Poll: Expectations After a Week of Free Agency
Free agency success does not often equate to the field. Frequently the team making the largest cash splash in March lands with a deadened thump come September and beyond. But what Bears GM Ryan Pace has achieved in the first week of free agency is nothing short of a miracle.
Go through the league. Every team. And find the most improved position groups. Outside of the Giants defensive line, whose makeover cost about three hundred zillion dollars, one could argue the two most significantly upgraded positions in the NFL are on the Chicago Bears roster at inside linebacker and right guard.
Right up until it was reported Malik Jackson was signing with the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Bears were considered a favorite to sign the former Bronco. But the Bears were right. At $15 million person for the man widely regarded as the top free agent on the market, the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze.
Don’t get me wrong, Jackson is among the very best in the league at what he does. Turn on the AFC Championship Game and you’ll see why he got paid. So much of the focus was on Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware but the Patriots felt the need to double Jackson on nearly every passing play. When they didn’t, he pushed the guard back into Brady. It was a dominating performance.
It was an exciting opening of the league year for the Chicago Bears. And one thing is absolutely certain: they got better. Five thoughts…
Three thoughts:
UPDATE 1. Adam Schefter broke the news of the signing on Twitter. Trevathan was the most logical free agency target for the Bears as they faced a glaring need in the middle of their defense. Is Trevathan great? Not really. But he improves a unit in desperate need of improvement.
UPDATE 2.
ILB Danny Trevathan is known as a fast, rangy tackler who also can cover. He’s a bit undersized (6-1, 240), which deepens need for stout DL
— Rich Campbell (@Rich_Campbell) March 9, 2016
Monday 5:35 AM CST – Expect news to break rapidly over the next day or so as teams are now allowed to enter into contract negotiations with free agents. Last year we pretty much knew every major deal before the start of the league year. Stay tuned to DBB for updates as news comes in.
Monday 11:42 AM – Nothing is happening.
Monday 1:00 PM – This is actually a pretty good breakdown of the potential targets for the Bears by Moon. Seems to me the need at inside linebacker and marketplace are in alignment.
Monday 4:20 PM – I imagine teams/agents are all debating how long they can take before they leak the contract terms they’ve been illegally negotiating for weeks. Since they’ve only been “allowed to speak” since 4, what do you think? 5:30?
Monday 5:45 PM – Brace yourself, Bears fans.
Active market for LB Shea McClellin. Teams love his versatility. 3-4 teams like him at Mike and OLB. 4-3 teams like him at Mike and SAM.
— Rand Getlin (@Rand_Getlin) March 7, 2016
Monday 7:06 PM – Dwayne Allen was paid about 5 times what he’s worth by the Colts and Mike Klis reports Malik Jackson is a Bears target.
Tuesday 4:39 AM – What’s weird about this time of year is I wake up expecting to see big news having broken on my Twitter timeline overnight. Woke up this morning. Nothing. Won’t be available this morning (playing golf) so next update will be early afternoon.
Two things I’ve heard and believe. (1) Yes, the Bears are interested in both Danny Trevathan and Malik Jackson. But they seem more comfortable paying Trevathan, who could quarterback the defense. (2) Another primary target is the interior of the offensive line. Pace and Fox were not paying lip service to Charles Leno with recent comments. They are content with him starting on the edge in 2016. The player they should target is Richie Incognito but the Ray McDonald debacle looms large there.
Tuesday 2:48 PM – All signs pointing to a Bears/Trevathan deal. Stay tuned.
Wednesday 5:11 AM – Reports last night indicated the Falcons are also interested in Danny Trevathan and that Trevathan may be looking for more than the $7 million or so per the Bears are offering. Nevertheless, Trevathan seems to be the Bears initial target to start free agency.
Wednesday 8:51 AM – Marvin Jones has left the Bengals for the Lions, spurning the advances of former offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. Lesson for Bears while pursuing Trevathan. Players always choose more cash over a coach they liked.
Wednesday 12:20 PM – Bears are now being linked with Chiefs guard Jeff Allen.
The Bears have needs. Many needs. So I’ve decided to apply a point value to those needs. 0 points would mean the Bears have absolutely no need to address this position during free agency. 10 points would mean the Bears are in trouble come 2016 if they don’t make a significant move. Here are the rankings, with a single sentence of rationale for each.
9.2 Defensive Line
Yes, Eddie Goldman looked like a long-term contributor for the Bears up front, but this unit was the least explosive on the entirety of the roster in 2015.
8.3 Inside Linebacker
McClellin, Timu and Anderson each had moments last season but the Bears need a true run-stuffing thumper in the middle of their defense.
8.1 Offensive Line
With so much talent available in the middle of the line (Mack, Boone, Incognito) the Bears would be doing their run game in 2016 a tremendous disservice by entering the season with so many question marks along the line.
8.0 Tight End
If Martellus Bennett is truly headed out the door (as the whole world is reporting) the Bears not only need to sign Zach Miller but also pair him with another player to threaten the middle of the field.
Mock drafts are a mostly useless practice, but people like them and they’re fun to do. So here is my first attempt at a 2016 mock draft. Keep a few things in mind:
• I’m not a scout. I don’t pretend to be a scout. I’ll never pretend to be a scout. But I do read a lot and listen to a lot of scouts. I have about five people whose opinions I trust more than others. I typically lean toward people who were once in the league.
• Don’t say anyone “won’t” go anywhere. Nobody knows who is going where. Even if a team directly came out and said who they were going to take, we couldn’t believe it because they lie more times than not.
• In a First Draft Podcast with Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, Adam Schefter was adamant that three quarterbacks were going in the top 10. I’ve never heard Schefty more certain of anything so I believe him.
• A lot of these are going to be wrong. Of course they are, we haven’t even hit free agency yet. Even after free agency, mock drafts are going to be wrong. But, here goes…
