Okay, so we’re trying something new tomorrow. 

Instead of just leaving a picture up on the site for the entire day and night, we’re going to have DaBearsBlog’s Twitter updates (read: mine) on the main page.  So I’ll be commenting throughout the day (specifically the Minnesota game) and during Bears v. those fellas from Wisconsin.  It will update automatically so you guys can just comment and debate as usual.  If you’re interested in what I’m thinking, just look up.  There will be sporadic remarks and end of quarter recaps.

We launch the new season.  Here’s hoping it will be unforgettable. 

The Twitter feed is not automatic, but I’ll be updating throughout the game as I expect the big boy reporters will. Jump all over the comments and enjoy the game. You can also check out another ChicagoNow game thread right here in which a Bears blogger and a Packers blogger duke it out.

Also, disregard the time stamp on the tweets. They’re one hour behind.

I’m not a big Bill Simmons fan.  I prefer sports writers write about sports and keep pop cultural references to a minimum.  He does make a solid point about Jay Cutler in his first picks column:

Chicago fans have been wondering why I dumped them and adopted the Packers as my NFC North team and Super Bowl pick du jour. It came down to one thing: I didn’t want to root for Jay Cutler. Has he had a likable moment yet? This year will be his coming-out party as the most despised player in football. Every time they show him on the sidelines, he looks like a pissed-off trust-fund kid who can’t believe the valet scratched his Escalade hybrid. And you know what? He makes the league more fun. I like rooting against him the same way I liked rooting against Rick Barry, Bill Laimbeer and the Iron Sheik. We need more Jay Cutlers in sports. Not everyone was meant to be liked.

I absolutely agree with him (for once).  What’s great about Cutler is his complete willingness to be disliked.  I’d take honest over nice every day of the week.  Nice is boring.  Nice is Kyle Orton.  Honest is downright noble.

Now my three picks for the week…

Houston -4 over the Jets – Pass rush, plain and simple.  The Jets enter the game with their two best rushers (Calvin Pace and Shaun Ellis) suspended against one of the league’s most effective passing attacks.  I think Houston scores early and the Jets fall way behind as they subject a rookie quarterback to Mario Williams.  Houston 34, New York 13

Atlanta – 4 over Miami – I cornered myself here.  I think very highly of the Falcons and I’ll lose all that momentum if they lose to a boring, beatable Dolphins team.  Matt Ryan and Michael Turner keep the ‘fins off balance all afternoon, leading to an easy victory.  Atlanta 27, Miami 16

Cleveland +4 over Minnesota – Because nothing is going to go right in Minnesota this season, that’s why.  Brett Favre, having no chemistry with Bernard Berrian or Greg Lewis, continually dumps the ball off to Shiancoe and Taylor.  It leads to many first downs and few points.  Phil Dawson nails a 51 yarder at the whistle.  Cleveland 19, Minnesota 16

I don’t think I’ve ever been this juiced for the start of a Chicago Bears season.  After taking a day sabbatical from the sports world, I am back with a couple thoughts.

(1) I fully expect Charles Tillman to start Sunday night and so does Lovie Smith.  Tillman is the team’s most reliable corner and the Bears need his tackling on the outside.  As crazy as it is to consider, division games mean the world come season-ending tiebreakers and the Bears should risk losing Tillman for the rest of September to beat the Packers.

(2) If Danieal Manning isn’t healthy enough to start on Sunday, I assume he won’t be returning kicks.  If I’m the Bears – and I’m not – I’m either activating Jackass or allowing Devin Hester to return kickoffs.  Garrett Wolfe reminds me of Autry Denson back there and Denson’s fumble in the 2001 playoffs is one of my saddest moments as a Bears fan.

(3) Bob LeGere wonders if the Bears will seek vengeance for last season’s debacle at Lambeau Field.  I’ve been wondering the same thing for a couple days.  They were routinely embarrassed by Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Grant and mailed the game in offensively.  I think winning/losing can be directly tied to one statistic: sacks.  If the Bears get Rodgers down three times, they win.    

I’m writing my Week One Bears pick on Thursday morning for two reasons.  (1) I’m too damn excited to wait and (2) I’ll be nowhere near a computer for the next twenty-four hours.  So, without further adieu…

Why do I like the Chicago Bears this week?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.
• The Packers will score in this game – most likely early.  But Jay Cutler and the offense will respond quickly, allowing the defense to play the final three quarters without the pressure of the last three years.  It’ll ignite the pass rush and lead to a big turnover or two in Packers’ territory.
• Brad Maynard has been quietly kicking the hell out of the ball all preseason long.  He pins the Packers inside the ten yard-line multiple times Sunday night.  On the other sideline, Mike McCarthy decides to kick away from Devin Hester and leaves us with too many short fields.
• Something about primetime football inspires Alex Brown, who made the two biggest plays of the 2008 season in the evening hours.  He’s my favorite player on that side of the ball and I foresee mentioning that anyone who’ll listen at Josie Woods around 10:49 PM.
• The Packers’ corners are skilled but who is going to cover “Jersey” Greg Olsen?  If they commit a safety to him (Bigby or Collins), look out for big Matt Forte rush totals.  If they don’t, look for big totals from “Jersey” Greg Olsen.
• And yes, we know Forte is a better football player than Ryan Grant.  But
  for the first time in nearly a decade the Bears may have a superior
  offensive line.  The high-flying Chicago Bears take a lead into the
  fourth quarter and the boys up front put it away.

Chicago Bears 34, Green Bay Packers 24

Falcons, Bears, Eagles, Seahawks, Packers, Saints.  Who joins them in the 2009 postseason?

#1 Seed – San Diego Chargers
Be honest.  How many games can you see the Chargers losing to the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos this season?  I’m setting the over/under at half-a-game and taking the under.  That means Rivers & Co. will only need to go 6-4 over their next ten to finish 12-4. 

#2 Seed – New England Patriots
You know what?  This team is flawed.  I don’t put a lot of stock in the preseason but one noticeable trend developed: Tom Brady took shots from both the Bengals and the Redskins.  This offensive line is not great and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brady settle for a lot of underneath stuff to Welker and Chris Baker as a result.  And I know Belichick is the best but can this defense really lose Bruschi, Vrabel, Seymour…etc. and not miss a beat?  Awful lot of a criticism for a two seed, ain’t it?

#3 Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers
There’s been a surprising amount of media members picking against the Steelers for what feel like arbitrary reasons.  “Big Ben had a strange off-season.  Post-Super Bowl hangover.  Blah, blah, blah.”  Based purely on the roster, this is the best team in football and I’d pick them to finish at the top of the conferene if they didn’t have Baltimore twice, Minnesota, Chicago, Green Bay, Tennessee and San Diego on the schedule.

#4 Seed – Tennessee Titans
Bob Sanders is missing the first five games of the year for the Colts.  The Texans are an awkward tackle away from the Rex Grossman era.  I’ll take the best coach and most reliable defense/rush game in the division.          
#5 Seed – Baltimore Ravens
Because the play football the way the Chicago Bears used to…

#6 Seed – Indianapolis Colts
Because I think, overnight, the AFC has no depth.

WILDCARD ROUND
Pittsburgh Steelers over Indianapolis Colts (Colts lack rush defense…)
Tennessee Titans over Baltimore Ravens (Titans avenge loss in 2008.)

DIVISION ROUND
San Diego Chargers over Tennessee Titans (Titans can’t keep up…)
Pittsburgh Steelers over New England Patriots (Tom Brady sacked 4 times.)

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Pittsburgh scores a fourth-quarter touchdown to cut San Diego’s lead to 27-21 with about 8:14 left on the clock.  After a touchback, Phil Rivers leads the Super Chargers on an eleven play, seven minute drive – sealing the game with a short fieldgoal.  San Diego 30, Pittsburgh 21.

Each year, I perform the futile endeavor of predicting the six playoff teams in each conference and selecting a Super Bowl champion.  In the four years I’ve been doing this, I’ve gotten two Super Bowl losers right and no winners.  So I’m shit at it.  But I like it.  Screw you.

First, the NFC…

#1 Seed – Atlanta Falcons
They’ve got the quarterback, running back, offensive line and receivers.  They added arguably the best pass-catching tight end in the history of the game.  They’re front four on defense is better than the seven guys behind but with Anderson and Abraham on the edge, they’re capable of consistently game-altering plays. 

#2 Seed – Chicago Bears
Maybe I’m crazy but I love this club and I think they’ll put the conference on alert by winning at Green Bay in Week One and beating the champs the following week.  The Bears have one primary weakness, in the secondary, but should be able to compensate with their first productive offense in a generation.

#3 Seed – Philadelphia Eagles
This is more of an anti-Giants selection.  The Eagles are good on the offensive line and at the skill positions but I think no coordinator will be missed more than the late-Jim Johnson.  Johnson’s attacking style compensated for a lack defensive talent for over a decade and his passing will force McNabb and the boys to put up 30+ each week.  I think they get to ten wins and that should be enough to take a fading NFC East.

#4 Seed – Seattle Seahawks
I’m notorious for clinging to teams whose window has already closed and that might be the case here.  But the Cardinals were one of the worst teams in football last December and I think that’s closer to who they truly are.  Matty H has the best receiving corps he’s ever had.  He’s got runners with something to prove and a left tackle itching to re-start a Hall of Fame career.  Most importantly, his back is healthy.  I think nine wins takes the West and I think the Seahawks hit that number.   #5 Seed – Green Bay Packers
I think the top wildcard is coming from the North and I foresee some passionate performances from the Packers against the Vikings.  As a matter of fact, I think the Packers will beat the Vikings twice.  Why?  Because I want to see Favre’s face when they do.  The Packers lost 9 of their 10 games in 2008 by a total of 41 points (and two of those in overtime).  They’re good. 

#6 Seed – New Orleans Saints
The Saints have been close for several years but it seems they get their ass kicked in Chicago every winter, putting them out to pasture.  After a December 6th game in D.C., the Saints face @ Atlanta (dome), home Cowboys (dome), home Bucs (dome), @ Carolina (warm).  Those aren’t particularly easy games but they won’t need to battle the elements – a fight they’ve been losing since Sean Payton/Drew Brees took over.

WILDCARD ROUND
Philadelphia Eagles over New Orleans Saints (There’s that weather…)
Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (The better team dominates.)

DIVISION ROUND
Atlanta Falcons over Green Bay Packers (Go with the better run game.)
Chicago Bears over Philadelphia Eagles (McNabb mistakes cost club.)

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The most exciting football game of the year is played as Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler each eclipse 300 yards in a dome-set shootout.  With the game tied at 31 late and 1:13 on the clock, Devin Hester fields a punt on the Bears eleven yard-line and crosses midfield.  Cutler hits Desmond Clark over the top on a play-action pass, gaining almost twenty yards.  After a short Matt Forte gain and a kneel down, Robbie Gould knocks through a 46 yarder to send the Bears to the Super Bowl.  Chicago 34, Atlanta 31.

With Danieal Manning coming back from a hamstring injury and Garrett Wolfe currently listed as the starting kick returner, it’s time for the Chicago Bears to pull their heads out of their asses.  Devin Hester should return kickoffs Sunday night in Green Bay.

I’m not arguing that Hester should do it for the entire season, especially if Danieal Manning shows the burst and breakaway quickness he showed down the stretch in 2008.  But until that point, Manning’s success in the defensive backfield is actually more imperative than Hester’s contributions in the passing game.  I know that sounds insane but it’s not.  Manning will be responsible – with a couple other fellas – for stopping one of the game’s elite passing attacks.  In the home of our longest rival.  In primetime.  If Devin Hester’s offensive production is the key to the Bears winning Sunday night…I’ll see you Monday.

Put Hester back there and take a chance with one of the most exciting weapons in the history of the sport.  If you’re as happy with the wide receiving corps as you claim to be, it won’t be a big deal to line up a few times with DA or Hands out wide.  If not, I still don’t care.  Sunday night has the makings of an old-fashioned shootout and I’d hate to lose a gunfight because I forgot my best gun.

Last year, the Packers embarrassed the Bears at Lambeau Field 37-3.  Aaron Rodgers had all day in the pocket; completing balls to Driver, Jennings and Lee (and six others) by owning the center of our defense.  To add insult, Ryan Grant and their big offensive line dominated our otherwise sturdy rush defense to the tune of 145 rushing yards and a fifteen minute edge in time of possession.  It was the Bears worst performance of 2008 and it made me dry heave in the Josie Woods toilet.

Beating the Packers Sunday night will come down to breaking Rodgers’ rhythm.  The Packers have had a much-ballyhooed preseason of offensive dominance and the only way to injure their confidence is to disrupt their rhythm right out of the box.  An early sack.  A well-timed interception.  A three-and-out.  Rodgers completed over 68% of his passes in the two games a year ago.  He threw 69 times and was sacked nil.  It’s not surprising that he was a massive Alex Brown hand from going 2-0 against the Bears in his first season as Packers quarterback. 

And as successful a preseason as this was for the Bears, a dangerous trend continued.  Trent Edwards went 10-for-10.  Eli Manning went 7-for-10.  Kyle Orton went 12-for-16.  Starting quarterbacks this preseason completed 80% of their passes.  The old axiom of establishing the run will be ignored by opposing offensive coordinators if the Bears continue to allow easy completions/yards in the passing game.  When opponents are connecting at an 80% clip, why bother putting a tailback on the field?  Teams used to run to setup the pass.  Look for the opposite to be true against the Bears in 2009.

That’s why the first few series will be so important for the Bears defense Sunday night.  This is the finest passing attack they’ll face all season long and if they allow Rodgers & Co. to move up and down the field at will, they’ll be in for a long evening.  Our offense can not be expected to gel for 40 in their first full game of action.  It’s imperative that the defensive unit – all but one of which returns from last season – set the tone for 2009. 

Breaking down the opener starts this afternoon.  For now, let’s re-live the greatest Bears football moments of 2008.

And then…