All of a sudden, the Bears’ WR room looks fairly solid, as they return Darnell Mooney, their leading receiver over the last two years, added Chase Claypool in a midseason 2022 trade, and traded for DJ Moore from Carolina this offseason. As you can see in the table below, this gives Chicago three WRs who put up starting-caliber (top 96, or 3 per team) production in 2022.

Of course, volume isn’t everything.

It is also worth exploring how efficient a player was with the targets they received. The table below shows some basic efficiency stats for Moore, Mooney, and Claypool in 2022, as well as ranks relative to the 80 NFL WRs who saw at least 50 targets. The spread of outcomes for those 80 players is also shown to give more context overall. Any areas where a player ranked in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while the bottom 25% are highlighted in red.

A few thoughts:

• At first glance, the efficiency for all three players looks pretty poor. Mooney was around average in all three metrics, while Moore had a low catch percentage but was otherwise fine and Claypool was bad across the board. It’s important to keep in mind, however, that all three were in bad passing offenses last year, largely due to poor quarterback play.
  • Moore spent his season catching passes from Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and PJ Walker. As a team, the Panthers finished 31st in completion percentage, 15th in yards/attempt, and 27th in passer rating.
  • Mooney spent 2022 in Chicago catching passes from Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian, Nathan Peterman, and Tim Boyle. The Bears were 30th in completion percentage, 21st in yards/attempt, and 26th in passer rating, so within that context producing average efficiency overall is a big win for Mooney. As we saw during Fields in Focus, Mooney was one of only two competent targets the Bears had last year, and there was definitely a clear split in efficiency throwing to Mooney/Kmet and everybody else.
  • Claypool split his season between Chicago and Pittsburgh, where he caught passes from Mitchell Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. The Steelers finished 19th in completion percentage, 28th in yards/attempt, and 30th in passer rating.

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One week from today,

the Schmitz era will begin.

Where is my gold watch?

Enjoy the holiday. Data has some excellent work on Wednesday.

Something tells me the new editor (a) won’t be doing links collections very often and (b) won’t find the cat pun as funny as the current editor. Nevertheless, here are a few things worth looking at as we venture into the holiday weekend.

• If you’re looking to ruin a BBQ soon, Pepsi is launching a condiment specifically for hot dogs.
• Dan Pompei, for The Athletic, ranks the 15 best decisions in the history of the Chicago Bears.
• Aurora, home to Wayne Campbell, Garth Algar and Stan Mikita’s Donuts, is throwing their hat in the rings for the new stadium. I had an affinity for the previous president, and know very little about the current one, so I will refrain from weighing in on this situation. But I can’t understand why Kevin Warren is letting this become such a public spectacle. These deals are shady. They involve greasing politicians and screwing the taxpayer. They don’t involve nightly discussion on every local news station in Chicagoland.
• ACTUAL BEAR NEWS: Why is it every time a bear tries to devour some idiots who have trespassed on its territory, the news frames the human survival as some kind of heroic act? This article actually uses this headline, “Photographers Stand Their Ground as Bear Charges Them.” I’m sorry but, WHOSE ground? This bear didn’t walk into the photographer’s apartment and make a cup of tea.
• The Bears are currently +425 to win the NFC North, the third worst odds in the division, only slightly ahead of the Packers. And they strike me as undervalued, not because of the team’s strength but because of the weakness around them. Every year I do multiple eight division winner parlays. I’ll have the Bears in several.

Enjoy the weekend! If you drink, don’t drive. With the availability of Ubers now, there is simply no excuse to put folks in harm’s way due to your negligence. Once the alcohol hits your lips, your hands shouldn’t hit the steering wheel. It is a rule that works.

The first draft pick Ryan Poles made is going to be among the keys to the team having a successful 2023 season. There is no question Kyler Gordon’s rookie campaign got off to a horrendous start. He was injured for much of camp and, apparently, had a target on his back when he returned to the lineup. In the Bears’ first three games, nearly half of the passing yards the team gave up came with Gordon in coverage.

But he got better and better and there’s reason to think that improvement will continue.

After allowing 305 yards in coverage the first three games, Gordon allowed just 459 the rest of the season. In five of the next 11 games, he held the receivers he was covering to 25 yards or fewer, while intercepting three passes and allowing two touchdowns.

There are going to be two keys for the Bears to get the most out of Gordon this year and both should be easily obtainable.

The first is already a stated goal – to play him strictly in the slot. Most of Gordon’s rookie snaps came in the slot, where he lined up 431 times compared to 295 outside, according to Pro Football Focus. Gordon allowed 41 catches on 45 targets with two touchdowns and two interceptions as a slot defender. The passer rating (107.8) allowed still isn’t impressive, but passer ratings aren’t necessarily a good way to judge slot defenders. Of the 24 players who had 200 or more coverage snaps in the slot, 13 allowed passer ratings above 100. Indianapolis’ Kenny Moore allowed a rating of 121.1 last year.

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Dear DBB,

How else could I start

My term on this great website

But with a Haiku?

I’m still in shock that this is happening. For those that don’t know, my name is Robert Schmitz and my journey to writing this blog post began with me chattering so ceaselessly about Chicago’s professional football team in 2018 that my wife pushed me to start a podcast “so that you can find someone else to talk to about this”. That podcast became Bear With Me, and after recording 3 episodes and posting them to Windy City Gridiron’s Fanposts section, Lester Wiltfong Jr. brought me aboard and I joined a team of three podcasts that, within a month, became just one (mine).

I didn’t know anything about football at the time, but I thought I did! And as I covered the Bears for my first season in 2019, I slowly found out that my preseason Super Bowl predictions were nothing but a sham. Mitch wasn’t “the guy” and, as it turned out, neither was Matt Nagy. It was a heartbreaking season, like so many other bad Bears’ seasons we’ve endured since 2006, but worse was that I really thought I knew football well enough to have seen the bad news coming — I didn’t. And because of that, I had spent the entire offseason hyping up Bears fans just like my younger self about the dawning of a dominant Bears age that never came. Just like my younger self, those fans felt the door to a dynasty slam shut in their face. That’s a visceral feeling.

I took being that wrong personally. I still do (or, at least I try to). And now, through detailed study of everything from All-22 footage to the innerworkings of advanced NFL metrics, my aim is to scratch and claw every day in search of new Bears understandings, new Bears insights, and new ways to fall in love with the game we’re all so passionate about.

I don’t expect everything I write to be perfect, but I guarantee you I’m going to try my best to unearth new truths and new viewpoints about this great team while consistently showing you the work that led me to those answers. I’ll use videos, audio (podcasts), twitter posts, anything I can to help build the best blog posts possible for your discussion — that’s where you come in, because you and I are a team as we build this site together.

Every post will create discussion, and that discussion will create community. That community fosters intense camaraderie, something Bears fans can never get enough of — after all, we all remember who we commiserated with after the Double Doink. I want that camaraderie for every Bears fan that doesn’t yet realize that no matter who they are or where they are, there’s always a group of wonderful people they can discuss their team with only a few clicks away.

I don’t expect you to agree with me all the time, but frankly our discussions would be boring if you did. Let’s build something awesome together.

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Still working out some kinks with Robert’s login.

After looking forward to adding a Center all offseason, fans may have been surprised to see Cody Whitehair named the #Bears starter — I was!

But after diving into his tape, this move makes a LOT of sense. I break down Cody, Musty, and Center as a whole:https://t.co/a5JuV555LQ

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) June 26, 2023

A self demotion.

for going haiku crazy.

warrants a haiku.

For 18 years, this website has operated with a singular editorial voice. And it is time to acknowledge that voice has gotten stale.

Maybe it was writing the 50th haiku of this calendar year. Maybe it was waking one morning, realizing I had nothing for the site, and just embedding some random tweet. Whatever the case, it has become clear to me that this site I love so much is in desperate need of a new vision and a modern approach. Enter Robert K. Schmitz, who will become our second editor-in-chief on July 10th.

I have admired Robert’s work, mostly on Twitter and YouTube, for several years. He possesses a unique voice, detailed and passionate, and has mastered multiple formats with which he delivers that voice. His tape study videos are the best I’ve seen. His engagement with fans is measured, balanced and often quite funny.  He’s not a “hot take” guy. He’s not one of these Bill Simmons rip-offs, writing columns like How the Chicago Bears are Like Your Ex-Girlfriend. He’s not someone who approaches sports with a mocking tone. For a long time, I debated bringing him onto the DBB roster, but I always thought a lateral move was beneath him. Now, it’s his show.

But I’m not going anywhere. I am simply moving upstairs. I’m a McCaskey now. The Blogger Emeritus. I will continue to operate the DBB Twitter handle. My game previews, which are about 3% football content these days, will still arrive each Friday during the season. And when I have something interesting to say, I’m still going to use this platform to say it. But the content on this site, day-to-day, will be completely under Robert’s control. In order for him to make DBB his own, I must give him full autonomy. (And I must admit, I’m incredibly excited to watch the Chicago Bears without a notebook in front of me.)

I’m 41 years old, and I’m both a young and old 41-year-old. I still have the passion and enthusiasm I had when I was a kid, especially when it comes to the Chicago Bears, to the cinema, to learning and writing. But I’m also an antiquated curmudgeon, set in my ways, unwilling to adapt. In order for DBB (the site) to maintain its relevance moving forward, it cannot continue to be led by someone who has no interest in All-22 tape or the NFL Draft. Robert’s arrival is not about me stepping away from the site. Robert’s arrival is about ensuring DBB, this passion project, continues to grow.

The future is bright around here.

We are a few weeks away from football practices starting. Some stadium drama, but not much.

• TRIB: Alice Hoffman believes the city of Chicago should give the Bears full control over upgrading Soldier Field in an effort to keep the club in the city. The last refurbishments were hampered by mayoral oversight and financial limitations. Would this gesture be enough to keep the Bears on the lakefront? Doubtful. Several owners believe NFL franchise values are beginning to plateau and they want the Bears to own their own land, and their own building.
• SUN TIMES: David Roeder believes there is starting to be momentum on the city side, and the reason might be the potential development dollars slated for the areas near the stadium.
• DAILY HERALD: David Shaw writes about the potential breakout star for the Bears in 2023, Gervon Dexter.
• ACTUAL BEAR NEWS: A mother bear and three clubs entered a home. Hear the 911 call.
• THE ATHLETIC: Is it too early to predict the 53-man roster for the coming season? Not for Kevin Fishbain. (Side note: it seems the Bears beat was unaffected by the first round of Athletic layoffs. I would imagine most NFL beats will be just fine short-term.)
• STAY TUNED. Next week, I’ll be making one of the more substantial announcements in DBB history. Exciting things on are on the horizon.