Haikuesday: Waiting For The End To Come
If the Bears’ visit to Green Bay was intended to represent a benchmark for their 2023 season’s progress, they failed their final exam quite emphatically.
Chicago’s report cards are currently under review and will be returned to our students throughout the next week. Until then, let’s review yesterday’s season finale one last time.
Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s latest loss here:
Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?
I.
Always.
Like.
THE.
Chicago.
Bears.
I was asked by @AlexBryant93, as I tweeted from behind the sticks, what mixed drink Justin Fields might be. So, I spent some time ruminating on the topic.
First, let’s rule some drinks out. Fields is not your classic NFL quarterback so we can rule out the classics like the Old Fashioned, Manhattan, Martini, Vodka tonic, etc. (Is there a more vodka tonic quarterback than Kirk Cousins?)
Fields seems to struggle with the simple stuff. He doesn’t always hit the layups. So, I would argue he’s not a vodka soda, or vodka cran, or even a Jameson ginger.
But he’s explosive, and fun. He’s got an electric deep-ball arm and might be the most dynamic runner in the game. So, I want a fun alcohol in the conversation. I also want something with an element not found in any other mixed cocktail.
And so it is decided. Justin Fields is an espresso martini. 2 oz of Mr. Black coffee liqueur. 2 oz of freshly made espresso. 1 oz of simple syrup. A dash of bitters. And shake the shit out of it. That extra element? A few espresso beans sprinkled atop the drink as garnish.
(And if you’re ever at PJ Horgan’s in Sunnyside, Queens, I make the best espresso martini in town.)
Why would the year end any other way?
At this point, all that’s left is to see how the chips fall.
Nick & I take you through the matchups, the stakes, the ins, and the outs of what promises to be a massive Bears season finale in Lambeau on the latest episode of Bear With Us — check it out below.
Your Turn: How are you feeling about this weekend’s game?
Chicago’s season will come to a close in Green Bay on Sunday, when the Bears will finish without a winning record for the 5th season in a row and 10th time in the last 11 years. Since the Bears are already out of the playoff race, the game itself is fairly inconsequential for them, but the offseason that follows it will be hugely important, as Chicago will have to decide whether to stay the course or make a change at both head coach and quarterback.
I already examined Chicago’s decision about Fields yesterday, so today I want to take a look at head coach Matt Eberflus. The decision on Eberflus will actually come first, as the Bears will likely officially announce whether he is fired or returning for 2024 in the 1st half of next week.
Through the 1st four weeks of the season, the Bears were 0-4, had been outscored by 62 points, and looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Since then, they are 7-5, have outscored their opponents by 57 points, and look like a dangerous team. It’s a real credit to Eberflus that he kept the team focused and resilient so they could bounce back from their disastrous start to the season.
However, there are 2 points to consider here:
The other main point in Eberflus’ favor is that Chicago’s defense has gotten really good since he took over calling plays. It took a few weeks for him to find his footing, as Eberflus took control of the defense in week 2 but the turnaround didn’t start until week 5. From weeks 1-4, Chicago’s defense gave up 29 points/game (which would be 31st in the NFL over the full season) and ranked 31st in expected points added (EPA) and 26th in success rate. Since week 5, Chicago’s defense has given up 17.4 points/game (which would be 3rd in the NFL over the full season) and ranked 3rd in EPA and 6th in success rate.
The Bears still play one more game this season, but not much is riding on it. They’ve already been eliminated from the playoffs and locked in the #1 pick in the draft thanks to their offseason trade with the Carolina Panthers. Beating Green Bay to keep them out of the playoffs on Sunday would be fun, but it doesn’t ultimately matter for the Bears’ future.
Accordingly, it’s time to shift attention to the monumental offseason that Chicago faces. The Bears are in a great position right now. They showed in 2023 that they are ready to compete, yet they also hold two 2024 1st round draft picks – including the aforementioned 1st overall pick – and have significant salary cap space (currently slotted for $62M, 8th most in the NFL, but both of those numbers will change significantly as teams make cuts and sign players to extensions).
Chicago has all the ingredients of a team poised to become a significant factor in the NFC over the next few seasons, provided they utilize their resources at hand well. That work will begin this offseason with two franchise-altering decisions: what to do at quarterback and head coach. I want to examine both of those decisions this week, starting with QB Justin Fields today and moving to head coach Matt Eberflus tomorrow.
Let’s start by noting that Fields has made clear improvements as a passer each season, as you can see in the table below.
A quick glance at these stats shows that Fields has developed into roughly a league average passer this year, though he still takes sacks at a higher than average rate. When you factor in his rushing ability, that has real value. Fields has shown that he is clearly a starting QB in the NFL.
With that in mind, let’s compare Fields directly to his peers. While the table above looked at all passes thrown in the NFL this year, the table below shows how Fields compares only to the 31 QBs who have thrown the ball at least 230 times. His ranks compared to these peers are shown in parentheses, and any ranks in the top 25% are highlighted in green, while any in the bottom 25% are highlighted in red. A few notes:
