In 2005 Lovie Smith’s Chicago Bears won the NFC North without an offense for fourteen weeks. They won games 9-7 (Washington), 10-6 (Baltimore), 13-3 (Carolina) and 13-10 (Tampa) prior to Rex Grossman’s triumphant return from injury in prime time against the Atlanta Falcons. In 2006 Lovie’s boys allowed 7 points or less in four of their first five games but looked far more human after Denny Green’s Cardinals proved the Bears were who he thought they were on a Week Six trip to Arizona.

The 2012 Chicago Bears are the best defensive group of Lovie Smith’s tenure. And if they stay healthy the 2012 Chicago Bears are legitimate contenders to play in that big ballgame in New Orleans come February.

It starts at corner, believe it or not. The position often believed to be an afterthought in Lovie’s cover-2 shell has become this vintage’s bread and butter. After Tim Jennings played at an All-Pro level for the month of September, Peanut Tillman capped off a magnificent three-week run against the Detroit Lions by shutting down the league’s best receiver. With Charles Woodson hitting the infirmary for the next six weeks I could also make a serious argument that DJ Moore is the most consistent nickel back in the game (and certainly in the NFC North).

At safety, I lean on Zach Zaidman. Here is a direct Tweet from the man:

In 12 games with the Conte/Wright starting safety tandem, #Bears defense has 22 INTs and only 9 passing TDs allowed.

After a decade of Kevin Paynes, Al Afalavas (apparently still IN the NFL) and Brandon McGowans it appears Lovie Smith has found a pair of safeties he entrusts to positions themselves 18-22 yards off the ball. But last night we saw just how flexible these two guys can be. Major Wright made several excellent edge-seals in the run game and Chris Conte may very well be the best blitzing option the Bears have if he can keep his balance when unabated to the quarterback.

The front seven is ferocious. Last night with safeties lined up at the Art Institute the Lions were unable to mount anything resembling a running attack. Lance Briggs is the best pure linebacker in the sport, Brian Urlacher is coming back…slowly and all eight guys in the defensive line rotation are capable of getting to the quarterback on every single play. (I think Shea McClellin is going to be an absolute star in this system for years to come.)

They have allowed fewer points than any team in the league by a wide margin. They have turned the takeaway into their own private art form. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli mixes looks and personnel groups just enough to confound opposing quarterbacks. They do everything well and they do just about everything better than the rest of the NFL.

We were told by David Haugh and some other Chicago columnists this would be the year offensive football lit the torch and led the angry mob to kill the monster. Not so fast my friends. This is a defensive town. This is a defensive team. And they are Lovie’s best.

Five final thoughts:

1. It was requested this be the game thread photo for all prime time contests after its success against the Dallas Cowboys. We’re sticking with superstition and letting silly bear in cowboy hat rule the night one more time.
2. Stopping Calvin Johnson is always an adventure but not a requisite for beating the Lions. The Bears need to focus their attention on stopping the second (Burleson) and third (Scheffler, Pettigrew, Young) options for Matt Stafford. Calvin Johnson is going to get his. Make sure nobody else does.
3. Test this secondary on early downs. Detroit has a good run-stopping defense so best to avoid worthless first-down carries that puts the offensive line on their heels.
4. Devin Hester can conceivably win this game on his own if Jim Schwartz gives him that opportunity.
5. If this game is played in a downpour I truly don’t know who it favors. I don’t foresee either team finding success in the run game so we may find ourselves in a field position/kicking battle. At home, I still like the Bears quite a bit in that situation.

Bear down.

Amazingly the Bears have played on only THREE of the first SEVEN NFL Sundays. Since the last preseason game there have been three 10+ day gaps between games. It’s led to me filling a lot of column space with tee shirt sales and contest posts.

No such problem today. Today we preview tonight’s Bears v. Lions match-up with Free Press beat writer and friend of the blog, Dave Birkett. Dave’s great. Give it a listen.

Rooting interests:

• Can St. Louis hold their own against a potentially-surging Packers team at home? Here’s hoping.
• I’m keeping my eyes on Minnesota even though I don’t quite buy them as a playoff contender. I’d like to see Arizona take them down a peg or two today.
• And why not root for Bob Griffin and company to take out the Giants in Jersey? The Giants are the scariest team in the league, if you ask me, and I don’t want them around.

My predictions. I have no conviction for them.

• Buffalo 20, Tennessee 14
• Cleveland 16, Indianapolis 14 (Upset!)
• Green Bay 30, St. Louis 17
• Minnesota 13, Arizona 10
• New York Giants 31, Washington Redskins 30
• New Orleans 24, Tampa Bay 20
• Dallas 34, Carolina 24
• Houston 28, Baltimore 20
• Oakland 17, Jacksonville 13
• New England 33, New York Jets 13
• Pittsburgh 20, Cincinnati 17 (OT)

Today is our seventh NFL Sunday. The Bears have played on three of them.

Tee Shirt Sales

Go and support the site, buy a tee shirt and show a Bears fan you love them. To do so, CLICK HERE.

Picks Contest Reminder.

If you have not entered the contest by now you are ineligible to win the contest. To see a the current standings after five weeks, CLICK HERE. We will update the standings again in three weeks or so.

Picks Contest Prize.

You’ll be invited as special guest of DaBearsBlog to this year’s Round One Draft Party on Thursday night, April 25th at Cortland’s Garage in Bucktown. The prize includes:

• Accommodation for draft night at The Willows Hotel, Lakeview. To see the hotel, CLICK HERE. I’ll also be in the hotel and will gladly take you for a drink at the local spot Monsignor Murphy’s if you so choose.
• DaBearsBlog will cover the open bar for you and a +1 at the event.
• Two automatic entries into the ticket contest giveaway that evening. (We’ll announce the particular game and details once the schedule is released next spring.)
• A pair of 2012 DaBearsBlog tee-shirts.

*Sadly we’ve removed the Lou Malnati’s gift card for now due to some issues that have arisen. I am working on them and will have either the Malnati’s card restored or something in its place.

(Home team in CAPS)

BUFFALO -3 Tennessee

MINNESOTA -6 Arizona

INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 Cleveland

HOUSTON -7 Baltimore

Green Bay -5 ST. LOUIS

Dallas -2 CAROLINA

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 Washington

New Orleans -3 TAMPA BAY

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 New York Jets

OAKLAND -4 Jacksonville

Pittsburgh -1.5 CINCINNATI

I need a rebound selection to keep pace with the juggernaut that is Crown and oddly the teams I like I’ve already used. (Who invented this game anyhow?) So I’m taking the COWBOYS. It’s risky but I like it.

For actual gambling, here’s a three-team teaser: Patriots -4.5, Cowboys +4 and Ravens +13.

The Bears have an opportunity Monday night against the Detroit Lions to cement their position on the NFC’s top shelf. If they win I have no doubt they’ll enter the second half of the 2012 campaign at no worse than 6-2 (preferably 7-1) and be primed to play ballgames in January. I think they do it.

WHY DO I LIKE THE CHICAGO BEARS THIS WEEK?

• I always like the Chicago Bears.

PERTINENT STATISTICS

• The Detroit Lions are the 2nd ranked offense in terms of yards-per-game and 12th in points.
• Their defense is 9th in yards-per-game and 24th in points. (One would think this discrepancy has something to do with their porous coverage units on specials.)
• Their always-talking pass rushers have been one of the disappointing units in the sport, registering only 9 sacks thus far this season.
• The biggest statistical advantage the Bears have going in: they are +9 in the turnover battle. Detroit is -1.

TWO GUYS PRIMED FOR BIG NIGHTS

• Julius Peppers is the anchor of the Bears defensive line but he has yet to have one of those “I am unblockable” games. Matt Stafford was forced from the pocket a lot (early) against the Philadelphia Eagles. Let’s see if Lions rookie Riley Reiff can handle Pep the way he seemingly handled Jason Babin.

• Devin Hester is one of the biggest Monday Night Football performers in Bears history and he continued that trend with his diving touchdown grab against the Cowboys a few weeks back. I have written that Hester has looked ordinary in the return game thus far in 2011. The Lions are the worst kick covering team in the league. If they send the ball his way, they will pay dearly.

MORE ANALYSIS, PLEASE? SURE.

• The Detroit receiving corps is a nightmare match-up for the Bears and pretty much any other secondary. Calvin Johnson is arguably the best receiver in the sport (unfair to rule out Larry Fitzgerald because he has no QB). Nate Burleson is a solid second option and has had success against Chicago. The tight ends – Tony Scheffler & Brandon Pettigrew – will attempt to own the middle of the field while forcing Brian Urlacher to run sideline-to-sideline. If the Bears don’t pressure Stafford consistently, he will move the ball.
• That being said you’d need to look long and hard to find a pair of Bears corners simultaneously playing as well as Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. If you’re going to face Calvin Johnson this is the time to do so.
• The Lions can’t run the ball. They try but they can’t do it and Mikel Leshoure doesn’t seem the kind of back to light up Soldier Field in prime time against a defense playing this well.
• I do think the Lions will do a nice job on the Bears running game. They held Shady McCoy to 1.6 yard per carry. This game will need to be won by Jay Cutler.

THRIVE/SURVIVE

•  Thrive: It is time for Jay Cutler to have his night. Against this horrendous secondary and with a confident Brandon Marshall, Cutler should be able to have one of those 100+ quarterback rating/300 yards passing nights in front of the home fans.
• Survive. DJ Moore. The Lions starting having a great deal of success by sending Calvin Johnson into the slot and running him across the field. Unless LoveRod decide to pin Peanut to Megatron all night one might expect Moore to be man-to-man with monstrous receiver at several pivotal junctures throughout the game.

PREDICTION

What scares me about Detroit is their passing game and defensive lines are capable of getting hot and controlling the pace of a game. But they were beaten by the Eagles and Mike Vick/Andy Reid decided to let them back in the game. No quarterback is better with a big lead than Cutler and I think the Bears win by double-digits.

Chicago Bears 27, Detroit 17

If you don’t listen to Cam’s analysis each week, you’re making a mistake. He is technical, detailed and we have a lot of fun.

On this week’s show he dissects the specific challenges the Detroit offense poses, states how the game will hinge upon Jennings/Moore winning one-on-one match-ups, breaks down the importance of Conte being technically sound to protect against Calvin Johnson beating the Bears over the top and illustrates the demeanor of a Lovie defender when the defense goes soft at the end of halves.

Bonus video:

Here is some analysis from the Eagles perspective on how the Philadelphia secondary collapsed (thanks to some nifty coaching decisions) against the Lions late.

TEE SHIRT SALES ARE PICKING UP…

…but we have to keep the deadline sturdy at October 31st. Halloween night. Go ahead and get yours ordered today to ensure you have one for the Bears fan you love come Christmas or Chanukah or whatever the hell religious thing you happen to enjoy. To order the shirt, CLICK HERE. They have made their way around the country and they’re pretty terrific.

Rev    Izzy

BILL BARNWELL: BEARS ARE BEST TEAM IN NFL

I have tried my hardest to hate everything associated with Grantland – outside the brilliant Monday podcast from Simmons and Cousin Sal. But Bill Barnwell has written some of the smartest pieces on the Bears I’ve seen from a member of the “national” media. I don’t much care where any club is ranked in October but the analysis is sound.

Here’s the entirety of his piece calling the Bears the best in the game:

Yes, that’s right, the Bears. The same Bears who capitulated in Green Bay in Week 2 and briefly became a national punch line because Jay Cutler threw four interceptions. That’s a rough loss, but it also came in a game where Matt Forte left with an injury during the opening drive of the second half. That forced the Bears to change their offense on the fly and integrate Michael Bush into the starting lineup without many practice reps. As you might expect, the Bears are significantly better with Forte around; he’s averaged a full 4.7 yards per carry this year, well ahead of backups Bush (3.6 yards per pop) and Kahlil Bell (2.7). When Forte is around, there’s nothing the Bears don’t do well. They’re proficient running the ball, adequate throwing it, and well above-average in all facets of defense and special teams. The emergence of Henry Melton and Shea McClellin as secondary pass rushers has freed up space for Julius Peppers, while Tim Jennings has had a career year in five games at cornerback: He’s set or tied career highs in interceptions (four) and passes defended (10) with 11 games left to go.

And while everybody else has a close call or two on their résumé, the Bears have been dominant in their four wins this season. In their three wins against average-or-better competition — the Colts, Cowboys, and Rams — Chicago won by a minimum of 16 points. Their one game against a cream puff, the Jaguars, resulted in a 41-3 shellacking. Every other team on this list, besides perhaps the Texans, had at least one game in which a change on one play would turn their win into a loss. That hasn’t been true for the Bears. They’ve had some luck in producing five defensive touchdowns in five games this year, but the defense would still be good and the margins of victory would still be impressive without the bonus touchdowns from the defense.

If you want to hop on the Bears bandwagon (a place where I admittedly have to hide, myself), now’s the time. Over the next three weeks, Chicago is home for games against the Lions and Panthers before traveling to Tennessee. At that point, the Bears might very well be 7-1, but their schedule will become something resembling punishment: Their next six games include matchups against the Seahawks (thankfully, in Chicago), Texans, Packers, 49ers, and a home-and-home with the Vikings. They might not have the best record in football by the time they’re through with that month and a half of hell, but if they can go 3-3 or 4-2 across that stretch, I wouldn’t budge them from this spot.

Of course, it also probably says something about how flawed even the league’s best teams are that the team I chose for the top spot on this list is the one that was out of sight and on a bye this week. The Bears could very well lose to the Lions next Monday night and create an AFC East–esque logjam in the NFC North, and we’ll all have to revisit this whole conceit again. Until that upset happens, the best team in football resides in the Windy City.

I think his last point may be his wisest one. The Bears must beat the Lions Monday night at home and cement their position in the NFC North. A loss will create a wild final ten weeks of the season.

ARGO IS GREAT. JUST PLAIN GREAT.

And it features my buddy and diehard Chicago Bears fan Christopher Denham. (When not moonlighting in Hollywood pictures, Mr. Denham can be found at Josie Woods Pub on Sundays. Go see it.

DABEARSBLOG IS HEADED TO THE MUSIC CITY

DJ Noah Brier (co-founder of this here feast) and I will be heading to Nashville for the Bears vs. Titans contest on Sunday, November 4th. If you’re planning to be down there drop me an email to jeff@dabearsblog.com and maybe we can coordinate a Honky Tonk locale for Bears fans to gather pre or post-game.

How different do you think the Bears would look right now if Jerry Angelo were still GM?

David M. Evanston, IL

JH: Well, for one, I don’t see any way Brandon Marshall is currently in a Bears uniform. It just wasn’t Jerry’s approach to (1) acknowledge deficiencies on the Bears receiving corps or (2) make a splashy trade for improvement at the position. Does he draft Alshon Jeffery? Perhaps. Does he sign Michael Bush? Perhaps. His signing of Chester Taylor leads one to think he values the backup running back.

The defensive starting lineup would look exactly the same. But would they have added depth pieces like Hayes and Hayden?

______________________________

Hey Jeff,

Why do you hate pop culture references so much?  Every time you write about staying away from them I feel like I’m missing out on a good joke, go for a few this year!  Works for Sports Guy as you know…

Great blog, thanks!

-Perno

JH: In movies and theatre, I despise pop culture references because they immediately date the work. Think about movies like The 40 Year-Old Virgin and basically everything Judd Apatow is involved in cinematically. Ten years from now nobody is going to understand a thing coming out of the mouths of those characters. The great works – in any artistic medium – are the ones lasting far beyond their release date.

For instance, watch this scene. If you eliminate the two pop culture references the scene works just as well and might be even funnier. But nobody on earth will know what Maid in Manhattan is come nine minutes from now, never mind nine years.

As for Simmons, I actually like him a lot and can’t help admire his career. But I just choose to be old school in my approach to writing about sports. I’d prefer trying to find interesting ways to contextualize games I love that don’t involve comparisons to Real Housewives programs.

_____________________________

Hey Jeff,

Where do the Bears look in the first round of the draft?

Teddy M. Springfield, IL

JH: Why are so many fans fixated on draft needs for a 4-1 team? I got three or four emails asking me about April. Who cares where the Bears are looking to improve in April? I want to see them improve in October! That being said I don’t see the Bears targeting positions in April. I think they’ll take the best players on the board each round.

______________________________

Why don’t you like fantasy football? You’ve never really explained it.

Many People, From Everywhere

JH: I played fantasy football for many years and was very successful at it. My brother and I were in a league of high-powered New Jersey attorneys, we drafted at Houlihans in Secaucus and Marshall Faulk essentially won titles for me every year. The last year I played was 2002, right as fantasy football was blowing up around the country.

Why did I stop? I started hating the types of football conversations I was having. I still hate them. I hated seeing individuals running from game to game to see who scored touchdowns but not care a lick about the team got into position to score the touchdown or what the context of the touchdown was. People pretend fantasy football has made football fans more intelligent but it absolutely has not. Just because a guy or lady knows stats doesn’t mean he/she knows sports.

In 2005 Noah, the Reverend and I launched this site. And I didn’t need anything else.

__________________________________

How important are the next three games for the Chicago Bears?

Rob. Arlington Heights

JH: They are pivotal to this Bears season.

Detroit. I watched every snap of Lions v. Eagles Sunday and the only reason the Lions won is because – inexplicably – Andy Reid and Juan Castillo seemed to adapt a “make Calvin Johnson beat us” approach in the fourth quarter. (Spoiler alert: He did.) The Lions are not very good, outside of a talented front four on defense and the Stafford-to-Johnson connection. The Bears have a prime opportunity in primetime, at home, to put their season to bed.

Carolina. Any time Steve Smith is on the other sideline against the Bears that team has a shot. But Cam Newton has been awful in 2012 and the nobody has been better than the Bears defense. With Aaron Rodgers and the Packers about to surge offensively, the Bears need to show their championship meddle and beat an inferior team in their ballpark.

Tennessee. There’s a major issue facing the Bears in Tennessee: Noah and I will be sitting together in the stadium and that’s been a cursed combination. Otherwise, they should win.

The Bears can be no worse than 6-2 heading into the back eight. But they should be 7-1.

EMAIL ME YOUR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS. MAYBE I’LL DO ANOTHER ONE OF THESE LATER IN THE WEEK.

Pictured above: the Reverend, the blog tee shirt and Izzy Idonije.

Rooting interests:

• Houston over Green Bay. Obviously. This Packers team simply can’t lose enough for me.
• Washington over Minnesota. I’m still shocked I have to keep track of who the damn Vikings are playing. I had them getting the first pick in the draft this year. The Vikings – outside the Favre years – have never really bothered me and I’d far rather battle them for a division title.
• Philadelphia v. Detroit is an interesting one. I am going to root for Mike Vick and the Eagles even though that they may come back to haunt me in December due to the wild card implications. Detroit has just become the most unlikable group of individuals in the league.
• I’m pulling for the 49ers over the Giants because I believe the 49ers are going to run away with the NFC West now and I would be terrified to see the Giants, and those guaranteed-to-wake-up-pass-rushers, in the post-season.
• It’s also an easy week to have fun rooting AFC over NFC as there are a bunch of match-ups. You want Patriots over Seahawks, Dolphins over Rams, Bills over Cardinals and – the longest of long shots – Raiders over Falcons. Nobody thinks wild card race in October…except for me.

Enjoy what should be a terrific, stress-free day of football games.