Sports gambling was always going to happen in the United States. And now that the Supreme Court decision has come down, sports radio airwaves have been lit up with takes ranging from willfully naive to pointlessly puritanical. As someone who has illegally gambled for the last twenty years, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about the issue. Here’s some of that thinking.

• Chris Christie is a scumbag but he deserves a lot of credit for this decision. As governor of NJ he understood the only way to beat the lobbying powers of the major sports leagues was to sink taxpayer money into the legal fight. He did. And now the great state of New Jersey is going to be the first to reap the windfall when a sportsbook opens at Monmouth in the coming weeks.
• Most people know sports gambling, especially when it comes to football, as full game point spreads and over/unders. What a full sports book does is open up hundreds upon hundreds of bets per game. The barroom bookie doesn’t take action on first touchdown scored or third quarter first downs or catches by the backup tight end. (They take almost no action at all on golf, NASCAR…etc.) The active sports books around the country will take this action and the most creative ones will make the most money.
• This will all be done digitally, of course. That’s where the most money will be made. But I’d imagine you’ll see some storefront sports books, especially in major cities. Think of the old ESPN Zones – a million TVs, seven bars…etc. But now everyone in the joint will be able to walk over to a teller and place bets.
• I’ll be shocked if this leads to some epidemic of gambling addicts. Anyone who wants to gamble for the sake of gambling can do so right now. What do people think DraftKings and FanDuel are? There are race tracks all over the country. Scratch-offs and the lottery are gambling for dimwits. Are there scratch-off addicts? I’m sure. But nobody ever writes a newspaper article about them. There are betting parlors in every mid-sized Irish village. They’re surviving just fine.

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Mitchell Trubisky (right) sneaks into Bears rookie camp for a quick glimpse. pic.twitter.com/ehdd54Wzs7

— Mark Grote (@markgrotesports) May 12, 2018

Two thoughts on this:

• This might feel like a slight gesture but it’s not. For the rookies in this camp, many desperate to make ANY roster, seeing the starting quarterback out there inspires them. It shows them this is not only important to them but important to the entire franchise. And it makes them work that much harder.
• It’s a brilliant move by Mitch as this becomes HIS team. Every rookie at this camp will notice him. Every rookie that moves along with the Bears will remember his presence. Leadership is important, especially at the quarterback position. This is leader stuff.

The top three results before free agency (and the combine) were: 8-8 (33.8%), 9-7 (33.1%), 6-7 wins (19.48%).

The top three results after free agency were 8-8 (40.37%), 9-7 (35.3%), 10 wins or more (11.83%). Fans are clearly trending positive.

He’s bored. He’s currently unemployed (but not for long). So I asked my buddy, who was formerly the head pro personnel man for an NFL franchise, to break down the Bears roster. Here it is.

Quarterback: “Our college guys loved Trubisky. What he put on tape last year was unimpressive but if he can’t succeed with that staff and the talent they’ve acquired, it’s going to be on him.”

Running Back: “The strength of the roster.”

Receivers & Tight Ends: “As individuals, they are all talented. But that group has to play like a group. They have to be unselfish. They have to work hard for each other. And it’ll be interesting to see if Nagy can get those new boys, some making A LOT of money, to do that.”

Offensive Line: “I question the tackles, on the right side more than the left, and really only in the passing game. But Nagy and Helfrich are going to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand much quicker than last season and those guys can hold up for 2-3 seconds. Underrated group.”

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On this episode:

• (0:17) Introductory remarks from Jeff
• (2:27) Jeff joins Trent & Ken on 1700 Des Moines to discuss the highlights of the Bears draft and expectations for the 2018 campaign.
• (11:21) Scott Wright of DraftCountdown.com breaks down the haul, with a focus on UDFAs from Dubuque, Notre Dame and LSU.
• (27:42) A classic sermon from Reverend Dave on…who the hell knows?
• Music from Chicago’s own Alan Gresik and modern jazz genius Cyrille Aimee.

An NFL franchise does not begin the process of rebuilding until they find their quarterback. They can change coaches and front office personnel. They can turn over their roster; get younger, quicker, more athletic. But until they find the man who will play the most important position in all of sports, they can’t pretend what they are building is a team capable of contending consistently, year in, year out.

Ryan Pace has his quarterback. And he treated the 2018 NFL Draft differently because of it. No longer was the young GM looking for freakish athleticism and under-performing college guys with upside. No longer was he willing to bypass win-now needs for the myth of “best player available”. All but one of the seven players selected by Pace and his staff over three days in Dallas fit a clear and distinct need for this franchise now, today, for the 2018 campaign.

Roquan Smith, James Daniels and Anthony Miller will be in starting roles against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night, September 9th. If they’re not, it’s a problem.

The Bears needed a rotational defensive end, edge rusher and more receiving help. They drafted Bilal Nichols, Kylie Fitts and Javon Wims respectively. None of these three are guaranteed contributors – nobody on day three is – but that doesn’t mean the Bears didn’t draft them to be. There are no developmental prospects in this group. These guys are going to be asked to play the positions they played well in college at the next level.

The outlier of the class is Joel Iyegbuniwe – an inside linebacker who will have a difficult time getting on the field this coming season, outside of special teams. But if the correlating move involves Nick Kwiatkoski moving out to the edge – a position of need – then it fits comfortably into this new draft narrative for Pace.

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Come back Monday morning to read big-picture analysis of the front office’s approach to these three days. For now, here are the newest members of the Chicago Bears with a quick blurb from yours truly.

Round 1 – Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

Honestly, ten years from now, fans should be debating where Smith ranks among the great middle linebackers in Bears history. That’s what an organization should expect when drafting a player at this position this high. Ryan Pace needs this to be Roquan’s defense for the next decade plus.

Round 2 – James Daniels, C/G, Iowa

Immediate starter. The Bears now have one of the league’s best interior o-lines (Daniels-Whitehair-Long) and one of the league’s three finest offensive line coaches. If he stays healthy, Jordan Howard may find himself in the MVP conversation this season.

Round 2 – Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis

A text from a friend in the league: “He was the highest wide receiver on our board.” The Bears gave up a lot to get Miller and will put a lot on his shoulders quickly. Expect him to start in the slot in the opener against Green Bay.

Round 4 – Joel Iyegbuniwe, ILB, Western Kentucky

This most interesting pick of the week for Pace. If the Bears intend to play him inside, he’ll have a near-impossible time getting on the field. But he profiles similarly to Brendon Ayanbadejo – a solid defensive depth piece who excels on special teams. (If he sticks I’m sure I’ll need to Google the spelling of his name just as many times as I did Ayanbadejo’s in his career.)

Round 5 – Bilal Nichols, DT, Delaware

Akiem Hicks wore down in 2017. Eddie Goldman has an injury history. Nichols is being drafted to work steadily into the rotation and give these two great players a breather. In 2017 he simply devoured blockers in the middle of a 3-4 line. In 2016, according to Mike Mayock, he showed burst and acceleration getting to the quarterback. Rarely should one have expectations for a fifth-round pick. In this case, have some.

Round 6 – Kylie Fitts, Edge, Utah

Worth the risk for an athlete this impressive at a need position off the edge. Fitts has a terrific chance to be a real contributor to this Bears defense if he stays healthy. The problem? He’s rarely healthy. But it’s the sixth round. Why not? 

Round 7 – Javon Wims, WR, Georgia

A big dude who consistently makes highlight reel catches. Can he separate from pro corners? Doubtful. But with his size and speed, it’s impossible to rule him out of having a plausible chance to make some kind of impact in 2018.

I watch way more Delaware football than I care to admit. Watch this pick. This kid can play and will be comfortably on this roster. From Lance Zierlein:

Strengths

• Effort level almost never wanes
• Plays with good energy through the whistle and has hustle to pick up secondary sacks and additional tackles
• Decent athlete with lateral agility to shuffle along the line and man his run fit on stretch plays
• Feels pressure headed his way and shows ability to sink and brace against double teams
• Can spin out of down blocks and re-engage in the play
• Flashes hand quickness that coaches can work with

I had never heard of this linebacker (edge?) from WKU. So here’s some professional analysis from Lance Zierlein at NFL.com:

Strengths

• Rangy, athletic frame
• Plays with good speed in pursuit
• Shows early burst in his scrapes to play past climbing blockers
• Actively searches to strip the football and create opportunities to flip the momentum
• Finished 2017 with three forced fumbles
• Very smooth in his backpedal and when driving into space
• Has athletic ability to warrant consideration as a cover linebacker in subpackages
• Special teams talent to cover
• Finished career with 11 tackles on special teams

The Bears landed a much-needed interior lineman with their first pick of the second round and traded back into the round to grab a coveted wide receiver. Tomorrow I’ll be back to wrap up the draft in its entirety. Today? Highlights!

James Daniels, C/G, Iowa

From Lance Zierlein at NFL.com:

Daniels is a fluid mover with tremendous initial quickness to win positioning on most every zone block he’s asked to make — both on the first and second levels. His height, weight and arm length numbers at the Combine will be critical in either solidifying his draft slot or potentially dropping him a round. Some teams might see him as a zone-only center, but he may be strong enough to fit in with other blocking schemes. He needs to get stronger, but he’s a plus run blocker and pass protector with a chance to become a Pro Bowl starter.

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