In my 15 years as a Bears fan, I have seen the Chicago Bears sweep the Green Bay Packers once.

One single season. Across Fifteen years.

Since Aaron Rodgers took over at Quarterback, Green Bay has consistently throttled Chicago — the Packers have won a staggering 26 out of 31 contests and have left the Bears with a lower win percentage vs Green Bay in that span (16.12%) than Chicago finished with in a last-place 2022 season (17.65%).

As a matter of fact, Chicago enters this weekend’s game with two concurrent losing streaks against the Green Bay Packers:

• The Bears are 0-8 in their last 8 games against Green Bay
• The Bears are also 0-8 in their last 8 September matchups against the Packers

Thus, if you’ve ever felt like Chicago simply couldn’t beat Aaron Rodgers, you were right.

But Chicago doesn’t face Aaron Rodgers this weekend.

After more than a decade of dominance, a new face now leads Green Bay. Jordan Love has taken the reigns at Quarterback, and he brings with him a wildly young offensive skill core with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

There are virtually no expectations for this Packers team, save that the young guns develop on offense, but that’s not to say they’re without talent — with high-pedigree draft picks like Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave, and Jayden Reed, the 2023 Packers are a dangerous team. But, as of the time of writing this article, they’re also as weak as they’re likely to be this year.

The Packers’ starting CB2, Eric Stokes, will open the 2023 season on the PUP list. Tyler Davis, GB’s veteran TE3, will start the season on IR and force rookie Luke Musgrave into a starting role early.

2nd year possession receiver Romeo Doubs tweaked his hamstring and missed the Packers’ final preseason game. Star EDGE rusher Rashan Gary tore his ACL in 2022’s Week 9 and, though he’s slated to play in Week 1, will assuredly lack some measure of explosion for at least a few more months.

This Packers team is young, untested, and banged up. If Chicago can’t beat them now, when will they?

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With the Chicago Bears’ 53-man roster set for Sunday’s Bears-Packers game, it’s finally time we talk through 2023 Season Predictions — on the latest episode of the Bear With Us podcast, that’s exactly what Nick and I do.

In a Monday morning mega-show, Nick and I talk through every Bears 2023 topic possible in lieu of this weekend’s season kickoff:

• What will Chicago’s overall record be?
• Which games will Chicago win? Which games will they lose?
• Where in the Bears’ schedule are there natural rest advantages over opponents? Are there any disadvantages to watch for?
• What should we expect from Fields in 2023? And what constitutes a “good” season from him?
• Who do we have our eyes on defensively?
• What would be a good year for Eberflus’ 2023 defense?
• And much, much more…

Start your week right with the latest episode of Bear With Us — now available in both video & audio forms. Give it a listen/watch and let me know what you think!

Podcast Form:

Note: Video Form is available after the ‘jump’

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Chicago Bears waiver wire madness is over, and with the dust officially settled their initial 53-man roster is complete!

The Bears managed to add 4 new faces to the roster through trades, signings, and waiver claims:

• OL Dan Feeney
• WR/PR Trent Taylor
• DE Khalid Kareem
• DB Quindell Johson

But what do these four bring to the roster that the 90-man roster didn’t already have? What does the ultimate shape of the roster tell us about the Bears’ plans for 2023? And how on earth did Velus Jones Jr. keep his job?

Nick and I break down all this and more on the latest episode of Bear With Us — now available in both video & audio forms. Give it a listen/watch and let me know what you think!

Podcast Form:

Note: Video Form is available after the ‘jump’

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Justin Fields played 13 snaps in a preseason game, and because his offense had the nerve to look rusty many on social media, of course, went haywire.

With that in mind, let’s break down all 13 of his snaps — in this video, you’ll see:

• Improved post-snap process
• The most vanilla passing calls you’ll find
• Physical mistakes throwing the ball
• Much, much more

Check it out and let me know what you think!

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Postgame Podcast:

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Happy Friday everyone! As we head into the Bears’ final preseason game, I want talk about the way we talk about Gervon Dexter Sr — many fans are way, way too fixated on his get-off, and I believeit’s a molehill that’s become a mountain.

Here’s Dexter’s first 10 snaps from the Colts game where I’ve put the moment of the snap in slow-motion — Dexter is never once the last man off the ball, and he even gets off the line first on a few plays. Yet despite Dexter getting off the line well, his play-to-play impact was still too inconsistent throughout this reel — why? Put simply, there are other growth areas within Dexter’s game that are much more important for his future success than simply firing off the ball quickly.

We are way, way too fixated on Gervon Dexter's get-off — it's a molehill that's become a mountain.

Here's Dexter's first 10 snaps from the Colts game where I've slowed the moment of the snap down — he's never once last off the ball, he's even first off in a few plays. It's a… pic.twitter.com/xFsojSeRKJ

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) August 24, 2023

Dexter’s pad level & hand usage need to improve, and I’d like to see him apply & maintain his natural power within each step he takes. Dexter has a bad habit of standing up straight after he & his OL initially make contact and currently it’s hurting his ability to remain powerful as a play progresses.

He’s also clearly raw in his hand-placement, especially as a pass-rusher, but in the reel above we see good news in regards to his improvement — He’s clearly working on new pass-rush moves, including a cross-chop that you only see explosive 3Ts attempt to pull off. Perfecting rush moves takes time, but by mid-season I would hope that he’s found a groove with a go-to rush and can contribute in his rotational reps.

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As we head into the final Chicago Bears’ preseason weekend, it’s about time we start talking through which Bears will survive next Tuesday’s cut-down.

Below I attempted to predict the Bears’ 53-man roster (before any waiver claims) — I surprised myself with some of the decisions I made, but take a look at the list first before reading the justifications of my heinous decisions. My notes are at the bottom.

Offense:

QB: Justin Fields, PJ Walker, Tyson Bagent
FB: Khari Blasingame
RB: Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer
TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis
OL: Braxton Jones, Tevin Jenkins, Cody Whitehair, Nate Davis, Darnell Wright, Lucas Patrick, Ja’Tyre Carter, Larry Borom, Alex Leatherwood
WR: D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Tyler Scott, Equanimeous St. Brown, Velus Jones Jr

Defense:

EDGE: Demarcus Walker, Yannick Ngakoue, Dominique Robinson, Terrell Lewis, Trevis Gipson
DT: Justin Jones, Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter Sr, Zacch Pickens
LB: Tremaine Edmunds, TJ Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, Micah Baskerville, Dylan Cole
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Jaylon Jones
NCB: Kyler Gordon, Josh Blackwell
SAF: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Elijah Hicks, A.J. Thomas

Special Teams:

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In doing research for an upcoming project, I stumbled upon an interesting set of correlations within Fields’ rushing data — as you may know, Justin Fields led the NFL in 2022 with 7.1 Yards/Rush, the best figure of any player since 2014 (assuming a minimum of 100 carries).

That 2014 leader was Russell Wilson, who led the league with 7.2 Yards/Rush. But it’s what Wilson did in the season after 2014 that we care about — in 2015, Russ threw for his first 4,000 yard passing season and never stepped back after doing so.

Wilson’s production (specifically Touchdowns, Y/A, and Total Passing Yards) improved in 2015 because defenses couldn’t allow Russ to run freely and thus sacrificed defenders in coverage to cover him, and obviously we’d love to see the same from Justin Fields in 2023. But, interestingly enough, Wilson’s sack rate remained one of the worst in the league even as he took that 2015 step forward.

Russ was always one to take plenty of sacks, including a 2nd-year season where he recorded a 9.8% sack rate, but seeing his 2014 sack rate (8.5%) repeat in his 2015 season (8.5% sack rate) is a reminder that even if Fields takes a step forward as a passer he’ll continue to take an inordinate amount of sacks compared to his peers. That said, if Fields throws for 4,000+ yards and 34 TDs? I don’t know how much anyone will complain about 45-50 sacks.

But Russell Wilson is just one name — across the league, how successful are QBs that run well?

Surprisingly, the list of NFL QBs that have led the league in Yards/Rush is a list filled with talent:

• Josh Allen (2021)
• Lamar Jackson (2019, 2020)
• Russell Wilson (2014)
• Robert Griffin III (2012)
• Cam Newton (2011)
• Michael Vick (2002, 2004, 2006, 2010)
• Randall Cunningham (1990)

Of this list, only Randall Cunningham (1990) and Michael Vick (2004 & 2006) topped Fields Yards/Rush figure of 7.1 Y/R.

Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but if a QB leads the NFL in this category and stays healthy long-term they historically tend to be good players. Just how good you think the list’s QBs are depends on your perspective on players like Cam Newton (lack of longevity), Lamar Jackson (passed for 3,000+ yards exactly once, though BAL hasn’t helped him), and Michael Vick (never passed for 3,000+ yards in Atlanta), but for a city like Chicago that’s been starved of serviceable QB play for years I’d take the floor that comparisons like Cam Newton impart if it gives me a chance at a ceiling like Josh Allen or Russell Wilson.

With DJ Moore, OL upgrades, a renewed Chase Claypool, boosts at TE, and a second year in the offense, who knows? Maybe Justin Fields’ “Russell Wilson 2015” season is just around the corner. We’ll have to wait and see.

Justin Fields scored THREE times from 50+ yards on the ground in 2022, which no other QB has done in their *total career*.

That doesn't count the 53-yd TD @ MIN that got called back, nor his 60-yd scramble @ DET.

I get "QB rushing is unsustainable", but Fields is different. pic.twitter.com/dmKlMyBzeU

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) May 29, 2023

Your Turn: Do you see Justin Fields as more Russell Wilson or Michael Vick?

For the first time in the Matt Eberflus era, Bears fans were forced to swallow the bitter pill of preseason defeat as Chicago fell to Indianapolis 17-24 over the weekend. The tilt saw both teams rest nearly all of their starters and many of their reserves, but a loss is a loss — with something like that hanging over fans’ heads, it’s a miracle that anyone loyal to the team made it into work today.

But setting aside the sting of defeat, what did we learn about the roster this weekend? I dove into the game’s All-22 tape and went spelunking — here’s what I found:

Guarding our Hearts:

Ja’Tyre Carter picked a great weekend to have another great weekend — with reports that Tevin Jenkins has suffered a leg injury that may shelve him for up to 6 weeks, quality OL depth looks more valuable than ever.

Carter’s form looks great in pass protection, but he’s making his hay as a run blocker and looks forceful as he does — below is a great example of Carter’s handiwork, and as Lucas Patrick continues to miss time in Training Camp I’m curious to see which young lineman the Bears turn to as the next LG.

#Bears Ja'Tyre Carter run blocks like he's got a personal problem with the defense, I love it pic.twitter.com/Ba0khwFQtz

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) August 21, 2023

Dropping Anchor:

Zacch Pickens took a healthy step forward in his second NFL exhibition, but he did so in a way I didn’t see coming — I expected to see him utilize his length & first step to pressure the passer and knife into run gaps, but instead he dropped anchor twice on the goal line and stood up Colts double-teams on both sides of the defensive line. As the primary backup for Andrew Billings, Pickens couldn’tve shown off a more encouraging skill.

Click the clip below to see his 2nd rep in the replies — it’s impressive stuff from a rookie known to struggle doing exactly this in college. I’d like to see him win a few more reps in run defense this weekend before making any sweeping declarations, but in the meantime it’s nice to see the Bears helping their rookies hone key skills.

https://twitter.com/robertkschmitz/status/1693445818810781794

Breaking Down Bagent:

Tyson Bagent will be the subject for tomorrow’s (tonight’s) Dissecting a Drive, so I won’t go into too much detail here.

That said, I put together a quick breakdown on one of my favorite of Bagent’s throws — a simple quick screen that, upon further inspection, I think Tyson audibled into. Turn your sound on for this one:

Tyson Bagent made plenty of plays on his 17-play TD drive, but this quick screen to Dante Pettis stands out — if you look closely, you'll see that Bagent audibled into this after seeing the Colts show a CB Blitz.

I LOVE that the #Bears UDFA rookie is confident enough to make… pic.twitter.com/zPUBXqS1nk

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) August 21, 2023

Also, given that the Bears’ QB2 looked like this on Saturday Night, Tyson’s calm demeanor couldn’tve been a more welcome sight. He’s a very fun young player to watch.

Here's All-22 of every PJ Walker pass/dropback from last night's #Bears game.

Honest take: There aren't many plays to be made on his snaps. He doesn't do himself favors w/ the sacks & the early stumble, but these snaps aren't much to analyze.

Stick with your eval from CAR tape pic.twitter.com/MIiSUdHgRi

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) August 21, 2023

I’ll update this article throughout the day, so stay tuned!

Your Turn: What stuck out to you during Saturday Night’s game?