Quarter One

This game starts fast. Both of these offensive coaching staffs thrive on the two weeks of preparation and script out the first 15-20 plays to perfection. Tom Brady does it with his trademark short passing game, exploiting the Rams underneath with a ton of James White. Jared Goff hits the Pats secondary over the top. Call it Brandin Cooks for a 54-yard TD. Three possessions. Three touchdowns.

Score: 14-7 Patriots

Quarter Two

Things slow down. Both offenses try and get their running games established, to limited success. Goff makes the first major mistake as halftime approaches, tossing an interception to Stephon Gilmore, and setting up the Pats for an easy score and a comfortable half-time lead.

Score: 28-14 Patriots

Halftime

Shit.

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The best bar in Atlanta.

Thought 1. The Rams need a steady & consistent interior pass rush

Nobody pressures Brady from the perimeter because no quarterback in the history of the league is more comfortable stepping up quickly in the pocket and delivering the short-range bullet to a wide open, usually-white receiver. If your game plan to defend him is reliant upon edge pressure and disguised coverages (*cough* Vic Fangio *cough*) Brady will dice you up like a sous-chef working a garlic bulb.

You must put defenders in his face. And few teams are better equipped to do so than Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and these Rams. This game has career-defining potential for Donald.

Thought 2. Where the hell is Todd Gurley?

A few months back, the player Bill Belichick would have completely removed from this game would have been Todd Gurley. “Eliminate Gurley and force Jared Goff to beat us” might have been his rallying cry. And it would have been the correct approach. The Bears showed the league that if you take away the Los Angeles rushing attack and pressure Goff, you control the game.

But Gurley seems to have eliminated himself, unless you believe the injury fairy tale spewing out of the City of Angels. C.J. Anderson has somehow become every bit the horse but Anderson does not have anywhere near the game-changing explosiveness of a man many considered the best offensive weapon in the sport in, like, October! If the Rams are going to win this game, Gurley can’t be riding the stationary bike on pivotal possessions.

Thought 3. Return Men

Three names will be involved.

For the Rams, JoJo Natson.

For the Pats, Cordarrelle Patterson and Julian Edelman.

All three are capable of conjuring the kind of game-altering play that decides which team is holding the Lombardi at the end of the evening. (And all three rank in the top ten at all the relevant return statistics.)

Who will it be? Watch out for Patterson. If Greg the Leg gives him an opportunity to give the Pats an easy six, he may just do it.

Today’s offering is not meant to advocate gambling. I do advocate gambling because it’s a shit ton of fun but that’s not the intention of this particular column. Today, I will be showing you how to spend a mere $100 to greatly increase your enjoyment of another Super Bowl featuring the New England Patriots.

Bet 1

$15 on the game being decided by exactly 3 points (+375)

The Pats used to play three and four-point Super Bowls exclusively and this doesn’t feel like a game that can go wildly in any direction. Plus you’re getting almost 4-1 odds on the bet so why not? It’s also far more fun to root for close games.

Bet 2

$25 on over 56.5 points (-110)

Always bet the Super Bowl over. Who the hell wants to root for teams not to score, especially when you don’t care about the result? This is the most fun bet to place for a Super Bowl party because even those who don’t know/care what’s happening on the field will be excited to know every single point scored helps them win a little cash.

[Side note: If you have access to a book, legal or otherwise, always incorporate everyone at your Super Bowl party in at least one bet TOGETHER.]

Bet 3

$20 on no field goals in the second quarter (+240)

I have almost no rationale for this bet other than (a) it’s silly and (b) I think these are two coaches who will understand the uselessness of field goals in a game like this.

Bet 4

$40 on a team scoring in the final 3:30 of the game (-170)

By the fourth quarter a lot of non-football fans are checked out on the game. So this is the bet to get them re-motivated to focus on the television set. And since the assumption on this game is that it’ll be high-scoring and close, how is the game going to remain scoreless over the final three and a half minutes? It’s not. The odds aren’t great here so you’ll have to lay out some cheese. (I’m betting way more than $40 on this.)

Bobby Massie Inks Extension

Many folks around the Bears blogosphere (and beyond) like to DM me when players are negotiating (or thought-to-be negotiating) contracts. There are two reasons for this: (1) They know I have friends inside the building and (2) I’m rarely, if ever, going to publish the information myself before it becomes public. That is why I’m still able to acquire the information I do. But I’m usually happy to confirm stuff.

Here’s what I know about the Massie deal:

• During the season, several people inside the the Bears commented to me that Massie was playing at an outstanding level. Offensive linemen are very difficult for the average fan (and folks like PFF) to evaluate because it’s all about assignment football. When the Bears sat down and did their post-season roster evaluation they determined Massie was going to be impossible to bring back should he hit the open market, especially with tackle-needy teams like Buffalo and the New York Jets having buckets of money to spend.
• The money isn’t a big deal but it values Massie as one of the best right tackles in the sport. I have news for you. He was every bit that in 2018.
• The organization’s attention has now moved to their other in-house free agents: Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan.
  • Amos’ agents are pains in the ass and they passed on an extension last off-season, citing the PFF grades as reason the Bears were low-balling their client. Bears don’t view Amos as a top safety. And they won’t pay him like one.
  • Two things on Callahan: (1) He’s switched to Roquan Smith’s agents. (2) He’s got a chronic hip issue that he’s learned to manage over the last few years but that many inside the organization believe leads to his frequent injuries. The Bears want him back. The locker room loves him. But his health history and position make the deal tricky.

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Here are some of the responses to both our Kareem Hunt pieces this week. The reactions were varied and interesting. I am interested to read what ya’ll think of the situation and will be pulling from the comments to this post to create a second response post.

As you note, there are lots of folks in the league who’ve just not been caught – just like society as a whole. If Pace & Nagy believe that they can mentor this young man, then I’m willing to give them that opportunity.

— Kris 🐻⬇️ (@KrisArmstrong1) January 24, 2019

Was he drunk? – Maybe. If alcohol gets him there, he needed to lay it off. Didn’t.
Is he simply a “violent guy”? – Maybe. Should have figured it out after his first couple of “incidents” & done something about it. Didn’t.
He already had a 2nd, 3rd, …chance. Didn’t help.

— 23kew92n (@23kew92n) January 24, 2019

In response to Emily…

Very well said. No.

— Megan M (@mkeggers7) January 24, 2019

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Whataboutism is often associated with the Soviet political apparatus. Their concept was simple: we can rationalize anything we do on the world stage as long as someone, somewhere did something similar at some point. “Sure, we’re endorsing the imprisonment and murder of homosexuals in Chechnya, but what about the Americans banning trans people from their military?” Whataboutism doesn’t require facts and logic. A does not need equal B.

I bring up this concept because Whataboutism is going to be a primary defense for whichever team decides to sign Kareem Hunt in the coming months. “Yes, he’s done bad things but what about the Chiefs with Tyreek Hill? What about the Saints, Cardinals and Redskins with Adrian Peterson? What about the Bengals with Joe Mixon?” Nobody will defend the actions of the player. They will defend the team because, well, if other teams did it, why can’t we?

By now you’ve hopefully read Emily’s wonderful piece in this space on Wednesday, arguing for the Bears staying out of the Hunt market. Honestly, I fundamentally agree with much of what she wrote. But I thought it worthwhile to present the opposing view; an argument for giving Hunt a second chance and giving him that second chance with the Chicago Bears. And in presenting that case, there are three issues with which to deal.

Issue I. The Event, or What Was Recorded

Nobody could possibly make an argument defending the video above, which clearly shows Hunt in an altercation with a woman in a hotel hallway. There are many reports suggesting this woman verbally-assaulted Hunt with “the N-word”, and it sure looks like alcohol was fueling the festivities, but nothing excuses a man laying his hands (or boots) on a woman. Nothing.

And as Emily deftly pointed out, this was not an isolated incident. Hunt was actually involved in three separate violence-related altercations in 2018. But in none of the three instances were charges files against the running back and that means, without debate, he’ll be back in the league. He’ll likely face a short suspension in 2019 but those anticipating a substantial absence will disappointed.

Hunt is not Ray Rice. We’re not talking about a man who beat his wife or girlfriend. We’re talking about a man with a violent streak. This isn’t Whataboutism because there is a distinct difference between the behavior of Hunt and Greg Hardy, Tyreek Hill and Josh Brown – men who abused women with whom they were in relationships, i.e. domestic abusers. The difference? Hunt seems to fight EVERYBODY. He’s an angry young man.

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Data Entries: A Response

Data has done a tremendous job over the past two days breaking down the cap situation facing the Bears this off-season. But I disagree with some of his conclusions, primarily a single point.

The Bears had the best defense in the NFL in 2018 and exited the playoffs on Wildcard Weekend. There’s no doubt in my mind they can return to Wildcard Weekend without Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan on the roster. (The Eagles just made it a weekend further with Cre’von LeBlanc as their BEST corner.)

The immediate focus should be Bobby Massie. Is the right tackle one of the best in the league? Probably not. But he’s a very good starter and a solid veteran presence on the offensive line. Couple that with the great unknown beside him at right guard and it would seem pivotal for the Bears to not enter the 2019 season with the right side of their OL being a question mark. The offense has to make a jump in Year Two of Nagy. Continuity will be key.

Sign Massie.

Kareem Hunt

The Hunt situation is a delicate one. So next week both Emily and I will be writing full-length columns on the prospects of the Bears bringing him to Chicago.  I thought it was imperative to present a female perspective. But I also thought it was imperative to present an opinion with an historical, football-based context. We’ll do both.

The Mannelly Award

We’ve had fun with Pat Mannelly over the years, specifically naming this column space after his crazy decision in that Packers. But he’s one of the best long snappers in NFL history and now he’s trying to pave the way for the next generation of specialists. It’s very, very cool.

It is finally here! Together with @TheChrisRubio and Kevin Gold of @longsnapcom, we present to you The Patrick Mannelly Award presented to the top collegiate Long Snapper! For more information, please go to https://t.co/6lCzCYekfv pic.twitter.com/xOz3WuViRp

— Patrick Mannelly (@PatrickMannelly) January 15, 2019

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Thoughts Before the Press Conference

• Nobody should expect to hear Pace or Nagy address Cody Parkey’s future or the Today Show appearance. But both questions must be asked. What absolutely cannot be said today is “Parkey is our kicker next season.” This organization can no longer show blind, ignorant loyalty to an inadequate player.
• It’ll be interesting to hear how each man discusses Chuck Pagano’s addition. I suspect neither was thrilled with the game Vic Fangio called against the Eagles so it won’t be surprising for them to signal what Pagano will change on that side of the ball.
• The Kareem Hunt conversation is going to get started soon enough. Wonder if it is today. Reclamation projects are very possible in this league (See: Hill, Tyreek) and it is unlikely Hunt won’t be in the NFL next season. Unlike Ray Rice – whose career was already essentially over at the time of his incident – Hunt will only be 25 years old when the 2019 season kicks off.

Thoughts During & After

• The tone was established with Pace’s opening remarks. “Proud of what we accomplished but not satisfied” and “stay on the right track” were clearly what the GM wanted to communicate.
• Pagano. Pace made it clear the hiring was made by Nagy, not him. Nagy used the two words I expected to here: attacking and aggressive.
• Parkey was brought up almost immediately. Two things: (1) Pace sounded like Parkey was going somewhere else. (2) Nagy said Parkey didn’t mention Today Show appearance in their exit interview, and seemed displeased with the whole ordeal. He made it clear it was a “me” gesture not a “we” one. Parkey is gone.

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• Prediction: Patrick Mahomes is going to be the first NFL quarterback to need Tommy John surgery.
• The Chiefs catch everything and I’m glad some national folks are finally noticing. When you watch the Chiefs weekly you notice that all Mahomes has to do is get the ball in the general vicinity of his pass catchers. Every single one of them has great hands. Mahomes isn’t particularly accurate yet and he doesn’t have to be.
• Chiefs clearly saw something on tape and got their hands up on the defensive line. Andrew Luck couldn’t get a ball beyond the line of scrimmage for the first quarter and a half.
• Colts offensive line was abysmal, including All Pro guard Quenton Nelson. If you block the Chiefs, you can rip them apart in the secondary but the Colts never got them blocked.
• 273 rushing yards for the Rams? In a playoff game? Against a good Cowboys defense? How is that even possible? The Rams are not a particularly difficult team to defend. Take out their run game and make the quarterback throw it 35 times. How are Rod Marinelli and Kris Richard managing to get to sleep?
• Sean McVay needed that win. The “what has he won” crowd was starting to grow in numbers and volume. In fairness, it’s not McVay’s fault that Kliff Kingsbury and Matt LaFleur – two supremely unqualified individuals, but McVay friends – are now head coaches in the NFL. McVay put in nine years as an NFL assistant.

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