The above photograph is me and real. I bought that Bears Snuggie at a Walgreens on Clark.

Scoreboard watching!

The Bears need to win games. Nothing else really matters. But they would be brilliantly served by either Cam Newton and Panthers handing the Atlanta Falcons a road loss or the Minnesota Vikings reaching deep down and beating a Detroit team they despise. (Who doesn’t despise the Lions these days?) I think the former is more likely than the latter but I’ll be watching both closely (and Tweeting about them).

A Bit of News…

Some of you will be excited to hear of the “persistent chatter” among scouts that Bears GM Jerry Angelo could retire at the end of the season. I can’t imagine Jerry not coming back in 2012 and giving one more crack at a title with a healthy roster.

Final Thoughts on the Game…

I put the entire game on the defense this afternoon as I have no faith in the offense’s ability to do much of anything. The Broncos offense should not be able to mount productive drives against Urlacher, Peppers, Briggs and company and I hope LoveRod approach this game with the mentality of, “if we allow fourteen points, we lose.”

Bear down.

This will be an abbreviated version of the show this week due to my rather hilarious attempts to return to New York from Chicago which involved a bonus night in my favorite American city, a three-hour (2 Old Styles for $11) O’Hare delay and a flight that featured extreme turbulence and a man vomiting all over his white dress shirt. There are tremendous Bill Kirchen tracks included so give the show a listen.

Note: There is nothing Picks Contests related in the Weekend Show! All information regarding the first round is below.

Rules for Round One of the Playoffs

There are four matches in Round One, listed above in the bracket. (Tobijohn receives two byes for finishing with four perfect weeks. Ufficio and NewBear receive one bye for three perfect weeks.) The rules for this week are you need to select the traditional three games against the spread. Any three teams you want. Because this is a win-and-advance format there are also two tiebreakers.

TIEBREAKER #1: Caleb Hanie’s passer rating (closest wins)

TIEBREAKER #2: Tim Tebow’s rush yardage (closest wins)

Lines for Round One of the Playoffs

BALTIMORE -16.5 Indianapolis

CINCINNATI -3 Houston

GREEN BAY -11 Oakland

DETROIT -7.5 Minnesota

NEW YORK JETS -9 Kansas City

New Orleans -3.5 TENNESSEE

MIAMI -3 Philadelphia

New England -8 WASHINGTON

JACKSONVILLE -1.5 Tampa Bay

Atlanta -3 CAROLINA

San Francisco -3.5 ARIZONA

DENVER -3.5 Chicago

SAN DIEGO -7 Buffalo

DALLAS -3 New York Giants

SEATTLE -6.5 St. Louis

Full disclosure: I don’t love the Chicago Bears this week. No one who sat in Soldier Field Sunday afternoon and watched the Bears “offense” fail to score a touchdown while starting every drive from their own forty can possibly think Caleb Hanie is going on the road, in altitude, against a better defense and beating a team quarterbacked by Y-H-W-H. If you do believe the Bears will win, which I do, it is not based on anything you’ve SEEN from Hanie. So…

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• I will say about Tebus of Nazareth what I say about all running quarterbacks; read option or not. The Bears have arguably the best, most athletic linebacking corps in the league and I believe they’ll be able to keep Tebow and Willis McGahee from controlling this game on the ground. If they do it’ll force the Broncos and Tebow to do the thing they least want to do: throw.
• When Tebow has success in the air it is usually hitting wide open receivers down field in man coverage. But his delivery is too slow and deliberate to beat Charles Tillman or Tim Jennings, especially if either is given help over the top. I have little-to-no respect for Tebus’ ability to beat a team with his arm and if he does so against the Bears at least we can stop all that playoff talk.
• I like the Martz verbal approach this week, per Brad Biggs in the Trib. The Bears seemed committed last week to rushing the ball on first and second down, no matter what.  They struggled against nine-man fronts and set up difficult conversions for a shaky quarterback. This week the Bears must trust Caleb Hanie to throw on early downs or else they’ll find Von Miller burying him into the turf on every third down.
• Hanie has to protect the damn football. Tebow can’t throw a ball far enough to beat the defense with a first half Hail Mary (though you’d think that would be the only play he’d want called) so if Hanie does not throw the ball to the Broncos the Bears will have a very good chance to win this game. This is a larcenous defense that has been allowing their offense to win games with minimal offensive production.
• Here’s what I would do against the Broncos: take shots. I counted three separate times Sunday when Johnny Knox had a step or two on a corner in man coverage and all Caleb Hanie needed to do was release the football downfield. (And on all three Caleb had plenty of time to throw it.) The Bears have the speed on the outside to wreck havoc against the aging backend of the Broncos secondary. Put Hanie in shotgun and let Knox, Hester fly.
• I’d also love to see Tebus take that college garbage directly at Julius Peppers. If he does he won’t be finishing the season at QB for the Broncos. Peppers executed that clothesline right in front of me Sunday and it was violent. Tebus is due to take a shot and Pep has been delivering them weekly.

The season has changed. The goals have changed. But if the Bears make the postseason now, it will be a feather in the cap of every player on the defensive side of the ball and every coach on the sidelines. It starts Sunday. If they win this game, I think they make the playoffs.Chicago Bears 16, Denver Broncos 13

BEARS SHOULD PAY FORTE NOW
What better way for the organization to show loyalty to a very talented running back than to sign him to an extension a few day after he suffers an injury that may cost him the regular season. Jerry Angelo actually has the opportunity to cease being the heel of the “Pay Forte” wrestling match and come out like a decent, compassionate man. We’ve all seen how little JA cares about PR but someone must be whispering this in his ear, right?

HOW LONG WILL CALEB’S LEASH BE?
I can’t imagine Denver will be able to score many points offensively so if Caleb Hanie continues to fail at every level, how long will Lovie Smith let that continue? I don’t care if the backup is Enderle or McCown, therd is no way Hanie sees the second half if the Bears aren’t moving the ball on defense that allowed Christian Ponder to throw for 400 yards last week.

DABEARSBLOG PICKS CONTEST UPDATE!
The playoff bracket with fully explained rules will ne published Friday with the Weekend Show. Tobijohn and NewBearInTown will have first round byes. The other competitors: FQD1911, SCDave, BigDaddy, BossBear90, Shady, Mike V in OR, Enderwiggin and Michael L.

Take a look at the injuries that have debilitated the Bears this season. They lost former first-round picks and projected offensive line starters Chris Williams ans Gabe Carimi for the season. They lost their apparently best receiver Earl Bennett for a long stretch after a shot to the ribs. They lost their star quarterback for the regular season on a tackle attempt. They lost their starting tailback, MVP candidate for the same duration after a missed Matt Spaeth block and a direct shot to the knee. At intervals this year they’ve been without Marion Barber, Roy Williams (I know, who cares?) and were forced to play WITH Frank Omiyale.

Notice anything? Every significant injury this team has faced has been on the offensive side of the ball.

Sure you could argue the Bears would prefer Major Wright stay on the field for one complete game and losing DJ Moore hurt. But Wright keeps showing up on game day, making plays, while Corey Graham has not missed a beat filling in for Moore. If you offered LoveRod their current injury report on defense heading into Denver on September 1 they would have been leaping over one another to sign the deal.

This week that healthy defense takes a trip back to the early days of organized football as they meet Tebus of Nazareth and the read-option Broncos circus. The Broncos defense has been brilliant of late and will make road life for Caleb Hanie and the flaccid Bears offense more than difficult. If Lovie Smith expects more than 14 points from his quarterback he expects too much. It is time for Lovie’s pride and joy defense to dominate this antiquated attack. It is time for the defense to live up to the reputations, the contracts, the star power. Because they are all there. Urlacher. Peppers. Briggs. Tillman. If they allow Tebow to move the ball consistently and light up the scoreboard, the Bears had no business being in the postseason to begin with.

The defense has no excuses. None. If they are truly as good as they want us to think they are, they’ll show us Sunday afternoon in Denver. The conversation to this point on Tebow has been about whether this offensive system can be consistently successful at the professional level. The Bears defense has an opportunity Sunday to answer that question resoundingly.

No.

I have read the phrase in the comments section below and across the pages of both major Chicago dailies from my hotel room in Lakeview this morning. “The playoffs look like a pipe dream,” folks want you to believe. The truth is this: the playoffs are not a pipe dream. They are not even close to a pipe dream. The Bears sit today as the conference’s top wild card after every single team competing for the postseason in the NFC lost yesterday. They have their destiny in their own hands.

But it is not the hands of destiny I am worried about. It is the right hand of Jay Cutler. Cutler, according to reports, will travel to Denver this week and meet with Dr. Viola to assess the recovery of his thumb. (David Haugh chronicled Cutler’s relationship with the Colorado doc wonderfully in the Trib on Sunday.) If Cutty can’t return to the lineup by the first week of the postseason, the postseason won’t be a pipe dream but a nightmare. Caleb Hanie, Josh McCown, Nathan Enderle or whoever else the Bears suit up at QB will have no chance to win on the road at Dallas, New York, New Orleans or San Francisco. No. Chance.

And people seem surprised. Suprised a quarterback with the strongest arm in the sport can make up for weaknesses on the offensive line and deficiencies at the receiver position. Surprised a reach draft pick from a nothing college has not mastered one of the league’s most unnecessarily complicated offensive systems in his second start. Six weeks ago I would have needed a shout to be heard when exclaiming just how good I believe Cutler to be. Now a whisper could be heard.

The Bears must survive. There is no other way to describe it. They must score points any way possible. They must continue holding opponents down defensively. Dave Toub needs to spend a few nights drawing ’em up on special teams. Mike Martz needs to do for Hanie what Todd Haley did for Tyler Palko – give him a few single read throws on the outside to move the chains. The Bears need to turn winning ugly into an artform because, from the look of things, winning pretty is not an option with number twelve behind center.

They are nowhere near the team they were three weeks ago and they will not be that team for at least another three weeks. Sunday the Bears blew an opportunity to put a game between themselves and the field for a postseason berth. Now the margin of error is nothing. If they can get their quarterback back they can play with anyone in the league, even with Matt Forte on the bench for a while. But the Bears must survive the next four games to ensure their quarterback has something to come back to.

It is about survival. By any means necessary.

Okay. I have no idea why anyonewould try to seriously analyze this game. If Jay Cutler started, the Bears win by three touchdowns. But Jay Cutler did not start and somehow the Bears lost by a Hail Mary at the end of the first half.

1. Caleb Hanie is awful. Whatever you saw on television…he’s worse. We counted seven times during the game where Hanir held the ball and missed open receivers. Three of those resulted in sacks.

2. I know the Matt Forte injury will make people think the end is come but the Bears lacked nothing once we left the game.

3. Go to hell, Roy Williams.

4. If you want to fault the defense, go ahead. You’re wrong.

5. Julius Peppers is the best Bears defender of my lifetime.

6. Major Wright was playing a great game beford he got hurt. So, basically, stop expecting Major Wright to make it through a game.

7. Think about these two plays: the Barber screen and the Earl Bennett sideline route. How many points did the Bears leave out there?

8. I do not want to hear “Caleb is our quarterback.”

9. I don’t think it mattered but Robbie Gould missed another FG he should make.

10. First and goal from the seven. No points.

11. The offensive line was bad late but not until defenders could unload on obvious passes. Cutty makes plays with the same pressure.

12. Mike Martz seems like he’s already gone to a head coaching job which he won’t be offered.

13. Jay Cutler spent most of the game right in front of me. He was animated when Hanie missed throws. The telling thing? Earl Bennett was continually complaining to Cutty throughout the day.

14. Edwin Williams is not fast enough to the outside.

15. I don’t blame Lach for the Hail Mary. These guys are moronically taught to knock it down.

Ultimately here’s what I think. Nothing. I think it’s not worth our emotional energy to get upset by Caleb Hanie things. He’s bad. If Cutler does not return the only dream remaining is being thrashed in the first round. But can the Bears stay afloat til he returns? The Falcons helped. Currently the Lions are too.

I chose one of my favorite locales in the city as the game thread photo. And I don’t care what you say about it. (By the way, I’ll be at Rossi’s tonight for the Detroit Lions v. New Orleans Saints game if you’re in Chicago and want to come by for a hello. I’ll be the one in a worn orange cap, drinking Old Style bottles, playing Warren Zevon tracks on the jukebox and screaming “Who Dat!”)

Other scoreboard watching to be done:

• It’d be nice to see Houston’s terrific rush attack destroy Atlanta’s rush defense (one of the worst in the league). I just don’t know that the Texans will be able to hide Yates for four quarters.
• It sucks, I know, but root for the Packers to put the Giants to sleep for two reasons: (1) it’ll knock another team out of the mix and (2) we need the Packers playing for something Week 17.
• Root for Tony Romo to throw the game away and lose to Arizona.
• I’m also going to start rooting against San Francisco every week. I want New Orleans to slide into the two slot, giving the Bears a trip to either San Fran or Dallas/NY for first round of playoffs (should they make it).

Today on the Weekend Show I speak with author of the Walter Payton biography Sweetness, Jeff Pearlman. I encourage you to listen first to Jason Whitlock’s Real Talk interview with Pearlman by CLICKING HERE. I am covering some of the same ground as Whitty but that interview takes far longer to delve into Pearlman the man. If you have an opinion on this book, one way or the other, I encourage you to listen to this piece and allow the man to defend his work.

I do apologize for poor sound quality on both the show and Reverend themes. I shall rectify both issues by next week.

Lines This Week:

BILLS -1.5 Titans / DOLPHINS -3 Raiders / Ravens -6.5 BROWNS / Jets -3 REDSKINS / BUCS -3 Panthers/ 49ERS -13 Rams / Cowboys -6 CARDINALS / BEARS -8 Chiefs / STEELERS -7 Bengals / PATRIOTS -21 Colts / Chargers -2 JAGUARS / VIKINGS -1.5 Broncos / SAINTS -8 Lions / PACKERS -7.5 Giants / Falcons -2.5 TEXANS

The Brothers: Jon (23-12-1), Jeff (19-15-2), Chris (20-15-1)

The Commenter Perfect Weeks: tobijohn (4), New Bear in Town (3), Ufficio (3),  FQD1911 (2), SC Dave (2), BigDaddy (2), BossBear90 (2),  Michael L (2), Shady (2), MikeV in OR (2), greenbayman (1), Sacramento’s #1 Bears Fan (1), ben in norcal (1), CanadaBear (1), #76 Mongo Murph (1), TheFifth (1), DYLbears23 (1), EnderWiggin (1), IrishSweetness (1), Who is Willie Gault (1), SC Dave (1)

NOTE: Last chance, kids. You need to get to the second win to make the postseason, beginning next weekend. I will have the full playoff brackets ready by midweek.

SECOND NOTE on one of our sponsors. I purchased a photograph from Fisheye Vertigo and it’s brilliant. If you want to get a Chicago-related work for someone for the holidays I can’t think of anything cooler. Check them out by CLICKING HERE.

Will Kyle Orton be returning to Chicago as a starting quarterback? I think so. Will Caleb Hanie be able to improve upon his performance of a week ago? He has to. Will the Bears right the ship at home? Absolutely.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• The Kansas City Chiefs allow over 133 yards per game on the ground and the Bears are proving they can run the ball on just about anybody. The Bears, at home, should be able to control the game.
• The question offensively for the Bears will be Caleb Hanie and I spent Tuesday discussing everything I have to say on that matter. The Bears can lose this game if Hanie turns the ball over multiple times, especially in Bears territory. Ball security wins the day.
• I like Kyle Orton. He is a good quarterback who will be a sturdy backup for years to come. But the Todd Haley offense is complicated to learn and I can’t imagine Orton arriving at Soldier Field with anything more than an elementary understanding of it. Tyler Palko is going to start, per Todd Haley, but if he makes it through the game that’s a bad thing for the Bears defense.
• The Chiefs do have talent at the receiver position, including Dwayne Bowe. I was planning to spend my offseason campaigning for the Bears to sign Bowe until he concluded his effort against the Steelers Sunday night with one of the most gutless plays in the history of the NFL. (To see video, CLICK HERE.) The Bears need to be physical and hit these guys on the outside. It’s very clear they don’t want any part of it.
• The Chiefs have two road wins. They won at Indianapolis (and I’m confident half the SEC could do the same) and they won the ridiculous 28-0 game in Oakland as Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer threw a dozen interceptions. This Chiefs secondary is a bit larcenous and Hanie needs to be wary about sailing balls into coverage. Again, ball security wins the day.
• The Chiefs have only 13 sacks on the season – lowest in the league – but Tamba Hali needs to be accounted for at all times. Recently it hasn’t been a major concern for the Bears. Let’s hope that continues.
• And let’s not forget this is also Thomas Jones’ homecoming in Chicago. I have nothing to add to that fact. I just like Thomas Jones.
• Only two of kicker Ryan Succop’s last nine kickoffs have gone for touchbacks and punter Dustin Colquitt is an average player. I think Dave Toub and the Bears return units will be angry this week. Not only were they frustrated by Parts Unknown (Lechler/Janikowski) but their early penalties put the offense and Hanie in some seemingly insurmountable holes.
• Also looks like there’s a 50/50 chance of rain and snow showers throughout the afternoon. I’d like to see it. I’m tired of seeing football in sunshine.

Overall I think this game is a simple one. If the Bears don’t turn the ball over they definitely win. If they turn it over once, they should win. If they turn it over twice, they might not win. If they turn it over three times, all bets are off.

Chicago Bears 17, Kansas City Chiefs 10