken an opportunity to speak to the media, no matter the financial gain. This doesn’t mean Kass wasn’t ready to lead off and make someone attending a sporting event the story of the sporting event.

Why do I tell you this?  Because Kass wrote a piece in the Tribune claiming Walter Payton did not deserve the treatment given by Pearlman.  What did Bartman deserve, John?  What made you so willing in the moment to exploit the mistake of a regular guy who’d purchased a ticket and yet makes you so squeamish at the thought of a great player’s off-field legacy being tarnished?  Tarnished, I might add, by what is apparently the truth.

I never idolized Walter Payton off the field.  Walter Payton or any other athlete.  And if Jeff Pearlman’s book is well-researched and accurate, why doesn’t it deserve to be written?  Why doesn’t the information belong out there?  Who decides which subjects are worthy of reporting and not worthy of reporting?

And not to go all Jason Whitlock on everybody but why would this tarnish anything of Payton’s legacy?  Mickey Mantle is still the most celebrated ballplayer in the history of New York City and his nights of carousing while a fifth of scotch took the fast lane to his liver have been the subject of multiple tomes and major film for HBO.  People greet this information with a snicker and sneer and accompany stories of his on-field dominance with a nostalgic, “and we barely woke him up at his locker that morning.”

So maybe Walter struggled with his life after being the most famous athlete in the city of Chicago and one of the most famous in the country.  Maybe he struggled with both the physical tool of all those hits and the emotional toll of no more stadiums full of adoring fans.  Maybe he sought to fill those voids with prescription  medication and the adoring women lingering after speaking engagements.  Who.  Fucking.  Cares.  This does not tarnish a yard Payton gained on football fields across this country.

The response to Pearlman’s book in and around Chicago feels like a natural counterpart to Gibney’s Bartman documentary.  Sports are something we all love.  When we confuse them with actual life, we’ve lost touch with a basic reality.  Walter Payton was a great football player and a flawed man.  What could make him more real than that?

If you gave me some truth serum, I might admit that I like Ron Rivera more than Lovie Smith.  Nope, don’t even need the truth serum.  Ron Rivers played linebacker for the greatest football team there ever was and coordinated the defense which nearly carried the organization to a second title.  He and Thomas Jones were shown the door and the Bears went back into the tank.  I know it was not a coincidence.  He’ll have something to prove Sunday at Soldier Field.  I just don’t think he has the horses in 2011.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• Defensively the Carolina Panthers just don’t possess much to actually frighten this Bears offense.  (The Bears offense does a good enough job frightening itself.)  They have only five sacks on the season and the Bears should be able to keep Charles Johnson, the most insanely paid player in the NFL, off Cutler’s back.  With the injuries Carolina has suffered at linebacker any blitzes will cost them big yardage on short throws from Cutler to Forte, Hester…etc.
• The Bears will sell out to stop the run because they know Ron Rivera and Chud are not crazy enough to have Cam Newton put the ball in the air 40 times against a defense that lives off the turnover.  The Bears also know the Panthers will see the tape of Starks and Grant running cutbacks free through their second level and will expect the same approach from Williams and Stewart.
• If Newton is going to beat the Bears in the air, he’s going to need to connect on the slant routes and under zone stuff he’s yet to successfully do as a pro.  The QBs that have success against this defense display two distinct qualities: patience and accuracy.  You have to wait for that tight end to slide away from the defender in the middle of the field.  You have to wait for the receiver to duck into the space between corner and safety.  You have to throw the ball into tight spots.  Is Cam that kind of player?  I don’t think so.  Certainly not yet.
• Pro Panthers, Volume I.  I am not one to read too significantly into the first three weeks but as I wrote yesterday the Bears are getting thrashed by pass-catching tight ends.  The Panthers have a good one named Greg Olsen.
• Pro Panthers, Volume II.  I still have nightmares of Steve Smith in the 2005 postseason.  When he’s possessed, he can’t be stopped.
• The Bears can’t ignore the rushing game for a third consecutive week, can they?  I think they’ll find themselves with an early lead in this game and run the ball between 25-30 times at least for better than 150 yards.
• The Panthers are registering touchbacks on half their kickoffs.  Robbie Gould is 11-14 on touchbacks.  That’s a rather significant statistic when you consider the weapons Chicago has in the return game, including Dave Toub making the calls.  Opponents won’t be able to keep the return units off the scoreboard all season.
• There are a few intangibles I think exist here.  (1) I think the Bears play their best football when they’ve been written off.  (2) They are even more dominant when they’ve been written off and face an inferior team.  (3) Anger.  I think there’s a lot of anger in that locker room right now, especially on the defensive end.  In 2005, the defense learned quickly they needed to dominate the line of scrimmage and win games on their own.  I think they start with that approach Sunday.

Chicago Bears 23, Carolina Panthers 6

Tony Gonzalez had 5 catches for 72 yards and was the lone bright spot for a dismal Atlanta Falcons team on opening day.  Jimmy Graham had 6 catches for 79 yards and it seemed every ball he caught was on a big spot third-and-long.  Jermichael Finley had 7 catches for 85 yards.  3 touchdowns.  While it is difficult to reach conclusions from the first three weeks of any NFL season, one thing is abundantly clear: the Bears are being dominated by opposing tight ends.

Why?

We know all the reasons.  The Tampa 2 leaves a giant hole in the middle of the field, patrolled only by Brian Urlacher it seems.  (He has done a brilliant job of that thus far in 2011.)  The Bears have been down to their third and fourth safeties at times as they face this crop so they’ve been unable to put a capable player in a man coverage situation.  And if you’re thinking they should line third corner D.J. Moore on Graham or Finley, think about how Moore’s 5’9″ would stack up against their 6’6″ and 6’5″ respectively.  You also need an accurate QB to make the tight end work against this system and Rodgers, Brees are two of the most accurate in the sport.

Enter Greg Olsen.  The Jersey-born, “U”-bred, first round draft pick of the Chicago Bears was unceremoniously shipped to Charlotte this offseason under the guise of “not fitting the Martz system.”  (One might wonder why the remainder of the skill players sans Matt Forte weren’t also shipped out.)  This won’t be Olsen’s first time contributing for the Panthers against the Bears, however.  In 2008 he fumbled the ball twice in a desperate attempt to help the Bears abandon their 17-3 lead.  They did so after a huge catch by tight end Jeff King in the fourth quarter put the Panthers in position for a one-yard TD run.  You could argue Olsen’s tenure with the Panthers started that afternoon.  His love affair with many Bears fans certainly ended.

Does Olsen have an axe to grind?  Who knows.  Will he be attempting to prove a point at Soldier Field?  Absolutely.  And head coach Ron Rivera will be pleased as punch to shove the Olsen decision down the throats of former bosses Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith.  With Peanut spending a majority of the afternoon (hopefully) tracking Steve Smith’s wherabouts, I’d expect the Panthers to use Olsen as Cam Newton’s primary target.  They’ll want the ball out of their rookie QB’s hands as quickly as possible.

The Bears should approach Olsen as what they know he is: a wide receiver.  If he is on the field he should be attended to by whichever of the starting corners is not on #89.  Failure to recognize Olsen as the second most viable receiving threat for the Panthers will only lead to another 5-10 catch, 75-100 yard, multiple TD effort from an opposing tight end.  Treating him like a starting wide receiving, like an elite receiving talent, wil force Cam and the Panthers to beat them by throwing the ball to Brandon LaFell and Legedu Naanee.

I’m much more comfortable with that.  Aren’t you?

Brad Biggs Slaughters Jerry Angelo’s Record on Offense

In his “Ten Thoughts” column this week Brad Biggs, normally not one to aggressively venture into column land, takes JA to task on the offense’s record during his tenure with the organization.  He writes:

So, I did a little research over the last 10 seasons of the Jerry Angelo era (four offensive coordinators) to see where the Bears stacked up. The No. 1 team from 2010 (San Diego) was assigned 1 point and the 32nd team from 2010 (Carolina) was assigned 32 points and so on. Every team in each of the past 10 seasons was assigned a point value dependent upon where it ranked in total yardage that season. The Bears finished 30th last season, their worst finish since ranking 32nd during the Terry Shea Experiment of 2004.

Then, I added up the point totals for each club. The team with the least number of points (Indianapolis 55) tops the list with the best offense. What did I find out? Since 2001, the Bears are tied with the Cleveland Browns for the worst offense in the NFL in terms of yardage based on assigning a point value for the finish of all clubs every season. They each totaled 265 points. Buffalo was next worst with 247.

Nothing shocking.  A million quarterbacks, a million coordinators, several years without quality linemen…etc.  It has been a poor offensive era in Chicago.  But I find it rather alarming that Lovie Smith has chosen three offensive coordinators during his tenure with the club and all three run entirely different offensive systems.  Clearly we have a head coach who doesn’t know what he wants to do on the offensive side of the ball outside of running the ball after exiting the bus.

Matt Bowen Attempts to “Fix” the Bears Offense

There is nothing groundbreaking in Bowen’s analysis of the broken offense but you won’t be surprised to find all five of his keys involve coaching decisions.  Here are the two I’m most in agreement with:

1. Change the run game: Martz wants to use his O-Line to pull on the Stretch G (front-side guard pull strong), the Counter OF (front-side guard pull weak), etc. Why not get back to basics, run the Lead Open, Lead Strong or the quick inside trap out of the one-back look? Matt Forte can hit the hole, get up field and produce. Win up front, put a body on the linebackers and play some physical football. Quick, downhill plays.

3. Align Hester inside of the numbers: This has been talked about since Martz arrived in Chicago, but why aren’t we seeing more of it? Think about this: Hester vs. a No.3 CB from the slot. With his lateral quickness, a two-way go (work both inside and outside release) and open field ability, there is no question I would have him working inside. Runthe option route, the seam and the 3-step game. That’s where he belongs in this system.

These are both no-brainers.  And yet they’re not being done.

Why You Should Sign Up For Twitter and Follow Me

So I was reluctant to join this Twitter thing but I have to admit I like it.  It is the only way to get up-to-the-minute Bears information from the writers covering the team and also commentary from myself, Bears players and Bears fans around the world.  Sign up and follow me by CLICKING HERE.

Picks Contest Update

Only FQD1911 registered a perfect Week Three.  A majority of you lost out with the Lions only managing a push.

Even while the kickoff return game has been negated significantly by moronic NFL rule changes, Dave Toub and Chicago Bears special teams continue to provide the fan base with excited on-field moments.

The “fake” punt return was a stroke of football genius.  A veritable Brazzers clip for football x’s and o’s nerds like myself.  The Packers agreed, with Aaron Rodgers calling it the greatest football play call he’d ever seen.

Listening to the B.S. Report podcast with Cousin Sal (a weekly must for the gambling sort), an interesting point was raised: Why run that play down ten points with a minute remaining in a game you’re going to lose?  There are two modes of thought on this:

1. You can never run this play again so why not use when it has the chance to truly influence the outcome of a contest without the need to subsequently execute an onside kick.
2. By running this play, the Bears have put it on film and now teams will have to spend time during the week preparing for it.  This will then make Devin Hester more lethal on returns.

After passing the the exhilaration of the experience, I think the play was completed wasted in a game that was over.  Where do you stand?

Step off the ledge, Bears fans.  Open the window, crawl back inside, go to the fridge, get yourself an adult beverage and sit down in your favorite comfy chair.  Take a sip.  Breathe.

After spending much of late yesterday afternoon and last night swelling with disappointment and Budweiser, something occurred to me this morning.  The Bears did not lose to the Saints and Packers because of the run/pass balance established by Mike Martz.  They did not lose those two games because of their failure to establish a short passing game or because of field position losses caused by the new kickoff rules or because they do not field a viable #1 receiver on the outside.  They lost to the Saints and Packers for the simplest of reasons: they’re not as good as the Saints or the Packers.

That doesn’t mean they’re not good.  It just means they’re not elite…in September.  Very few teams can create the defensive mismatches for the Bears the Saints and Pack created with Jimmy Graham and Jermichael Finley – both players torching linebackers and second-string safeties in space.  Very few opponents have coordinators as creative as Gregg Williams and Dom Capers – two defensive staples in the league for two decades.  There are many reasons a majority of preseason prognosticators had these two clubs as the odds on favorites to win the conference.  They’re terrific teams. Talented.  Seasoned.  Well-coached.

Forget Finley’s afternoon Sunday.  Craig Steltz can’t cover him under any circumstances ever.  Neither can Lance Briggs and the Reverend will tell you I called Finley’s touchdown catch against Briggs before the play was snapped.  (I’m sure some of you did as well.)  The frustrating thing about the Bears defense yesterday was they allowed the Packers to push them around in the run game, giving Aaron Rodgers manageable second and third downs all afternoon.  It is the perfect blue print to win on the road against the LoveRod and a great offense executed it like Super Bowl champions should.

But the Bears defense was heroic in the fourth quarter, creating two masterful turnovers and giving the Bears offense an opportunity to make a game of things.  (Anybody else think Urlacher is playing far better in pass coverage than as a run stopped through three games?)  Dave Toub pulled a rabbit from the special teams hat and showcased one of the great football plays of all time, a brilliant punt return deception that Greg Jennings called “the best play I’ve ever seen.” Unfortunately it was called back for a moronic Corey Graham hold nowhere near the play.  (Side note: Toub better get interviewed for the HC position when Lovie’s tenure is up.)  The Bears have the defense and specials to make the postseason.

The offense is the story and it’s a messy, messy tale.  If the Bears were an elite team they would have been able to match the Packers point-for-point for the entirety of the afternoon and the defense’s turnovers late would have been the difference.  That is how the Saints managed to beat the Texans in New Orleans, battling back from deficits in the first and fourth quarters, riding atop the shoulders have their elite QB.  But the Bears are not an elite team and this, the most difficult stretch of their season, laid the issues in black ink on the front page.  What must the Bears do to establish a run game?  What happened to the short passing game that embarrassed the Falcons defense?  How can they continue to get the ball into Kellen Davis’ hands?  Will the improvements shown yesterday on the offensive line continue?  Can the quarterback stop allowing his mechanics to falter as the pocket collapses around him?  I think it’s safe to say the Bears have no idea what they want to be on that side of the ball and it’s time the head coach make that decision.

The team is 1-2 while the Packers and Lions have jumped out to 3-0 starts.  Nervousness is rampant in the city of Chicago.  But now the schedule lightens.  Before they face a difficult stretch in November, the Bears are home to the stop-Steve Smith-and-win Panthers, at exciting-but-overrated Detroit on Monday night, home to the awful Vikings on Sunday night and in London to face Tampa.  They will have every opportunity over these next four games to get things right on the offensive side of the ball.  If they win all four, we know they’ll be contenders down the stretch.  If they win three, we’ll find ourselves scoreboard watching throughout the month of December.  If they split or worse, we’ll all start wondering who the next head coach of the Chicago Bears will be.

The first three games were a barometer for the 2011 season.  The Bears know they’re not among the NFL elite and they know why.  There are no mysteries surrounding this club as we enter the month of October, only questions.  Now we’ll see if this coaching staff has the answers.

Most of you will consider Sunday a doomsday scenario for the Chicago Bears.  You’re wrong.  Yes the Bears lost to the better team and the far better coaching staff but here’s the simple fact: the better group in September is rarely the better group in late December.  The Bears aren’t a bad team.  They are a flawed, mistake-riddled group.  Here are my quick hit thoughts:

• Don’t blame the “balance”.  The Bears could not run the ball against the Packers Sunday.  The passing game had plays to be made by the quarterback missed far too many open receivers and the receivers dropped far too many balls.  (I’d love to hear Coach Drake explain this one.)
• The Bears have to stop the run.  Giving a team as good as the Packers second-and-four every drive is a one way ticket to the loss column.
• On that note, stop complaining Johnny Knox.  If you want to be the #1…catch the ball.
• Nice job, Kellen Davis.
• Nice job overall, offensive line.  I can’t blame these guys if the Bears are going to live on the seven-step drops.
• And I was surprised Frank Omiyale played such a solid game.
• As for Mike Martz, I think it’s a lost cause.  The Bears are not going to be able to change coordinators mid-season and be productive enough to make a playoff push.  But how can this team not run any screen and quick tosses for three and a half quarters?  How can you not use Forte in the passing game until you’re desperate?
• Oh is Jermichael Finley good, Lovie?  Guess you don’t read this site but you can’t cover him at the fucking goal line with Lance Briggs.
• Jay Cutler needs to be smarter with the football.  I know what he expects his receivers to do but they are NOT going to do that so stop.
• Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Henry Melton, Julius Pepper…well done.
• I think the Roy Williams experiment is almost complete.
• Devin Hester used to catch deep balls from Kyle Orton.  Pretty regularly.  Why doesn’t he catch them from a QB with a far better arm?
• Someone has to step up opposite Peppers.
• Adam Podlesh has more leg, right?
• I don’t blame Mike Martz anymore.  You can’t expect a hungry lion to give a weak gazelle a blow job.  I can still get mad.  And Martz’ offense does not work with the skill players on this roster.  There is, however, a perfectly fine offense capable of being run and Martz must adapt to it by next Sunday or be unemployed.  And if Lovie Smith is not capable of making that change, he’ll be the defensive coordinator at Texas A&M next year.

All hope is not lost.  Far from it.  The Bears will beat Carolina next week and be 2-2.  But we need this team to improve in all facets before they face their next elite opponent.  The goal is winning a title.  Not winning a division.

A win today and you stabilize the entirety of the 2011 campaign.  A loss and the pressure continues to mount as you stare down a date with Cam Newton next week.

Win.  Bear down.

The tradition failed us a week ago.  We try something  a little new.