The 2011 Chicago Bears are not one of the league’s elite teams, even though it’s quickly looking like there is only one elite team in the whole of the NFL.  They are also not one of the league’s bottom tier clubs.  They are in the middle ground, the nether region, the land of the unknowns.  They have been the very portrait of a .500 club.  At times terrific, at times dreadful, at times just plain mediocre, these Chicago Bears can go either way.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a similar boat.  Two weeks ago the Bucs lost 48-3 to a San Francisco 49ers team that, while improved, still start Alex Smith at quarterback.  And there is one rule I hold for an NFL franchises: you cannot lose by 45 points to a team quarterbacked by Alex Smith.  They took their lumps from the vicious Tampa-area media (one old fella outside a barbershop who continually yells “they need Brad Johnson back”) and took care of business against the New Orleans Saints at home.  They now lead the NFC South with a 4-2 record.

Now they meet in foggy London town.  The Bucs are already there, having flown out first thing Monday.  The Bears won’t arrive till Friday – a wise decision by Lovie Smith, if you ask me.  The last thing I’d want is my football team spending the week leading up to a pivotal conference game atop a double decker bus, cameras pointed at the Big Ben that doesn’t rape women in tavern toilets.  The Bears will arrive Friday, take a day to get the bearings, and go to work Sunday.  Business trip.  Not vacation.

Everybody wants to assign value to each week’s ballgame.  It’s what comes from having six days between Sundays.  Must win is the most incorrectly thrown around phrase in the NFL lexicon.  Sunday is not a game the Bears must win in any logical sense.  They can survive a 3-4 start.  But it is a game the Bears need to win if they want to establish themselves as a top half the league-type team.  It is a game they need to win if they wish to escape the winter doldrums of the .500 hover.  The Bears have an opportunity to wipe away the negatives of the early season and go into the bye at a we all-would-have-signed-for-it-in-August record of 4-3.  The have an opportunity to go into the bye as a winning football team.  It is not a must win.  It is merely winnable.

And good teams win the ones there to be won.

I am not that impressed.  I expected the Chicago Bears to dominate the Minnesota Vikings the way they did last night.  They are, without question, the superior football team and it was refreshing to see them perform like it.  Here are my quick hit thoughts on the ballgame.

• I want to see it with more consistency but the changes along the offensive line and at safety seemed to be quite effective.  Why the Bears would ever keep Chris Spencer on the bench and let Frank Omiyale play is beyond me.  Conte/Wright is an actual free/strong safety combination and a pretty good one.  Wright was terrific cutting down the run and Conte kept the game in front of him.  Coach Smith, you are applauded.
• I can’t root against Les Frazier.  Can’t do it.  But why, Les, why are you kicking the football to Devin Hester?
• The unheralded star of this ballgame was Chris Williams.  I have been as critical of the former first-round pick as anyone out there but he owned the middle of the Vikes defensive line and seemed to have sprinter’s speed when he jumped outside.
• I don’t know how comfortable I am with Jay Cutler’s confidence in Dane Sanzenbacher but I can’t remember a Bears receiver making a catch like his touchdown grab in the last decade.
• Ask yourself if a verifiable number one receiver catches the jump ball Jay threw to Johnny Knox in the end zone.  (The answer is yes.)
• Here are a few more first-time salutes: Nick Roach, Stephen Paea, Roy Williams.  I thought all three had solid evenings.
• Devin Hester played his finest all-around football game as a Bear.  Getting out of bounds after a reception as the first half clock was ticking down actually shocked me.
• If this is how Matt Forte is going to run the ball when he’s hungry for a new contract, why would you ever pay him? (That being said, Jerry should just cut the check at this point.)
• Tyler Clutts was a terrific find by Mr. Angelo.
• Don’t think special teams are pivotal?  Ask the Vikings.  They couldn’t punt the ball more than twenty yards, shanked a short field goal and allowed a kick return touchdown.  Adam Podlesh punted the ball better than he has all year.
• I love having Jay Cutler as the Bears quarterback.  There, I said it.  You are seeing what he’s capable of with a few seconds in the pocket.
• Anybody else notice a play in the second half wherein Peanut Tillman was rushing off the edge and Julius Peppers was covering a receiver down the field?  I thought I was seeing things.  Overall, I thought LoveRod’s defensive game plan for this game was terrific.  They brought extra defenders at the quarterback all night long.
• Don’t want to complain but D.J. Moore…c’mon!  Coaches put you in the perfect position for a pick six and you drop the ball?  Can’t have that.
• You guys believe me now about Donovan McNabb, right?  Urlacher and Paea both made a great play on the safety but all McNabb had to do was reach the ball out beyond the goalline
• In this offense, specifically this offense, the Bears made the right decision by choosing Kellen Davis over Greg Olsen.  Every week Davis is surprising me with his ability to get open and make plays.

A thorough, dominating effort that should inspire some confidence around Halas Hall.

Lovie Smith has benched Frank Omiyale.  He has benched Chris Harris and Brandon Meriweather.  The head coach is attempting to seize control of the organization, perhaps recognizing his fragile job security, and putting himself on the line by starting Major Wright and Chris Conte.  Will they last?  Who knows.

Sunday night’s game is now the second must-win of the 2011 campaign.  The responded the first time around, at home against Carolina.  Will they respond this evening?

If you are going to scoreboard watch (and I am) here are your rooting interests:

1 PM GAMES

San Francisco over Detroit

Buffalo over New York Giants

4 PM GAMES

New England over Dallas

New Orleans over Tampa Bay

Lines This Week:

PACKERS -14.5 Rams / STEELERS -12 Jags / REDSKINS +1.5 Eagles / LIONS -4.5 49ers / FALCONS -4 Panthers / BENGALS -7 Colts / GIANTS -3.5 Bills / RAVENS -8 Texans / RAIDERS -5.5 Browns / PATRIOTS -7 Cowboys / BUCS +4 Saints / BEARS -3 Vikings / JETS -7 Dolphins

Pick three games against the spread and you can’t duplicate the selections of myself or my brothers.

CURRENTLY ON THE BOARD:

The Brothers:  Jon (10-4-1), Jeff (9-5-1), Chris (9-5-1)

The Commenter Perfect Weeks: FQD1911 (2), New Bear in Town (2), BigDaddy (1), DYLbears23 (1), BossBear90 (1), Michael L (1), greenbayman (1), tobijohn (1), Sacramento’s #1 Bears Fan (1), ben in norcal (1), SC Dave (1)

The photo above is what happens to gear from Super Bowl losers.

Didn’t the Bears just play a game?  I was kind of shocked to realize it was Wednesday night and I had to write a game preview already.  Anyway the Bears play their second consecutive game in primetime, against another division rival, and this is the definition of a must win.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• The one-dimensionality of the Minnesota Vikings on offense.  The Bears will commit this entire week to stopping the run game, containing Adrian Peterson.  They’ll be successful to a degree.  I can easily see AP breaking off a long one at some point Sunday night but I don’t think he’ll find enough consistency on early downs to keep Minnesota in control.
• Donovan McNabb is not very good anymore.  And he’s nowhere near accurate enough on any routes outside of the screen game Minnesota rarely utilizes.  If McNabb is able to beat the Bears secondary, dissect the Cover 2 and win then we should not expect the Bears defense to stop another quarterback on their 2011 schedule.
• Having seen a lot of Leslie Frazier’s work thus far, I think it’s safe to say the Bears are not going to face a coaching disadvantage this week.
• Jay Cutler is starting to put heat on Martz & Company in his weekly press conferences.  He’s calling for better protection schemes.  He’s calling for quicker releases.  And I think he’s going to get them Sunday night.  Couple success in the short passing game with Matt Forte’s team MVP season and the Bears will move the ball efficiently.
• Devin Hester has not played a return game as poor as Monday night in an awful long time.  He’s back in primetime, where he’s thrived, and I think he’ll light up the scoreboard against the Vikings.
• The Bears are benching Frank Omiyale.  You know when you watch poker on television and they tell you the percentage possibility each player has of winning each hand?  Well the fewer snaps Omiyale plays for the Bears the higher their possibility of victory rises.  So if Omiyale plays 1% of snaps, the Bears have a 94% chance of victory.  If he plays 10% of snaps, the Bears have a 73% chance of victory.  If he plays 100% of snaps, the Bears have 1% chance of winning and 100% chance of recording the most false starts in the NFL that week.  Seriously, though, is Chris Williams really not a better option than this guy at tackle?
• Look at the passing games the Bears have faced thus far.  Since beating up Matt Ryan in Week One, the Bears have faced 3 of the top 5 passing offenses around.  (And Detroit is a not too shabby 10th.)  Now they actually get the opportunity to face a team with weaker passing statistics then their own.  I think they pounce on it.
• Never underestimate the “need it more” factor in the NFL.  The Vikings don’t have any delusions of titles this season.  The Bears still do.  They’ll approach this game like their season depends on it.  The Vikings will be relaxing off their beat down of the Cardinals.

Chicago Bears 27, Minnesota Vikings 13

As the Cubs steal headlines of both major dailies with their procurement of Theo Epstein’s services, the Bears slide to the second sports story until Sunday night’s contest with the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field.  They are beginning a two-week stretch of must win football games against their current division rival to the west and their former division rival (Tampa) in the eastern most location of the NFL – London, England.  (I will write extensively next week about how ridiculous I find this London game and how Roger Goodell’s manifest destiny concept for the NFL will be his ultimate undoing as commissioner.)

Where do the Bears go from here?  They are five weeks into the 2011 campaign and have more far more questions than answers.  Can they find professional, capable safety play out of the combination of Harris, Meriweather, Steltz and whomever else they pull off random practice squads?  Can they find any consistency at the receiver position without making a big splash before the trade deadline – perhaps acquiring a former favorite target of Mr. Cutler residing in Miami, Florida?  Can they survive another game without Gabe Carimi and with Frank Omiyale?

I don’t know the answer to any of these questions.  That’s unfair.  I know the answer to the third question.  No.  If the Bears had guts they would have released Frank Omiyale first thing Tuesday morning and sent him to the UFL, if that’s still around.  I don’t believe J’Marcus Webb is going to become Anthony Munoz anytime soon but I’m willing to forgive him the mistakes of a young, raw talent attempting to adapt to one of the most difficult positions in football.  Omiyale is a dreadful, dreadful football player and his time is beyond gone.

Needless to say the Bears need to get better.  They need to improve.  And they have plenty of time to do so.  A lot of fans, many of you reading this column, would prefer to just type FIRE ANGELO NOW or LOVIE HAS TO GO or CLICHED NEGATIVE FOOTBALL FAN THING.  And that’s understandable, given the way the season has started.  But I will wait to light the torch and hunt the beast until the Bears are mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.  Then and only then will my focus shift from 2011 to 2012.  There is no fun for me in rooting for failure, rooting for change at the top, even if that’s what I know must take place for the organization to find sustained, long term success.  I live to watch this club every Sunday and there will never be a Sunday I don’t root for them to shellack the opponent.

The next two weeks will determine whether the Bears play meaningful football games in the months of November and December.  Winning both will put them at 4-3 heading into the bye, giving them a chance to get fully healthy for the backstretch.  But just as important as winning both games would be seeing the Bears improve and gain confidence in the plaguing areas of the first five weeks.  Beating Minnesota and Tampa won’t be rewarding if they continue to hand out free rushing yards like candy on Halloween and the Cover 2 continues looking like the Cover Who.  Beating Minnesota and Tampa won’t matter if Jared Allen ends Jay Cutler’s season with a couple blindside hits.

So where do the Bears go from here?  They go to Soldier Field Sunday night.  They play the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings will want to hand the ball to Adrian Peterson 30-plus times and right now Les Frazier believes that approach can beat the Bears.  If it doesn’t, if the Bears win, they’re back to .500.  Back to the land of the living.  And if the Bears beat the Vikings we can assume they’ve solidified, to some extent, the rush defense.

There are no big fixes.  2011 is now a game-by-gamy proposition.  And Sunday night is a very big game.

The NFL trade deadline rarely involves any significant player movement.  It just doesn’t happen very often in the league.  But there is a deal that can be made right now by the Chicago Bears that will make them better for the next five years.  They Bears should deliver a third-round draft pick to the Miami Dolphins for Brandon Marshall.

Why?

• The Miami Dolphins are sure to be looking at a top five pick this spring and have no reason to hold on to Marshall if they can get anything in return.
• Marshall has been dropping TD passes for the Dolphins and the press has been killing him.
• Cutler equated Marshall to Calvin Johnson last week during his press conference.  When asked what he thought about the prospect of playing with a Calvin Johnson-type he said, “I played with a Brandon Marshall-type.”
• The fans in Miami want Marshall gone too.
• Marshall is only a year older than Calvin Johnson and would give the Bears a core of players at quarterback, running back and wide receiver moving forward.  If the Bears were to get Carimi back healthy and draft a first-rounder at the other tackle spot, the turnaround for this club could be quick.

This is not a fantasy scenario.  This is an easy deal for the club to make and a deal that should be made.  It would send a message to the fans, a message to the players and a message to quarterback.  That message?  We’re going to do everything possible to make our franchise quarterback successful.

I try not to be rash, especially in the immediate aftermath of football games.  I invest so much emotionally into these ball games (as I know many of you do) it becomes difficult to remove the impulsive anger/disappointment when stepping back to analyze what took place on the field.  So today I present a practical approach, both positive and negative, to looking at where the Bears stand after five weeks of the NFL season.

NEGATIVE

1. The Bears defense is doing what they are designed not to do: allow big plays.  The reason is the safety position (we knew this coming into the year) and the disappearing act at the linebacker position (nobody saw this coming).
2. The Bears are dropping too many Jay Cutler passes.  The reason is they are mediocre wide receivers.  We knew this coming into the year.
3. The Bears are struggling along the offensive line.  The reasons are J’Marcus Webb is green (we knew this) and Gabe Carimi is hurt (we know all about Frank Omiyale).
4. Mike Martz and the offensive coaching staff are simply not getting the job done.  Not enough throws to Forte.  Too many bubble screens to Hester.  Too many deep drops into a shaky pocket.  Not helping their tackles once they begin to struggle in games.  Right now the Bears offense is literally being saved by the quarterback’s moxie/ridiculous arm and Matt Forte.
5. The truth is the Bears are making too many mistakes.  False starts, drops, missed defensive assignments…etc.  These are organizational concerns – Jerry, Lovie, Virginia, Rahm, everyone.  These are also correctable concerns.  But the Bears know these concerns exist heading into each Sunday and they don’t seem to make them priorities.

POSITIVE

People tell me it is too early in the season to scoreboard watch.  I don’t agree.  Right now if you’re a Chicago Bears fan, put the division title out of your mind.  The Packers are a far superior football team and will remain so throughout 2011.  The Lions are not a far superior football team and the Bears will get another crack at them at Soldier Field  down the line.  But the Bears are ALREADY three games back of the Lions.  So put that at of your mind too, for now.

Go look around the rest of the conference.  Dallas?  Giants?  Falcons?  Bucs?  Redskins?  Eagles?  Where is that second wildcard team coming from?  The answer is it could be anywhere.  Right now the Chicago Bears don’t look anything close to a title contender but winning the next couple weeks will send them into their bye 4-3 and put them in a terrific position to be a playoff team.  I repeat: this is not a championship caliber team.  But to believe this season is anywhere near over because of the 2-3 start is simply wrong.

OVERALL

The Bears have a home game against the Vikings and a London game against the Bucs.  If they can win these two and begin correcting their fairly large-scale errors, they can make a run to the postseason.  9-7 is going to get in and getting in is what it’s all about.  Meaningful games in December are what it’s all about.  They need to win these two to secure them.

1. Lovie Smith.  Really, Lovie?  You face a fourth-and-one and decide to try and coax an offside.  Then when that does not work, you decide to call timeout.  Then after the timeout you decide to go on fourth-and-one and run an inside handoff into the best part of the ENTIRE LIONS TEAM!  Why would anyone take you seriously anymore?
2. Lovie Smith.  Explain to me your defense.  I’ve heard it should stop big plays.  It doesn’t.  I’ve heard it should force offenses to run long drives.  It doesn’t because they score on big plays.  So what is it you bring to the city of Chicago?
3. Lovie Smith.  It may not have mattered but when you’re in field goal range down 11 with under a minute to go, kick the field goal.  It gives you a chance to win.
4. Lovie Smith.  You are responsible for penalties, especially false starts on the road.  And your team looked like amateurs tonight.  Are you happy with that?
5. Jerry Angelo.  If you want receivers that make catches consistently or safeties that stay in position, you have to sign them or draft them.  This group is not sufficient.
6. Chris Harris.  Keep Tweeting, CH, seriously.  You played the worst game by a safety I think I’ve ever seen tonight.  You were lost in coverage and actually seemed to not care about making tackles in run defense tonight.  Please, Lovie, stop blitzing this guy on run downs.  #YouAreTerrible
7. J’Marcus Webb and Frank Omiyale.  I know Omiyale sucks.  I am starting to think Mike Tice’s dreams for Webb are just those…dreams.
8. Lovie Smith.  Explain to me the offensive game plan tonight, Lovie.  Some want to blame this on Mike Martz but I have no interest.  You are the head coach.  Explain to me what you planned to achieve offensively tonight.
9. Lance Briggs.  How much more money do you want to make?  Sure you don’t want to keep playing at your current rate?  You have been an invisible entity this season.
10. Peanut Tillman.  So what are you?  You drop interceptions and can’t actually cover a receiver man-to-man?  If another guy coached this team, would you make the roster?

I am angry.  I won’t listen to idiots telling me the season is over because 2-3 is one game out of the wild card.  But I am angry.  Our football team is better than it is being coached.  Will that change?  I don’t see it.  But the Vikings come to town next week.  It will be interesting.