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Favored at Home Again: The Penultimate Game Preview of the 2023 Season

| December 29th, 2023


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.


The Football Bit

I got nothing.

How many times can I write the same thing about Justin Fields?

How many times can I write the same thing about Matt Eberflus?

Sometimes a season just needs to end and that is definitively the case for the 2023 Chicago Bears. This season needs to end, and the organization needs to make their decisions at quarterback and coach. Nothing will change this coming Sunday. Nothing will change the Sunday after.

I hope the Bears beat the Falcons because winning is more fun than losing and they already are guaranteed a top two pick in the draft. That is the entirety of what’s at stake at Soldier Field, a potentially fun afternoon.


The Movie Bit

Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is one of the most remarkable films I have ever seen.

First, a plot summary, in the briefest sense. The film is a domestic drama, but the domicile in question is the home of Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss, situated directly outside the high walls of the concentration and extermination camp in question. Throughout the film, we engage the Höss family as if they were any other German family, i.e. the stress of visiting in-laws, the drama of a work transfer, etc. We watch in detail as Rudolf, the family’s patriarch, locks the doors and turns out the lights each evening. We see birthday cakes and visits to the local creek for recreation.

We never see the atrocities of the camp. But throughout the film, we hear constant reminders of what is happening inside those walls. Gun shots. Screams. The most horrifying cinematic soundscape I can remember.

There will be time, years, to discuss this film further. Glazer might be the modern Kubrick; he’s made three other films (Sexy Beast, Birth, Under the Skin) and each is brilliant. But for now, I want to use this space to encourage you to find Zone of Interest and sit with it. It is a film that questions the very nature of how we construct narratives of history, and how those narratives are consumed. Glazer has said the film is “not a history lesson, it’s a warning.” That warning haunts me.

This is the film of the year.

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My New Year’s Resolution? Beat The Atlanta Falcons

| December 28th, 2023


Matt Eberflus continues his final stand this Sunday as he takes on an Atlanta Falcons team that finds itself in a similar position to your Chicago Bears — neither team controls their playoff destiny despite playing in lackluster divisions, both offenses added weapons in the offseason and have subsequently underperformed, but the play of each team’s defense has kept each team alive despite the turmoil on the other side of the ball.

Neither team can make the playoffs with a win this weekend… but both teams will likely be eliminated from contention with a loss. Thus, for both Matt Eberflus & Arthur Smith, this New Years’ Day matchup is do-or-die. That sets the stage for a riveting football game.

Nick and I dove deep into this matchup (and the current state of the Bears) within the latest episode of Bear With Us, including discussion topics like…

  • What went well against the Cardinals on offense? How did they score so easily early? What did Arizona do to curb the offense in the 2nd half?
  • Who played well on defense last week? Who played poorly?
  • Where do the Bears match up well with Atlanta on defense? What weak links in the Falcons’ offense can they exploit?
  • How does Chicago’s offense match up with Atlanta’s defense? What kind of day will this be for Chicago?
  • Holiday chatter & game score predictions
  • And much, much more…

It’s one of our best episodes yet — check it out and let me know what you think!

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Consequence of Blown Leads: Poles, Warren Face Risky Decisions at Coach, Quarterback

| December 26th, 2023


On Sunday, against the Arizona Cardinals, the Bears were exactly who they have been since Montez Sweat arrived in the middle of the 2023 season. They play terrific defense, at least for most of the game. Their quarterback is one of the most electric runners in the league, and also a mediocrity at every other element of the position. (Even Mark Sanchez was frustrated at the speed at which Fields processed the action.) Their head coach looks primed to let every big lead slip away, but this Sunday the opponent simply wasn’t up to the task. In a league where most teams reside in the middle of the pack, so do these Chicago Bears, and that was most everyone’s preseason expectation.

So why does this season feel like a disappointment?

The answers are simple: Denver, Detroit, Cleveland.

If the Chicago Bears, and their defensive head coach, simply held on to those three double-digit, fourth quarter leads in games where they were clearly the superior team, their record would be 9-6. They would be firmly in the postseason, threatening the Cowboys for the fifth seed and keeping the Lions honest at the top of the division. They would have overcome their embarrassing start to the season, a disaster on and off the field. They would have weathered a multigame stretch with a backup quarterback whose last start was against the Colorado School of Mines. To quote The Great British Bake Off‘s Prue Leith, this season would have been a “triumph.”

But it’s not. Now Ryan Poles and Kevin Warren have decisions to make, and those decisions will come down to a fundamental question: do they believe the coach and quarterback are capable of improvement? Objectively speaking, neither has been good enough in 2023 to warrant confidence in them moving forward. Confidence in them moving forward would require a belief in their potential, and both men have done enough to suggest they are capable of being winning assets for the franchise.

But is that a risk worth taking when you have the first pick in a QB-friendly draft? Is that a risk worth taking when Jim Harbaugh is refusing to sign a $100 million plus extension at Michigan because it requires him not flirting with the NFL this offseason?

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Welcome to Garbage Time: Cardinals at Bears Game Preview (and a Christmas Song Ranking Update!)

| December 22nd, 2023


Why Do I Like the Chicago Bears this Week?

I.

Always.

Like.

THE.

Chicago.

Bears.


Welcome to Garbage Time

Last week I cared very much about the outcome of the Chicago Bears game.

This week I don’t.

This team, the 2023 edition of the Chicago Bears, has no business being outside the playoffs. If they don’t blow three double-digit, fourth-quarter leads, they would be 8-6 and sizing up a winnable first-round matchup in Detroit come January. But because they don’t have it at quarterback, and they don’t have it at head coach, they are 5-9 and playing out the string.

This is not my casting a verdict on either Fields or Flus. I don’t care anymore, honestly. When it comes to Fields, it is the most boring discourse I’ve encountered since starting this project in 2005. Never has so much debate centered around a mediocre player. Chips down, I would likely move on from both men immediately after the season. But a strong finish, winning out, would give the Bears an 8-9 campaign, and that is exactly what I expected from this season. So, if this group reaches my preseason expectations, what rationale do I have for advocating their removal?

But that’s all these stretch games are, a chance for Fields and Flus to make something of a closing summation. They’ve called their witnesses, presented their evidence, and done their cross examinations. The trial is effectively over. Home Cardinals, home Falcons, at Packers are an opportunity for the coach and quarterback to restate their case to the jury – Ryan Poles, Kevin Warren, George McCaskey – one final time. And that is operating under the assumption that this particular jury has not already reached their decision. (Which, let’s be honest, would be hard to believe.)

This is garbage time. Draw conclusions from the results at your own peril.


Top Ten Christmas Songs (Updated 2023)

10. The Christmas Song, Nat King Cole’s iconic rendition

9. Back Door Santa, Clarence Carter

8. It Feels Like Christmas from Muppet Christmas Carol, Paul Williams

7. Donde Esta Santa Claus, Augie Rios

6. Peace on Earth/The Little Drummer Boy, David Bowie and Bing Crosby

5. Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas, Mel Torme’s rendition on the Home Alone soundtrack

4. December the Twenty Fifth from Scrooge, Leslie Bricusse (Correct!)

3. Hard Candy Christmas, Dolly Parton

2. Christmas Card from a Hooker in Minneapolis, Tom Waits

1. Fairytale of New York, The Pogues (RIP Shane)

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Previewing a Christmas Eve Dance with the Desert Birds

| December 21st, 2023


The playoff push may have ended before it started, but with 3 games remaining on Chicago’s schedule backs are truly against the wall now — Matt Eberflus now has three late-game collapses in a 2023 season where, had Chicago taken care of business with all three fourth-quarter leads, he’d have firm control of the NFC’s 6th seed & might be a weekend away from clinching a playoff spot.

It’s hard to imagine the powers that be at Halas Hall aren’t every bit as disappointed as we fans are, leaving three critical weeks for Eberflus to make his final statement — if his team finishes the year with three strong wins, they might just save their coach’s job.

Eberflus’ final stand begins this Sunday as he takes on a hapless Arizona Cardinals team that should be easy prey… but this is the NFL. Nothing’s ever easy, is it?

Nick and I dove deep into this matchup and the state of the Bears within the latest episode of Bear With Us, including discussion topics like…

  • What was Luke Getsy doing throughout that game in Cleveland? What could he have done better?
  • Who played well on defense last week? What went wrong at the end?
  • Where do the Bears match up well with Arizona on defense? What weak links in the Cardinals’ offense can they exploit?
  • How does Chicago’s offense match up with Arizona’s ragtag defense? Should this be a big day for Chicago?
  • A review of Matt Eberflus’ defense against the Lions, including the driving forces behind Chicago’s success.
  • Holiday chatter & fan Q&A
  • And much, much more…

It’s one of our best episodes yet — check it out and let me know what you think!

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Checking the Tape: Bears @ Browns

| December 19th, 2023

Happy All-22uesday, folks!

Tonight at 8PM CST I’ll be going through the Bears’ game as usual — come join for an evening of breakdowns & analysis of:

  • Where the Bears won on defense
  • Where the Bears lost on defense
  • Who’s to blame within Chicago’s offense?
  • And much, much more

See you there!

Editor’s Note: With Christmas approaching, this week may be a bit content light. Be sure to enjoy time with family and those around you this week!

Your Turn: How have your feelings changed about Sunday’s game over the last day?

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225 Comments

Three Strikes, You’re Out

| December 18th, 2023


For the 3rd time this season, the Chicago Bears held a 10+ point lead in the 4th quarter. For the 3rd time this season, they surrendered their lead and ultimately lost in regulation, with a final offensive rally falling flat.

Just like the Denver & Detroit games that predated their trip to Cleveland, ESPN’s analytics gave Chicago a 90+% of winning this game just as the 3rd quarter ended. But, just like those games, the Bears found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

These three games plainly hammer home the most frustrating part of the Bears’ 2023 season — the 5-9 Bears, currently the 5th-worst team in the NFL via draft order, are not a talentless bunch. They don’t lack playmakers, they don’t struggle to compete with the team across from them. If football games ended after the 3rd quarter, Chicago would be 8-6-1.

But, of course, that’s not how football works. NFL games are won & lost in the 4th quarter, and it tells you everything you need to know that the 2023 Chicago Bears have yet to win a game that weren’t already winning when they entered the 4th quarter. Combine that with yesterday’s NFL season record-tying third blown 10+ point lead in the 4th quarter, and you start to see a worrying trend — this roster has the talent to earn leads in this league, but it’s coaching staff can’t seem to close.

It’s never as simple as ‘just blaming the coaches’ — Robert Tonyan & Darnell Mooney dropped game-changing passes, TJ Edwards and Jaylon Johnson had opportunities to end the Browns’ early touchdown drive early via interceptions that got dropped, and Trent Taylor muffed two punts, with only one of those muffs coming back to bite him. The players need to execute, and everyone (including the quarterback) needs to own these rough results.

But fool me once against the Broncos, shame on you. Fool me twice in Detroit, shame on me. Fool me a third time in Cleveland, and I think it’s simple — with three strikes against him, Matt Ebeflus is likely out.

What that would mean for Justin Fields remains to be seen, but with Carolina’s pick looming large and Fields entering the 4th year of his rookie contract, I’d imagine the odds of him staying in Chicago under a new head coach are slim. If he wants to stay, he’ll have to prove it over these next 3 games.


The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly


The Good:

  • Chicago’s defense played unbelievably well and I’m heartbroken for them over the result. Montez Sweat has unlocked a turnover-hungry unit that’s getting contributions from everyone — Justin Jones got early pressure that led to an Eddie Jackson interception returned to the 1-yard-line, TJ Edwards dislodged a football that Tremaine Edmunds took back to the house, and even CB Tyrique Stevenson came up huge to steal points away from Cleveland after Trent Taylor’s second muff of the day. The defense made mistakes late, but ultimately scored (or directly led to scoring) nearly as many points as their opponent scored against them — it’s a shame Chicago’s offense couldn’t win this game for them. They’ve been outstanding.
  • Braxton Jones might be the real deal. Myles Garrett is too good to not affect the game across from him, but Chicago’s 5th round LT kept Garrett from logging even one QB Hit on the day. All-22 will paint a better picture of how well Braxton battled Garrett, but given that Justin Fields logged a 3.48 second time-to-throw on the day I have a feeling the tape will be kind to the Bears’ offensive line.
    • Update: This bullet is looking like a phantom memory, Braxton effectively gave up pressure all day. Not sure what I thought I saw, but I’ll know more on review later.

The Bad

  • You won’t win many games if you can’t score. Chicago finished the day with 3.4 yards per play, less than 250 yards of total offense, nine three-and-outs, and only two drives of 40 yards or more on the day. The run game struggled mightily and the passing game isn’t self-sustaining, so when the Bears weren’t ripping off chunk plays downfield they spent the day not doing much at all.
    • Luke Getsy has to own the Bears’ offensive disfunction, but Justin Fields shouldn’t be exempt from criticism — Fields may not have been the problem in Cleveland, but he wasn’t the solution either. That said, the All-22 will give us a much better picture of what happened on offense yesterday — did Fields pass on open looks downfield? Or did the Browns simply blanket the Bears’ WRs on a day where DJ Moore was clearly hobbled? We’ll find out tomorrow.

The Ugly

  • The future seems far too uncertain. It’s easy for me, a writer, to write pretty words about the failings of Chicago’s head coach, but do George McCaskey, Kevin Warren, and Ryan Poles see things that way? Surely they can’t be satisficed with an overperforming roster and an underperforming record, but with Eberflus finding major wins over divisional opponents recently I can’t help wondering if a spoonful of victory over the hapless Cardinals and Falcons would set the table for Matt’s retention following a big win in Green Bay.
    • In my opinion, if the Bears are going to consider drafting a new QB I’d rather they did so with a new HC in town. I’d love to see the organization do everything they can to support a rookie QB, including hiring the best offensive coaches available to surround their chosen signal-caller with competency & give him the best opportunity possible to succeed where no one else has. But do Eberflus’ defensive accolades help the Bears’ brass look past these consistent late-game failures? Only time will tell.

Postgame Podcast:

Nick and I recorded a podcast where we talked through the ups, the downs, the ins, and the outs of Chicago’s latest loss here:

Your Turn: How do you feel about yesterday’s game?

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