No reason to bury the lede.

If Justin Fields were the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears from Week One, I would predict this team to win 9-10 games and make the playoffs. But he’s not the starting quarterback. And that prediction is impossible to make.

____________________

What Would Starting Fields Do?

This team’s offensive line will not be as bad as many predict, but the unit is still one of the most flawed on the roster. They’ll struggle to run the ball against bigger, more physical interiors. They’ll struggle on the edge against speedier rushers. With Dalton, that means no run game. With Dalton, that means sacks.

With Fields, it doesn’t. The optimum word for a player like Fields is extend. He’ll extend drives with that casual six-yard scramble on third-and-four. That’s three more plays; three more opportunities for big plays; ten more minutes of rest for the defense. Fields will also extend plays with his mobility. That’ll keep edge rushers more worried about contain than crash.

Fields at quarterback would see the offense jump 8-10 spots in every statistical category of note. He would still make plenty of mistakes. He would still turn it over a bunch. But a serious production increase would come with those errors.

And the Bears are starting Andy Dalton.

Read More …

Last season, DBB nailed the preseason Super Bowl prediction for the first time in our history. The excitement at our headquarters was palpable; the laudits many. The key to the city of Pasadena was an unnecessary thrill.

This season we seek to repeat that historic achievement. Three questions.

(1) What teams have the big-game quarterback?

(2) What teams have the kind of division that will escort them into the top seed?

(3) What teams have a pass rush capable of taking over in January?

NFC.

• Forget the East, though I think Washington‘s defense against that Dallas offense is fascinating when it comes to picking a division winner.
• In the West, I have loved Los Angeles all off-season but are any of the teams in that division getting to 12 wins? (In my gambling life, I’m hard-fading Arizona. I think they’re the worst coached team in the league and that situation feels combustible.)
• I’m really excited to watch the NFC South but I don’t think New Orleans has enough firepower to contain Tampa Bay and the other two don’t have enough defense.
• I couldn’t be less excited to watch the NFC North. It’s going to be a Green Bay runaway. Detroit might be the worst team in the league. Chicago is starting Andy Dalton. Minnesota will inevitably lose half that roster to Covid issues, because their quarterbacks room is Nutjob Central.

Sorry, folks, Green Bay. 

Read More …

Movies are subjective. So explaining a list like this seems to be of little use. This is them. These are it.

50. Joe Versus the Volcano

49. Sneakers

48. Planet of the Apes

47. Defending Your Life

46. Marathon Man

45. Monty Python and the Holy Grail

44. Annie Hall

43. Moonstruck

42. Anchorman

41. The Firm

40. A Fish Called Wanda

Read More …

There are thousands of fantasy football draft analysts out there and you can consume their content in any form you want. They got draft kits for sales. They have daily podcasts. They all write the same columns: Sleepers! Bold Predictions! Round-by-Round Value Selections! The Fantasy Industrial Complex has grown large enough to make Dwight Eisenhower blush.

My first draft in 18 years is tonight. My league is, let’s just say, unique. There are twelve teams and you are forced to draft the following:

• Two QBs (Start 1)
• Three RBs (Start 2)
• Three WRs (Start 2)
• Two TEs (Start 1)
• Two Kickers (Start 1)
• Two Defenses (Start 1)

You must draft exactly in these slots. No stockpiling at positions. This is a half PPR league but with no flex, the league actually skews more towards the quarterback and tight end than almost any other league out there. So here are some draft strategies I’ve developed over my several weeks of research, focused specifically on this league. Maybe they’ll help you if you’re drafting over the next six days. Maybe they won’t.

_____________________

#1 Make a Board, Stay True Early

Rounds one and two of a fantasy draft feel the same to me as rounds one and two of the actual draft. You’re looking for the guys who will carry your team for the duration of the season. For me, that means the following:

• Even if this draft has an early run on QBs, I’m not going there. Do I think Josh Allen is going to have a monstrous season? I do. I think the Bills are going to throw the ball in 2021 as much as any team in NFL history. But the value doesn’t present itself for me until round three, where I can put Allen on a roster with a frontline back and wideout.
• Do I like Darren Waller and George Kittle? Yes. But do I think the gap between those two and, say, Mark Andrews or TJ Hockenson will be wide this season? I do not.
• I can argue for taking Travis Kelce as early as fourth or fifth overall. Other than Kelce, it is best available running back/wide receiver with these two picks.
  • I think Austin Ekeler is going to be Kamara in Joe Lombardi’s offense.
  • Joe Mixon seems like the most undervalued guy in the analysis I’ve read; he’s got that backfield all to himself.
  • DK Metcalf has been available at the backend of most second rounds. If he’s your second pick, you’ve had a brilliant start.
• Dalvin Cook isn’t on my draft board. Maybe he’ll stay healthy but history says he won’t. I’m not taking shots on the chronically-injured until the mid rounds, where the value emerges.

Read More …

Matt Nagy likes to talk a lot without saying anything.

When asked last week why he was optimistic, his answer centered on the fact that more players understand their roles, having been in his system for longer. As expected, that response was universally panned because fans see more immediate results elsewhere.

But there was a second part of his answer.

After rambling about experience he added “When you have that and you have a guy like Andy (Dalton) and these quarterbacks that come in and understand it, that’s where it gives me confidence.”

Ah, yes. The most important position in sports does, in fact, matter. The truth is there is reason to believe the team’s offense will be better largely because the personnel fits what we believe he wants to do.

Nobody is going to tell you that Dalton is the savior. (Fields may be in time.) But Dalton can do things that previous quarterbacks simply couldn’t; most notably, he can throw the ball down the field with accuracy.

Keep in mind, Dalton isn’t a great downfield passer, but he’s better than what’s been here, according to Pro-Football-Reference.

• Since 2018, Dalton has 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on passes 15 yards or more down the field, with a passer rating of 77.3.
• In the same span, Mitch Trubisky had 15 touchdowns and 20 interceptions with a rating of 63.2.
• Nick Foles had seven touchdowns and 12 interceptions with a rating of 56.

Read More …

DBB’s reentry in the fantasy world has been an interesting experience. Not only have I not played fantasy football since 2003, I have completely ignored its existence. I had never heard of “ADP”; didn’t know that “target share” was a thing; never heard someone use the phrase “positive scripts”. I didn’t know about these things because they don’t have anything to do with actual football. And that’s okay.

Because what I’ve learned is that fantasy football has simply morphed into its own thing entirely. When I last played, your quarterback needed 250 yards to score. Your running back needed 100. Touchdowns were everything. Your draft strategy was pretty simple: pick the players good at football. Now, there’s more to it. Six catches for 49 yards would have gotten me zero points in 2003. Now, that’s good production from a running back in the passing game for fantasy.

My first draft in 18 years is Thursday night. I’ll have some thoughts on the overall draft process for Thursday and will post my team (with thoughts) on Friday. But today, I’m looking for help from those of you who’ve been doing this consistently for the last 18 years. I need sleepers.

In my league, I HAVE to draft three running backs and three wide receivers. I play two of each weekly. No flex. My strategy is to use those third slots on guys who might be perceived as shots: lower ADP, higher ceiling. (My strategies are pretty solid at quarterback and tight end.)

So using these rankings from numberFire, identify a RB and WR ranked outside the top 24 that you targeted/will be targeting in your fantasy drafts. Then, in the comments section, break down why you’ve identified them.

Who fits the bill? At running back, Trey Sermon, Sony Michel. At wide receiver, Tyler Boyd, Marquez Callaway. You don’t need to make an argument for these players being the best in the league. You just need to make an argument for their value in fantasy over the coming season.

Have at it.

Lesson #1

Bears don’t have an answer at second corner spot.

Kindle Vildor was the darling of the practice sessions but thoroughly underwhelmed in game action. Desmond Trufant has wanted to prove he still has it but hasn’t been able to prove he can stay healthy. Duke Shelley? Tre Roberson? Thomas Graham? Artie Burns? They’re just bodies.

What the Bears should do is play Graham and live with his learning on the job. But that would require the organization understand where they are in the championship timeline and their handling of Justin Fields has proven they do not. They will go with the lowest risk option opposite Jaylon Johnson and be vulnerable there all season long.

Lesson #2

Rodney Adams can play NFL football.

Adams’ preseason performances were better than anything former Bear Javon Wims and should-be-former Bear Riley Ridley have put on tape during their careers. And his rapport with Fields can not be overlooked. If Adams does not find a space on the final 53, it’s safe to say Matt Nagy put no import on anything that happened in preseason games.

Lesson #3

Justin Fields is the club’s most exciting player.

Khalil Mack is great. Allen Robinson is steady. But Fields is a needle mover at the sport’s most important position. Every snap he takes under center brings the entirety of Chicago to full attention. Every snap he doesn’t play in 2021 is a complete waste of time.

Fields is ready. Every single analyst objectively watching the Bears knows it. If only the head coach did.

That’s special. https://t.co/pIKXaIvvlP

— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) August 29, 2021