Right after the NFL draft is always a dangerous time to be optimistic because everybody is (except Browns fans). But there is reason to feel positive about the Bears right now and that is because they have guys who have done this before.

I didn’t like the Leonard Floyd pick. In general, I don’t like skinny football players. I didn’t have him in my Bears Big Board because I didn’t think he fit the physical profile for either John Fox or Vic Fangio, both previously preferring bulkier pass-rushers. But Fox has been around for “a minute,” as he says, and he knows what good pass rushers look like. If he signs off on Floyd, who am I to argue?

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In the third round the Bears picked one of the most athletic defensive linemen in the draft in Bullard.

According to Mock Draftable, Bullard’s most comparable current NFL player is Sheldon Richardson. He fits the physical profiles they look for at 6’3″, 285 pounds, running the 40-yard dash in under five seconds and a 10-yard split of 1.65 seconds, among the best at his position in the draft.  Oh, and his arms are nearly 34 inches long.

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Shit happened since the last Mock Mock draft, huh? The first two picks were traded, the third and fourth picks are huge question marks and the previous consensus top pick could plummet. Oh, and the top linebacker supposedly has a bum knee that will prevent him from having a long career. Shit definitely happened.

The Rams and Eagles made big moves for quarterbacks who definitely aren’t consensus top picks. Hell, one of them was thought of as a late-round sleeper last December. That caused a huge shakeup in the top 10 picks, but probably doesn’t effect the Bears pick too much.

The final Mock Mock Draft is going to have some pretty big changes from last time. At least, I think it will, I don’t even remember who I had going where. Shit, I don’t even remember who I had the Bears picking.

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All the homework is done and the Bears are just left waiting to see who is there for them to pick. By now, they have a list of players they think might be available and have them ranked on their board, but nobody has access to that list outside of John Fox and Ryan Pace. So, here’s my best guess.

First, a few things I considered:

• The best player available thing is just GM talk. They look at positions of need and this list will reflect that.

• I won’t pretend to be a scout, so my “scouting reports” are based heavily on things actual scouts (current and former) have said. I do a ton of research on the draft prospects and put more weight on what those who do the job for a living say than the guy with 1,563 Twitter followers.

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You know Noah Spence’s story. He was a five star recruit, kicked out of the Big 10 because of two failed drug tests for ecstasy. He went on to Eastern Kentucky, had a productive year and made people drool as he ran around bad tackle prospects at the Senior Bowl. That was right around the time of the Super Bowl and everyone suddenly wanted Spence to be Von Miller. Here’s the thing: He isn’t Von Miller and isn’t close as a prospect.

I’ll get to the red flags later.

Spence has very real physical flaws that make me think he’d struggle even if he did stay clean. The best pass-rushers in the league are either long or athletic. Spence isn’t either. It isn’t just about his 40-yard dash time. He didn’t show particularly good agility or explosiveness.

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Here we go again. My first mock mock draft came before free agency started, which means there have been a ton of changes, especially at the top of the draft and with the Bears.

What I don’t have is changes at the very top. I think the Titans and Browns are pretty much locked into who they are going to take and both picks make a lot of sense. After that, however, it’s anyone’s guess.

By now, the Bears are likely keying in on a handful of players they either want to take at 11 or will try to trade back. I did a “big board” a couple weeks ago, but this is very fluid. If I did that again, there would be several changes.

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The Bears almost certainly have their own big board made up and, while we have no idea who is on it or where they land, this is my best guess.

First, a few things I considered:

• Every GM says they’ll take the best player available and I’m sure they intend to do just that. But in their ideal world the best player available would also fill a need. So, yes, need was a priority.

• I don’t pretend to be a scout, so most of these ranks are based on consensus combined with what I know about what the Bears prefer.

• The Bears prefer players with long arms. Look at pretty much every player they have brought in. Arm length is a big deal to them. Players who might be rated highly, but would have to be exceptions for the Bears include Shaq Lawson and Vernon Hargreaves. Maybe they’d make an exception for either of those players but I’m not betting on it.

• Ryan Pace always talks about explosive playmakers, so I gave preference to guys who either hurt the other team’s quarterback or help the Bears.

• I hate when people say he’s not going to be there but, for the purpose of this, I eliminated players who pretty much everyone thinks will be picked before the Bears are on the clock. They include: Laremy Tunsil, Joey Bosa, Myles Jack and Jalen Ramsey.

Without further adieu…

Bears Big Board

1. DeForest Buckner, DL, Oregon. There isn’t a more perfect fit for what the Bears need and want right now. He’d give them three good defensive linemen who can stop the run and provide at least some pass rush.

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Right up until it was reported Malik Jackson was signing with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Bears were considered a favorite to sign the former Bronco. But the Bears were right. At $15 million person for the man widely regarded as the top free agent on the market, the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze.

Don’t get me wrong, Jackson is among the very best in the league at what he does. Turn on the AFC Championship Game and you’ll see why he got paid. So much of the focus was on Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware but the Patriots felt the need to double Jackson on nearly every passing play. When they didn’t, he pushed the guard back into Brady. It was a dominating performance.

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The Bears have needs. Many needs. So I’ve decided to apply a point value to those needs. 0 points would mean the Bears have absolutely no need to address this position during free agency. 10 points would mean the Bears are in trouble come 2016 if they don’t make a significant move. Here are the rankings, with a single sentence of rationale for each.

9.2 Defensive Line

Yes, Eddie Goldman looked like a long-term contributor for the Bears up front, but this unit was the least explosive on the entirety of the roster in 2015.

8.3 Inside Linebacker

McClellin, Timu and Anderson each had moments last season but the Bears need a true run-stuffing thumper in the middle of their defense.

8.1 Offensive Line

With so much talent available in the middle of the line (Mack, Boone, Incognito) the Bears would be doing their run game in 2016 a tremendous disservice by entering the season with so many question marks along the line.

8.0 Tight End

If Martellus Bennett is truly headed out the door (as the whole world is reporting) the Bears not only need to sign Zach Miller but also pair him with another player to threaten the middle of the field.

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Mock drafts are a mostly useless practice, but people like them and they’re fun to do. So here is my first attempt at a 2016 mock draft. Keep a few things in mind:

• I’m not a scout. I don’t pretend to be a scout. I’ll never pretend to be a scout. But I do read a lot and listen to a lot of scouts. I have about five people whose opinions I trust more than others. I typically lean toward people who were once in the league.

• Don’t say anyone “won’t” go anywhere. Nobody knows who is going where. Even if a team directly came out and said who they were going to take, we couldn’t believe it because they lie more times than not.

• In a First Draft Podcast with Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, Adam Schefter was adamant that three quarterbacks were going in the top 10. I’ve never heard Schefty more certain of anything so I believe him.

• A lot of these are going to be wrong. Of course they are, we haven’t even hit free agency yet. Even after free agency, mock drafts are going to be wrong. But, here goes…

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