I turned to my brother at halftime of yesterday’s ballgame and said, “If the Bears don’t win this game by three scores, I quit on Lovie Smith.”  They won by three scores.  I’m still sweet on ya, Lovie.  Here are my thoughts…

• Game balls to Dave Toub, Brad Maynard, Robbie Gould, Earl Bennett, Johnny Knox and the entirety of our special teams.  Did the Bears start any drives in their own territory in the second half?  Did the Lions start a drive outside their own twenty?
• There is no game this season I’ll think the Bears are out of. The reason is Jay Cutler.  That’s why we could have given up a decade’s worth of first round draft picks.  As for the touchdown run…that’s enough of that.
• Lance Briggs can say whatever he wants but he’s turned his game up a notch since Brian Urlacher went down.  Nobody’s played linebacker like this in Chicago in a long time.
• Mark Anderson?  Tommie Harris?  We have to credit Rod Marinelli for this, right?
• Another game, another injury.  Let’s hope Devin Hester isn’t seriously hurt.
• If they re-held the draft today, I think Johnny Knox goes at the end of the first round.  As unique a talent as Devin Hester is, how did we find another one?
• My gut tells me that Zack Bowman isn’t comfortable sitting back in Lovie’s coverage scheme and would much rather be attacking the football on every throw. 
• Really like the game that Ron Turner called yesterday and for the past three weeks.  Cutler’s a brilliant talent but Ronny has harnessed that talent brilliantly.
• He won’t get a lot of press but I think Chris Williams played a hell of a ballgame.  He’s a giant.
• How much would you pay for video from the locker room at halftime?
• Adewale Ogunleye is going to make himself a lot of money.
• I’ve never played offensive tackle.  On television, blocking Alex Brown looks comparable to standing in the middle of the New Jersey Turnpike at 6:00 pm on a Friday afternoon in the summertime. 
• If the Bears want to win the Super Bowl, they’re going to need to cover wide receivers.
• Jason McKie’s total carries this season is on-point.  Zero.
• Jay Cutler.  Seven touchdowns, one interception since opening night.
• All that matters is 3-1.  

Brad Biggs reports that Desmond Clark has made a terrific recovery and may play Sunday. I think he shouldn’t.  Take the extra two weeks to rehabilitate the ribs and come back flying in the wherever-the-Falcons-play.

Hunter Hillenmeyer and Pisa Tinoisamoa are highly doubtful for the Lions.  This means the starting corps of Briggs-Urlacher-Tinoisamoa will be Briggs-Roach-Williams this week.  Some would say thank God it’s the Lions but I don’t and I know the Bears don’t.  We’ve been hearing about Roach and Williams for two years and I’m excited to see what these two guys can do for sixty minutes, especially Williams.

ProFootballTalk reports that Kevin Smith practiced (limited) and may play against the Bears.  The only way the Lions can steal this ballgame on the road is if they find a way to dominate with the ground game against our inexperience at linebacker.

As for the picks, I apologize for another 1-2 week (3-5 overall).  The odd thing is that I’m at about 67% with my overall selections and sending all my crap picks your way.  Recovery.  This weekend.

Cincinnati -6 at CLEVELAND. The Bengals should be 3-0, if not for the flukiest fluke play in a hundred years.  They’re solid defensively and developing a rapport in the passing game, with Carson Palmer slowly adding Coles and Caldwell to the arsenal.  The Browns have the worst coach in football and a disgruntled fan base that will make this feel like a road game. 

Tampa bay +7 at WASHINGTON.  Don’t sleep on Josh Johnson.  He may not look like much more than a MAC quarterback but he’s accurate underneath and will keep the Bucs in this game.  The Redskins should never have lost to the Lions but their short-yardage running was atrocious and Jason Campbell simply misses too many open receivers in the flat.  Take the points and don’t watch the game unless you’re paid to.

Dallas -3 at DENVER.  Some teams are just hard to believe in and the Denver Broncos are the team this year.  They beat the Bengals on a flukey flukerton and managed to hold down the two of the league’s worst.  Dallas will have a skizophrenic season but I don’t imagine them skydiving from contention until, well, when they always do.  December.  Dallas big. 

The next 24 hours will be crazy for yours truly so I hope the debate rages until early Friday morning – when I’ll have the Friday picks and some additional material.

Reason says…

Treason says…

The
Lions have no shot at beating the Bears this weekend.  And for that
statement alone, that reason, the Lions have everything in their favor heading
into Sunday.  After all, if the Lions lose at Soldier Field, who gives a
shit, right?  But if they win, if…they…win, the world will simply
come undone.  Make no mistake, the Lions aren’t very good, but ALL of the
pressure is on the Bears.

Historically,
the Bears are 89-65-5 (.582) against the Lions.  However, the average
margin of victory has only been two points (19-17).  I expect another
close game for the following reasons:

Neither
team can run the football well.  So far, Matt Forte is averaging 2.5
yards per carry in his first 150 attempts.  He seems almost useless unless
he’s catching passes out of the backfield (and he’s hardly being
targeted).  Kevin Smith looks like he’s out, which means Maurice Morris
will start.  With Forte playing the way he is, the Lions will focus on
stopping the pass.  This strategy is a luxury that wasn’t afforded to them
in their two losses–they focused on stopping the Saints passing game and got
burned by the rush (Mike Bell: 28 carries, 143 yards); they focused on stopping
the Vikings rushing game (Adrian Peterson) and got burned by the pass (Favre:
23-27, 2 TD, 0 INT).  The Lions aren’t good enough to stop a balanced
attack.  But if they focus on stopping the pass, and Forte fails to take
advantage on the ground, this might be a nail-biter.

Lions
feature big receivers/Calvin Johnson can’t be stopped.  This weak
Bears secondary has already been burned in three straight weeks: Greg Jennings
(6 catches, 106 yards), Santonio Holmes (5 catches, 83 yards–several drops,
including a sure TD), and Nate Burleson (9 catches, 109 yards).  Johnson,
who is 6-foot-5, is four inches taller than every Bears corner, safety and
linebacker (except for Hunter Hillenmeyer).  Across from him is 6-foot-3
Bryant Johnson.  Tight end Brandon Pettigrew is 6-foot-5.  This
height advantage will be something to watch.

Momentum. 
Yeah, I know it’s only one win.  But it’s one win after 19-straight
losses.  You don’t think these guys are pumped up?

Final
Thoughts:  The Bears take the Lions too lightly and make some costly
turnovers (one results in a defensive TD).  Calvin Johnson has a monster
day.  Forte shits the bed again.  Cutler feuds with Lovie
Smith.  Hanson kicks a game-winner.  Soldier Field mourns.

Detroit Lions 23, Chicago Bears 21

Since Mike Ditka left the Chicago sideline, the Bears have started a season 3-1 only twice in seventeen years.  Hide the key to both the whiskey and shotgun cabinets and say that out loud.  Twice.  In seventeen years.   

Only two other teams during that period made the post-season.  The 1994 Bears, under the worst coach in football history, backed into the playoffs by losing three of their last four and shocked the world by beating the Minnesota Vikings in a Wildcard debacle that featured about three hundred turnovers.  (They were subsequently embarrassed 44-15 in San Francisco.)  The 2005 division champions were the football anomaly of the decade, winning eight straight mid-season games while only scoring more than twenty points once during that span.         

This is one of the reasons I agree with Steve Rosenbloom writing that Sunday’s game against the Lions is a must-win.  “But Jeff, you called last week a must-win!”  I certainly did.  I’m a believer in the Vegas odds and if your team has a minus sign next to its name on the sheet, your team is supposed to win.  When the number next to that minus sign is double-digits (the Bears are 10 point favorites), you must win.  No question about it.  If the Bears lose to the Lions at home, they’ll find themselves chasing two games in the standings at the end of the first quarter.  They’ll be chasing those two games from the bottom of the division.

They need to be ruthless on Sunday.  Dominant.  They need to block it well, run it well, throw it well.  They need to welcome Matthew Stafford to a career of losing in Soldier Field.  They need to put on one of those shows that ends with fifteen minutes of Caleb Hanie.  Because while history tells us that while 3-1 doesn’t put a shiny ring on 53 fingers, it does mean important football in January.  That’s all we can ask for.  

Rick Morrissey Has Become Unreadable
Rick Morrissey wrote, just two weeks ago, that someone needed to tell Jay Cutler to “wise up”.  It was an idiotic, knee-jerk response to one ball game and the ensuing press conference.  Now, after two wonderful performances from the future Chicago steakhouse owner, Morrissey isn’t saying he was wrong.  He’s saying…he was right.  He now believes someone told Cutler to wise up and that is why he’s eclipsed the 100 quarterback rating twice and led the Bears on back-to-back game-winning drives.  That’s why he’s thrown five touchdowns to one interception.  The man who wrote that Cutler’s “poor decision-making and the recklessness were nothing new” is now comparing him to Tom Brady.  Rick Morrissey has pulled comparisons to Jay Mariotti but Mariotti – while incorrect and disagreeable often – was never this desperate.

Rod Marinelli…I Like When He Talks
Brad Biggs has a terrific interview with Hot Rod, whose impact on the defensive line has been borderline miraculous.  Brown, Ogunleye and Adams look like forces and Tommie Harris has played better each week.  Best quote:

“It’s like I teach them, if you have a sack, let it go. How
many times do you see back-to-back sacks? You don’t because the guy is
celebrating and all that, and then you lose that focus for that play.
It’s just like a bad play. You have to learn from the experience, learn
how to improve from it and now go. It’s hard to do.

“I teach it, I teach it and I teach it. You just have to clean your
mind and go play. As soon as something else is on that mind, you don’t
play fast and you don’t live fast. I live fast. I don’t drag any
baggage with me. My bags are gone. I take them off and go. Drop the
rocks and run. This stuff is too much fun.”

Nothing upsets me more than the rampant celebration that goes on among defenders, especially ours.  Leave that shit to Chad Greenway, Jared Allen and the Vikings – by far the worst perpetrators of this crime in the sport.    

The Chicago media’s love affair with Johnny Knox was doomed from the start, though his seven-yard touchdown catch on Sunday illustrated the combination of speed and toughness that are quickly becoming his trademarks.  This week’s cover girl is linebacker Nick Roach, whom Dan Pompei has fallen for in the Trib.  Lovie Smith added his impression:

Nick has a lot of quickness. He can get off blocks and get off them
well. He’s a good rusher, and he’s good at pass coverage. All the
things we ask our linebackers to do, Nick does a good job of.

With Hunter Hillenmeyer almost certainly out this week against Detroit, Roach will make a start at the most celebrated position in the history of one of the sport’s most celebrated franchises.  He’ll do so at Soldier Field, in front of 61,500 folks more-than-willing to change the 4 on the back of their jerseys to a 3.

That is what’s at stake for Nick Roach this Sunday and moving forward.  The Bears know that while Hunter Hillenmeyer provides veteran stability in the middle, he lacks explosiveness.  Roach lacks for nothing, physically, and we can assume the Northwestern degree denotes a working machine between the ears.  There’s no reason to debate his ability to produce.  He has the chance now, starting against the Detroit Lions.  If he wants the job, it’s his.  And he only need to watch this video to know what this rivalry meant to the greatest who ever played the position.